THE EXTRA SEASON
Del Olaleye: If you are locked into college football recruiting, you are among friends
Del Olaleye
Jan 31, 2018, 5:29 am
Alabama won the national title, but winning again may happen because of events in the next week. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Plenty of people think the College Football season ended when Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa hit Devonta Smith for the game winning touchdown in the national title game. Those people would be wrong and maybe you should disassociate yourself from them. Smith, the WR who caught the pass, wasn’t on Alabama’s roster at this time last year. He didn’t even decide he wanted to play for the Crimson Tide until Feb. 1, 2017. Smith is one of many elite high school prospects who wait until National Signing Day to make a decision on where to play college football. In some cases the journey to a decision is a three-year process. Late January to early February is closing time in college football. We’re gonna talk a little ‘crootin.
In Alabama’s comeback win against Georgia two different freshmen caught touchdown passes. The aforementioned Tagovailoa was a freshman as well. Tagovailoa played the entire second half after replacing an ineffective Jalen Hurts. Standing next to the freshman signal-caller for most of the second half was top-ranked running back and true freshman Najee Harris. Harris wasn’t featured in the first half but finished the game as Alabama’s leading rusher. The first of Tagovailoa touchdowns went to another highly touted freshman, Henry Ruggs III. Four freshmen all contributed to Alabama’s comeback. Ruggs, just as in the case of Smith, waited till the very end to decide to play for Alabama. Game-changing talent everywhere. All just out of high school.
Securing that talent is the lifeblood of any program and the pursuit of that top end talent turned perhaps the biggest curmudgeon in college football into someone we don’t recognize. It is the only viable explanation for why Nick Saban of all people is doing the cupid shuffle in some kid’s living room. Thankfully the recruit decided to film the whole thing and now Saban has gone viral. I’m not sure Saban knows what “going viral” is but he just did it. If I was that kid I’d commit to Tennessee. I fear what Saban will do him as retribution once the wining and dining is over. Saban isn’t alone in his apparent out of character actions. Adults of all backgrounds will tweet directly at kids who are considering playing for their favorite school. If a high-profile kid tweets something as simple as “Where the FSU fans at” you can expect over 300 RTs and 3,000 likes in response.
Showing twitter love is really the public face of a fanbase and their obsession. Message boards are where the real underbelly of following recruiting exists. Every major school has more than one board. The basic models can be found at Rivals and 247sports. You’ll find the real diehards at fan-run sites. Posters on those board will spend the entire month of January tracking what obscure city an assistant is traveling to. If they want to be updated about which players have made the decision to take an official visit to their school there is an app for that. Analyzing the words an 18-year old kid texts to a reporter about his college plans is absolutely a thing as well. Understand this, if you haven’t rationalized away a recruit picking your rival over your favorite team then you’re not a true college football fan.
Posters on message boards during the stretch run of recruiting season can be placed into easily recognizable categories.
Optimist: Believes their coaches are recruiting monsters. Any kid who shows their team any type of attention can be snagged. They are usually disappointed on National Signing Day because there is no way any coaching staff can live up to their expectations
Pessimist: They believe every recruit is playing the coaches for fools. They post things like: “Player X is just using the official visit as a free vacation. We’re wasting our time.” Pessimists position themselves as realists. The Pessimist thinks their job is to keep the the Optimist’s expectations in check.
Above the Fray: This poster will tell the board that NSD (National Signing Day) doesn’t matter a bit if the coaches don’t “coach’em up.” They will also point out that it is a little weird that grown men are so focused on the whims of 18 year old kids.
Insider: This poster somehow, someway has inside information. They may have a “source” on the coaching staff. They might be a family member of a recruit. Sometimes a local high school coach decides to interject. They know a guy who knows a guy.
Troll: A troll takes a run at everyone. Sometimes the troll pretends to be the Insider. This poster plays on the admittedly irrational emotion of other posters who really want a recruit to play for their favorite school. They are the worst.
If you happen to fall into four of the five categories you’re more than ok. You’re amongst friends and we understand. If you fall into the fifth and final category you’re not ok and everyone hates you. Once again, you’re the worst.
We’re a week away from the official end of this college football season( NSD is Wed. Feb. 7th) and less than two months away from the start of the 2018 season. Syracuse starts spring practice March 3rd and thank the college football gods for that.
No one wants to pay attention to baseball in March.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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