PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE
Del Olaleye: In a win-or-lose-it-all championship scenario, who do you trust more -- Ken Giles or James Harden?
Del Olaleye
Apr 11, 2018, 6:03 am
Ken Giles with one out to win it all? Or James Harden with the last shot? Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Who do you trust? It a simple question with no simple answer. I’m not trying to be existential. I talk about sports for living. My capacity for higher thinking is limited to Netflix and naps. Fandom is based on belief. If your favorite team broke your belief why would you even watch? The Astros provided people reasons to believe time after time in the 2017 season. That belief was solidified with a World Series win. I think most people trust the Astros to come through. One central figure in their title run failed enough on the field to erode any trust fans may have had in him. Not just the fans by the way. His manager stopped believing in him as well. We’ll get to him later.
The Rockets have done everything in their power to wipe away the end of the 16-17 season. They set a franchise record in wins well before the season was over. The acquisitions of P.J. Tucker, Chris Paul and Luc Mbah a Moute have brought a defensive focus that was absent in the past. They have the soon to be crowned MVP and a possible coach of year candidate. But do you trust them? Specifically, do you trust their most important piece?
The question of trust prompted me to create a high pressure hypothetical and go around the office and ask for a gut reaction and answer. Remember when I wrote one hundred words ago or so “We’ll get to him later”? Well now is later. The man who’s postseason performance eroded the trust placed in him is Ken Giles. He’s been a topic of conversation throughout the Astros hot start. He’s not the only one to create trust issues by failing in the postseason. One player who has a chance to gain some trust back is James Harden. For this scenario we’ll call him “Elimination James.” He earned that nickname with a string of bad performances in series clinching exits.
Scenario 1:
Ken Giles is facing Bryce Harper in Game 7 of the World Series in Washington. It is the bottom of the ninth and the bases are loaded with two outs. The Astros lead 5-4. An out and the Astros win the World Series. If Harper gets a hit, the Nationals win.
Scenario 2:
The Rockets trail the Cavs by one in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. It is Rockets ball with 15 seconds to go. Lebron James tells the world “I’ve got 13.” Elimination James vs Lebron for the NBA title. Harden makes the shot and the Rockets win the title. If he misses, the Cavs win it all.
I created these two hypotheticals and walked around the office and laid them out for my co-workers. I asked one question. Who do you trust to get their job done more?
The Responses:
Raheel Ramzanali - Not Giles
James Weddington - Giles
Michael Carrell - Elimination James
Robert Harris - Elimination James, “he’s a true closer.”
Tyler Frisby - Not Giles
Tyler Scott - Not Giles
Beautiful Andrew - Not Giles
Lance Zierlein - Giles
Jong Lee - Not Giles
Joel Blank - Elimination James
Barry Lamanick - Elimination James
Nick Sharara - Not Giles
Ron Culver - Not Giles
The Sean Salisbury Show? It was Unanimous - Not Giles
Lance and James used probability and math to pick Giles. The math is in Giles’ favorite to get the job done in their opinion. Only Barry, Joel and producer Robert Harris picked Harden to succeed. The majority of the office went with “Not Giles.” They didn’t believe in Harden, they just believed in Giles less.
So who do you trust?
The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.
As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.
Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.
Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.
But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.
More to the story
Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.
So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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