PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE
Del Olaleye: In a win-or-lose-it-all championship scenario, who do you trust more -- Ken Giles or James Harden?
Del Olaleye
Apr 11, 2018, 6:03 am
Ken Giles with one out to win it all? Or James Harden with the last shot? Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Who do you trust? It a simple question with no simple answer. I’m not trying to be existential. I talk about sports for living. My capacity for higher thinking is limited to Netflix and naps. Fandom is based on belief. If your favorite team broke your belief why would you even watch? The Astros provided people reasons to believe time after time in the 2017 season. That belief was solidified with a World Series win. I think most people trust the Astros to come through. One central figure in their title run failed enough on the field to erode any trust fans may have had in him. Not just the fans by the way. His manager stopped believing in him as well. We’ll get to him later.
The Rockets have done everything in their power to wipe away the end of the 16-17 season. They set a franchise record in wins well before the season was over. The acquisitions of P.J. Tucker, Chris Paul and Luc Mbah a Moute have brought a defensive focus that was absent in the past. They have the soon to be crowned MVP and a possible coach of year candidate. But do you trust them? Specifically, do you trust their most important piece?
The question of trust prompted me to create a high pressure hypothetical and go around the office and ask for a gut reaction and answer. Remember when I wrote one hundred words ago or so “We’ll get to him later”? Well now is later. The man who’s postseason performance eroded the trust placed in him is Ken Giles. He’s been a topic of conversation throughout the Astros hot start. He’s not the only one to create trust issues by failing in the postseason. One player who has a chance to gain some trust back is James Harden. For this scenario we’ll call him “Elimination James.” He earned that nickname with a string of bad performances in series clinching exits.
Scenario 1:
Ken Giles is facing Bryce Harper in Game 7 of the World Series in Washington. It is the bottom of the ninth and the bases are loaded with two outs. The Astros lead 5-4. An out and the Astros win the World Series. If Harper gets a hit, the Nationals win.
Scenario 2:
The Rockets trail the Cavs by one in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. It is Rockets ball with 15 seconds to go. Lebron James tells the world “I’ve got 13.” Elimination James vs Lebron for the NBA title. Harden makes the shot and the Rockets win the title. If he misses, the Cavs win it all.
I created these two hypotheticals and walked around the office and laid them out for my co-workers. I asked one question. Who do you trust to get their job done more?
The Responses:
Raheel Ramzanali - Not Giles
James Weddington - Giles
Michael Carrell - Elimination James
Robert Harris - Elimination James, “he’s a true closer.”
Tyler Frisby - Not Giles
Tyler Scott - Not Giles
Beautiful Andrew - Not Giles
Lance Zierlein - Giles
Jong Lee - Not Giles
Joel Blank - Elimination James
Barry Lamanick - Elimination James
Nick Sharara - Not Giles
Ron Culver - Not Giles
The Sean Salisbury Show? It was Unanimous - Not Giles
Lance and James used probability and math to pick Giles. The math is in Giles’ favorite to get the job done in their opinion. Only Barry, Joel and producer Robert Harris picked Harden to succeed. The majority of the office went with “Not Giles.” They didn’t believe in Harden, they just believed in Giles less.
So who do you trust?
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Wichita, Kansas – Saturday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars (31-4) take on the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-8) in a highly anticipated second-round showdown of the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars, dominant in the Big 12 with a 22-1 record, bring the nation’s top-ranked defense to the court, while the Bulldogs, the West Coast Conference powerhouse, counter with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
Defense vs. offense: The ultimate battle
Houston boasts the best defense in the Big 12, holding opponents to just 57.9 points per game on 38.1% shooting. The Cougars will be tasked with slowing down a Gonzaga squad that averages 84.6 points per game over its last 10 outings and shoots an impressive 50.1% from the field.
On the other side, Houston’s offense is averaging 72.1 points per game in its last 10 contests, a figure that will be tested against a Gonzaga defense allowing 67.6 points per game. The Cougars have a slight edge from beyond the arc, making 8.1 three-pointers per game compared to Gonzaga’s 7.3 allowed.
Key players to watch
For Houston, LJ Cryer has been the go-to scorer, averaging 15.2 points per game, while Milos Uzan has stepped up recently, contributing 14.7 points over the last 10 games. The Cougars will also lean on their defensive intensity and ability to force turnovers to disrupt Gonzaga’s rhythm.
Gonzaga is led by Graham Ike, who is averaging 17 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Khalif Battle has also been a key contributor, posting 15.3 points and 1.6 steals per game in the past 10 contests. The Bulldogs’ ball movement will be crucial, as they average 20.4 assists per game in their last 10 contests, a stark contrast to Houston’s 9.0.
Game outlook
Houston enters as a 5.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 140.5 points. If the Cougars can impose their defensive will and limit Gonzaga’s transition game, they stand a strong chance of advancing. However, if the Bulldogs find their offensive groove early, Houston may be in for its toughest test of the tournament so far.
Expect an intense, physical battle where the team that dictates the tempo will likely punch its ticket to the Sweet 16.