Don’t Panic!

Despite what Patrick Creighton says, Texans early offseason is a success

Brian Gaine has done a solid job so far in free agency. Houstontexans.com

It’s now been a full week since the NFL offseason kicked off with numerous player signings negotiated in the days leading up to the official start date. In the eyes of Texans fans, the lack of big name signings on the offensive line and Tyrann Mathieu being the only big name secondary addition may look like Brian Gaine is failing. Fear not. The lack of huge deals is a sign of strength and clarity of purpose in the front office.

It’s too early for Gaine to say it was his plan all along to not overspend for free agent talent. It’s too early to say they chose not to meet exorbitant salary demands instead of admitting that players just didn’t want to come to Houston. But no matter what, we can all be happy that the future of the Texans’ salary cap is still healthy. And that’s the best news to come from an offseason that didn’t see all the best players available come to Houston on bargain contracts.

I know salary cap health is not a sexy topic but I am one of the few who adhere to the religion of NFL economics. I believe firmly in getting players at a number where value and cost meet. That means negotiating contracts that give the players a reasonable value for their services while protecting the team’s future ability to acquire more talent without having to shed important depth or risk massive amounts of dead money. There are exceptions to this, and when those players are available it’s OK to overpay. But that doesn’t happen too often.

I say all this because it’s exactly what the Texans’ GM has done in his first rodeo. Obviously, his biggest signing of the week was Mathieu, who he brought in on a 1-year, $7 million contract. The secondary was one of the two major needs heading into free agency and this is a home run signing. Mathieu’s play-making ability could be a huge boon for a defense looking to return to glory after a year in the basement. But he comes with injury concerns and the one-year contract, at a price tag below what he could have been worth when fully healthy, gives him and the Texans a season to decide his true value. If he doesn’t work out then there’s no long-term commitment to another free agent bust. If he makes it through unscathed then the Texans will have the ability to negotiate another deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the start of the next league year.

The rest of the signings may not be the blockbusters we were hoping for, but each one is a good signing anyways. Let’s continue with the secondary. The Texans brought in Aaron Colvin from the Jaguars at four years and $34 million. He may have $18 million of that guaranteed at signing but for a young defensive back with upside who can immediately be plugged into the slot cornerback position the full structure of the deal is what makes it so great. He has two years to develop before he can be released at minimal loss to the Texans. That’s right; he has just two years to prove himself. After that the dead money is only $2 million in 2020 and $1 million in 2021. If he outplays some of his peers then he may be kept while they are let go.

The other signings garnering attention are the three offensive linemen who were brought in to improve upon last year’s disaster. Senio Kelemete has a contract that only guarantees $5 million over its three years, but the dead money after one is $2.25 million. Zach Fulton was brought in for four years, but has no dead money after two. And much like Tyrann Mathieu, Seantrel Henderson was given only one year at a low price.

Those three signings are players who graded out better than anyone the Texans played at the position last season. Their numbers aren’t outstanding, which is why they signed for so little money. But this year there wasn’t much to go after in the front five. The only one worth chasing was the former Patriot Nate Solder and even he wasn’t considered one of the top at his position. He was just the best of this year’s group. Gaine didn’t sign him, but that’s not a bad thing. A left tackle who is only above average, about to enter his 30s is probably not the safest of bets at $15.5 million per year for four years.

Remember what I said earlier about signing players where value and cost meet? I believe each of these five players were signed right about where those meet and that’s a sign of a successful first week of free agency. No bank was broken just because there was a huge need at the position.

I know what you’re thinking: “I want big name players who will help us win a championship in 2018!” WRONG! You should be wanting exactly what you’re getting this year. You’re getting one of the best defensive front sevens returning to health being supplemented with smart, cheap additions in the secondary. You’re getting a slight upgrade to an offensive line that, with a healthy Deshaun Watson, was part of the highest scoring offense in the NFL. All of this without being tied down to contracts that could prevent future signings by eating up future cap space.

I’ve seen a lot of articles lately discussing how the Astros management got it right by suffering through a few bad years to rebuild the team the right way with young talent and smart signings. The Texans are going to have to go through something similar. If you looked at the mediocre 9-7 teams and thought they were just a player away from a championship you weren’t looking closely at the money. Having players like Brian Cushing signed for big dollars and declining play, bringing in unproven free agents on big contracts, and just flat out whiffing on draft picks have all contributed to a roster that must be repaired one player at a time.

Everything I’ve seen this offseason indicates that the plan is in place to do just that. If the Texans want to put themselves in the category of teams that win consistently behind a franchise quarterback they will need to make sure they have the cap space and the wisdom to make the right signings at the right price. They currently have about $31 million left to work with this year and there might be good veteran players cut after the draft that the Texans want to bring in. There’s also the ability to roll over part of the salary cap to next year. Whatever they wind up spending less than 89% of the cap number can be useful if someone worth the big money comes available in 2019.

Whatever happens, rest assured that so far, you’re in good hands. Take care of your salary cap and your salary cap will take care of you.


 

 

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Houston couldn't keep up

Astros fall to Blue Jays as Toronto gets homer-happy

Houston's bats couldn't keep up with Toronto's Saturday night. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

With an offensive clinic in the opener on Friday night, which helped them handily defeat the Blue Jays, the Astros returned to Minute Maid Park Saturday with a chance to secure another series. Toronto had other plans, though, reversing roles with Houston by getting big home runs to even the series.

Final Score: Blue Jays 8, Astros 4

Astros' Record: 17-16, third in the AL West

Winning Pitcher: Steven Matz (5-2)

Losing Pitcher: Cristian Javier (3-1)

Toronto flips the script and turns on their offense against Javier

Toronto flipped the script from the night before early in this middle game of the series, dealing damage to Cristian Javier, who so far in 2021 had been able to limit his amount of earned runs. After retiring the first four batters he faced, a one-out walk in the top of the second set up the Blue Jays' first hit of the night, a two-run home run by Cavan Biggio, giving them a 2-0 lead over Houston.

After a leadoff home run made it a 3-0 score, Javier would deal with the fallout of more walks in the top of the third, issuing two to set up a two-out two-RBI double to give the Jays a commanding 5-0 advantage. Javier would battle back and complete five full innings, getting one out into the sixth before a walk would prompt Dusty Baker to make the call to the bullpen. His final line: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 91 P.

Alvarez keeps mashing as Houston tries to claw back into it

Javier would exit with at least some runs on the board in support of him, with Yordan Alvarez hitting a two-run opposite-field homer in the bottom of the fourth to cut the lead to three runs. Alvarez accounted for another run in the next inning, coming through with an RBI-single to make it 5-3, which is where the game stood as Andre Scrubb would take over in the top of the sixth.

Scrubb finished that inning for Javier and returned for a 1-2-3 seventh to keep it a two-run game. Bryan Abreu was the next reliever, and he, too, was able to retire the Blue Jays in order in the top of the eighth. The Astros continued to chip away at Toronto's lead, getting another run in the bottom of the inning on an RBI by Yuli Gurriel to make it 5-4 heading to the ninth.

Toronto evens the series

Brooks Raley entered to try and keep it a one-run game with a clean inning, but instead, two runners would reach on a walk and error before Joe Smith would enter to try and strand them. Instead, a two-out home run put the game back out of reach at 8-4, with Houston coming up empty in the bottom of the inning, setting up a rubber match in the finale.

Up Next: This series's third and final game will be an afternoon start of 1:10 PM Central on Sunday. Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.76 ERA) will try to add more wins to his record for Houston, while Nate Pearson will be making his 2021 debut for Toronto.

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