Every-thing Sports
Can this Rockets team repeat what the '94-'95 team did?
Jan 15, 2019, 7:10 am
Photo by Tim DeFrisco/ALLSPORT/Getty Images
We have lived watching an era of sports in which we've been blessed to have seen a ton of all-time greats. There have been some of the greatest individual, team, and league seasons that can be put up against any in history and argued to have been the greatest.
With that said, we have also seen history repeat itself. Kobe Bryant was the closest thing we've seen to Michael Jordan. Tom Brady has eclipsed anything we thought about Joe Montana and John Elway. Steroid Era aside, we have seen home run records fall, .400 has been remotely threatened a handful of times, and some of the most dominate pitching in a hitter-friendly era.
But have we ever seen a season in any sport, from any franchise come close to what this year's Rockets team may be able to mimic when it comes to the '94-'95 team did? Before you get started saying "Jermaine has lost his damn mind again," hear me out.
I know full well the '94-'95 team won back to back titles and this team has yet to win one. I know that team hold a special place in the city of Houston's collective hearts, and this one tends to hold a special place as a pain in the city's collective ass. But there are some similarities worth paying attention to.
Let's start with the obvious. Each of these teams featured a dominant alpha dog that was/is the centerpiece of everything. Hakeem Olajuwon and James Harden are the two greatest players in this team's history. Both will be in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame (Olajuwon already is). Both won league MVP the previous season. Olajuwon infamously lost out on back to back MVP awards to rival David Robinson of the Spurs and made him pay dearly in the playoffs. With the stretch Harden is currently on, he may win back to back MVP awards, but if another player's team finishes higher in the league standings, he may be given the award over Harden. In this regard, I'm specifically looking at Russell Westbrook as it refers to this article for historical parallels being that they have the possibility of meeting in the playoffs. The Thunder currently sit in third place in the Western Conference while the Rockets are fourth.
That '94-'95 team also made the key trade for Clyde Drexler two days after the All-Star game to help boost their run to a title. This year's Rockets team has been off kilter and desperately need to make a trade to help them down the stretch run. While much of this team's struggles are due to injury, the struggles are similar. This year's team is 25-18 through 43 games played, and the '94-'95 team was 28-15 at the same point in the season, finished 47-35 and won the NBA title from the sixth seed (lowest ever to win it all).
Am I saying that this year's Rockets will repeat what one of the most beloved teams in franchise history has done? It may not be likely, but it is possible. This year's Rockets are 9-8 against all current Western Conference playoff teams, including an impressive 6-3 against the four teams ahead or tied with them in the current standings. That 3-5 record versus the teams below them is bothersome, but not as off-putting as it could be. If this team doesn't get healthy, make a deal for reinforcements, and James Harden doesn't maintain his level of play throughout the playoffs, none of this will come true. Admit it; these two seasons do look eerily similar. How sweet would it be if they ended similarly?Most Popular
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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