WAITING GAME
Everyone is thinking it, we just need to bite the bullet
Jul 7, 2020, 4:56 pm
WAITING GAME
I certainly understand – and agree with – players who are refusing to go to Orlando to restart this NBA season interruptus. What I don't get is, why baseball is so hot to get a shortened, bizarre season with weird rule changes underway. And why not push the NFL and college football back to 2021, when there may be a vaccine for COVID-19 or at least a better handle on the pandemic?
When hopefully sports can pick up, where they left off, safely with stands filled with cheering fans.
Sports are dangerous in 2020. Coronavirus is a highly contagious, dangerous disease that we still know very little about. Testing is unreliable, with possible false negatives, and results are taking an extra-long time to come back. Six NBA training facilities have shut down because players and staff are testing positive. A bubble isn't 100-percent guaranteed to keep players safe from catching COVID-19. I hear the NBA say the bubble in Orlando will be "as safe as possible." That's not very comforting … "as possible."
Baseball is our most statistic-driven sport. With a season shortened to an unnatural 60 games, and teams' schedules based more on geography than rivalry, fans won't – or shouldn't – take 2020 seriously. What if a player hits .400 for the 60-game season, like when Chipper Jones was hitting .408 after 60 games in 2008? Would anybody accept that a player in 2020, not Ted Williams in 1941, is the last player to top .400 for a season? How will it look if a starting pitcher, who gets only 10 starts the whole season to protect his arm, wins the Cy Young Award with a 7-3 record? Every plate appearance, every pitch thrown, will have a big fat, silly asterisk attached to it.
The Astros won't be traveling to New York to face the Yankees and their angry fans. The current plan has no fans anywhere. You won't hear "Get your peanuts" and "kill the ump" and, depending on the city, "cheaters!" Baseball is a game that thrives on sound as much as images. Baseball will be a silent movie in 2020.
Unless you're LeBron James chasing Michael Jordan's six NBA titles, or the Freak going for back-to-back MVP trophies, or James Harden and Russell Westbrook putting an exclamation point on their Hall of Fame careers, what's to be gained by entering a boring, claustrophobic bubble to complete the 2020 NBA season?
You don't have to be a risk-management expert like George Costanza to know resumption of the NBA season is fraught with danger. San Antonio Spurs star DeMar DeRozan is 30 years old and can be an unrestricted free agent next season. The Spurs currently are 27-36, on the outside looking in for an unlikely playoff spot. DeRozan already has been paid $20 million of his $27.8 million salary for this season. He is on Forbes list of the 100 highest-paid athletes in America. He could be in line for another huge-money contract next year. So he's going to go to Orlando, probably to play eight meaningless games, and risk an injury that could cost him a long-term max contract in a few months? DeRozan already has made $121 million over his 10-year career. He doesn't need to travel to Orlando, live in a social experiment environment, to pick up a few measly millions. For what, for the Spurs to clinch a non-playoff spot?
DeRozan, and every other player, isn't just risking a career-ending knee or Achilles injury. We don't know everything about the long-term health consequences of COVID-19. The disease could leave behind lifelong kidney problems or reduced lung capacity. Basketball is a sport that requires ultimate cardio conditioning. Most NBA players will be eligible for free agency, and more and more money, in the next few years. The NBA says no player will be punished if he decides to pass on Orlando. I'd sit out Disney for sure. Pro sports stars are used to living privileged, posh lives. They live in mansions and drive luxury cars and eat in private rooms at the best restaurants. They're going to have trouble cooped up in hotels with guards at the doors to keep them inside. You really think Mrs. Star Athlete isn't going to the salon for the next four months.? I know "normal" women who can't go two weeks without getting their toes done.
I talked with a high school football coach recently. He said football is the perfect petri dish for spreading COVID. We do know that the No. 1 way to spread coronavirus is for an infected person to cough or breath on other people. That's the whole idea behind social distancing and wearing masks. We've all seen football games played in cold weather, where you see the cold, misting breath of opposing lineman collide only inches apart. Then the players huddle up with their helmets practically touching. Prominent college coaches reportedly are OK with delaying the season until spring. Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley describes a spring season as "very doable." So why not "doable" it?
A few baseball teams, including the Houston Astros, had to cancel practice this week because there was an unexpected delay in getting back players' coronavirus test results. Is this any way to run a major sport? Mike Trout, the best player in baseball, isn't sure he will play the 2020 season. Trout and his wife are expecting their first child. Other stars like Kris Bryant and Buster Posey aren't confident that their health will be protected if they play this year. David Price and more have flat out said no to 2020. One pro soccer team had to quit the MLS season because so many of its players have tested positive for coronavirus. Boston Celtics star Gordon Hayward's wife is pregnant. Hayward already has promised to leave the Orlando bubble when his fourth child is born in September. NBA players are physically fit young men. Many have wives and girlfriends, sometimes both. It's not natural, certainly not fun, for players to enter a biosphere without their partners.
And for what? To play games without fans, with fake crowd noise pumped into arenas to simulate "real game" conditions in crunch time? The games will be televised, possibly on tape delay because some players will be mic'd up and the league doesn't want fans at home to hear naughty language? Eavesdropping on what really is said on the court and during timeouts may be the best part of televising these games. And they're taking that away from us, too?
A big part of 2020 already is a washout. Sports, athletes and fans, should wait until it's safe to come out and play.
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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