BUYERS OR SELLERS?

Examining 3 trade scenarios that could benefit the Astros

Examining 3 trade scenarios that could benefit the Astros
Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images.

The MLB trade deadline is just four days away. It's expected to be a quiet deadline considering the unique circumstances. First, there's a limited group of sellers due to the expanded playoff picture. Only the Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, and Pittsburgh Pirates are for sure sellers, with the Los Angeles Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, and Texas Rangers falling in the likely category. The rest of MLB is either firmly in the playoff hunt or has a puncher's chance. Lastly, teams are restricted to trading players within the 60-man player pool of talent between big league rosters and alternate training sites. There is no minor league baseball this year, meaning the pool of players to deal from is significantly smaller.

The Astros were rumored to be possible sellers after their early season skid, but they've righted the ship a bit and look likely for the playoffs. Jim Crane has said that the Astros "are in a position to be aggressive." A title would go a long way towards helping the franchise image, erasing a lot of the doubts about the legitimacy of the 2017 title.

Team needs

Most Astros fans will jump to the assumption that pitching is the Astros biggest need. That isn't the case. The Astros staff has actually been respectable, especially considering the circumstances, and the big pitching acquisitions will be coming from the injured list, not other franchises. Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy are both progressing. If the foursome of Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers, and Urquidy are rolling, that rotation can win a World Series with any sort of supporting offensive cast. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier provide reliable and respectable starting pitching depth if one of those four fall prey to injury.

Similarly, the bullpen will see better days. Roberto Osuna is pushing to come back by the end of the regular season, and Brad Peacock's return is around the corner. Once Osuna and Peacock rejoin Ryan Pressly, and the emergent Blake Taylor and Enoli Paredes, the Astros bullpen will be good enough to win a World Series as well.

Lastly, the current staff is locked up for 2021. Every one of the names above is either under contract or club control for next season. The Astros dealt for Greinke last year as insurance for losing Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, and more.

The real need is on the offensive side. First, superstars George Springer and Jose Altuve are underperforming. Alex Bregman is on the shelf and Yordan Alvarez is out for the year. Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel are all impending free agents. There's need for offensive help in the short term and there's room to add in the long term as insurance for one or multiple of the quartet of impending free agent bats leaving in the offseason.


Trade #1

Houston Astros GET: OF/DH Jorge Soler

Kansas City Royals GET: P Josh James, 3B Abraham Toro

Soler is under club control through 2022, meaning the Astros would get him for the rest of 2020 and two more seasons. He's off to a hot start in 2020, batting .252/.341/.495 with 7 homers for the lowly Kansas City Royals. His $7.3M price tag (non pro-rata) is more than feasible for the Astros to add to the payroll.

Soler really shines in some of the advanced metrics. He's in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 97th percentile in barrel percentage. Put simply, Soler hits the ball really hard on a line more so than almost any other hitter in baseball. Now, he does swing and miss a lot, as he's in the 6th percentile in K-rate and the 8th percentile in whiff percentage. However, the Astros have done such a good job at building a lineup with spectacular plate discipline that the presence of one boom-or-bust hitter would be okay. The Astros player development staff is fantastic at what they do. If they could find a way to help Soler cut down on that swing-and-miss just a little bit, the Astros would have an absolute star on their hands.

In return, the Royals get James and Toro. While both players have had rough seasons, both still have plenty of value. James was thrust into the starting rotation, a role he's clearly not a good fit for. He had pitched better after his move to the bullpen before hurting himself in Colorado. James would slot in nicely at the back of Kansas City's bullpen, where he'd have a defined role. He has the benefit of being young and controllable while also being someone that's been there and done that in the playoffs for a Kansas City pitching staff that has a lot of young guns on the way.

Similar to James, Toro has been thrust into action due to injury. Aledmys Diaz was "a week to 10 days away" a little over a week ago, so the Astros true infield utility option should be back soon, meaning Toro will see his playing time drop precipitously. However, Toro is a switch hitter with a track record of success at the minor league level that can play multiple infield positions. He'd immediately be the best first baseman on the Kansas City roster, and he'd be a lot more likely to find success with regular playing time.

CF George Springer

2B Jose Altuve

3B Alex Bregman

LF Michael Brantley

1B Yuli Gurriel

SS Carlos Correa

DH Jorge Soler

RF Kyle Tucker/Josh Reddick

C Martin Maldonado

Trade #2

Houston Astros GET: OF Andrew Benintendi

Boston Red Sox GET: P Bryan Abreu, P Brandon Bielak

Andrew Benintendi has been on a steep downhill track since what seemed to be his breakout year in 2018, but that doesn't mean that he can't steer his career back in the right direction. The Red Sox would admittedly be selling low on Benintendi, but it's becoming clearer that they might have a little bit of a rebuild on their hands, and Benintendi isn't likely to be a factor in their next title run.

It's questionable whether or not Benintendi could even be helpful in a 2020 title run for the Astros, as he's on the IL with a rib cage injury. Injuries have been a common theme for Benintendi the last couple of years. Because of the Astros current outfield situation, Houston has the luxury of allowing Benintendi to get healthy; any production they get from him in 2020 would be gravy. The real value in Benintendi lies in 2021 and beyond, as he'd be a cheap and controllable replacement for the free agent outfield bats on the roster. Benintendi has already settled for next season and will make $6.6M. He's also under club control for 2022 and 2023 before hitting the market.

Benintendi's batted ball profile is nothing like it was in 2018. He's hitting the ball on the ground a ton, he's not hitting it hard very often, and he's swinging the bat way more than he used to. It really speaks to an injured player that doesn't trust his swing, and it is reminiscent of Ryan Zimmerman in 2016. Zimmerman was a player with a track record of success, but injuries forced him to change his swing and he hit the ball on the ground way too often. With health and swing changes, Zimmerman hit over .300 with 36 homers in 2017. Benintendi could do the same thing in orange and blue.

Trade #3

Houston Astros Get: 1B Josh Bell

Pittsburgh Pirates Get: P Josh James, 3B Abraham Toro

Similar to Benintendi, Bell would be another buy low option for the Astros. Coming off of his first All-Star appearance in 2019, Bell has had a brutal 2020 season. He's slashing .198/.242/.286, and has a WAR of -0.2. If the Astros could get Bell on track for 2020, that would be fantastic, but he'd ultimately serve as the replacement for Yuli Gurriel in the long term, as Bell is under club control through 2023.

There are reasons for optimism with Bell. For one, his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is about .030 points below his career mark, meaning he's been a little unlucky. Next, he's still hitting the ball hard, as he's in the 86th percentile for exit velocity and the 75th percentile for hard hit rate. However, his barrel percentage has dropped 8% from last season, his K-Rate has jumped 11%, and his BB-Rate has dropped 7%. He's striking out a ton, barely walking, and hitting the ball hard, but just not doing it on a line. There's obviously a great hitter in there, because he's coming off a season where he hit .277/.367/.569 with 37 homers for a terrible Pirates baseball club. It would be up to the Astros coaching staff and player development department to help Bell find that version of himself again.

Bell could be a coup for the Astros, and if the Pirates are buying into the struggles and are willing to play ball on James and Toro, then the Astros should absolutely be interested. However, the Pirates likely see the value left in that bat as well and might not be willing to sell this low on their former All-Star.

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The Astros have their work cut out for them. Composite Getty Image.

Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.

Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.

Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.

“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.

First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.

“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”

Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.

Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.

However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.

“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”

The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.

“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”

Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.

He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.

He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.

Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.

While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.

To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.

Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.

“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”

Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.

Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.

“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.

The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.

“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”

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