NBA PLAYOFFS
Fred Faour: 5 thoughts on the Rockets 104-101 win over the Timberwolves in Game 1
Apr 16, 2018, 5:59 am
Chris Paul (left) was not good in Game 1. James Harden was. Houston Rockets/Facebook
The real season has started for the Rockets, and how they perform in the playoffs will determine how this team is remembered. The opening series against the Minnesota T Wolves will be a test, as Joel Blank writes, but one the Rockets should pass. They did in Game 1, but it was not easy.
Here are five quick thoughts from the Rockets Game 1, 104-101 win over the Timberwolves.
1) Don't panic: Yes, the game was close and in doubt until the final seconds. The Rockets needed a huge effort from James Harden (44 points) to escape with a win. He came up big in the fourth quarter in particular. But the Rockets can play a lot better. The live by the 3, die by the 3 mentality almost killed them. They were a brutal 10 of 37 from behind the arc in Game 1. Harden was 7 of 12, making the rest of the team 3 of 25. That simply won't cut it. Expect a much better effort in Game 2.
2) The Wolves can improve, too, but how much? Karl-Anthony Towns had just eight points and the Wolves seemed to ignore him in the paint. He should be much more involved going forward. But it's also hard to expect 16 points out of Derek Rose every night. Still, a nice, balanced game from the Wolves, who had every chance to steal Game 1.
3) Chris Paul needs to be much better. He had just 14 points on 5 of 14 shooting, but most telling was a season high six turnovers, including two really bad ones late in the game when the Rockets should have closed it out. They will need more from him if they are to accomplish their goals and protecting the basketball late in games should be priority No. 1.
4) Mismatch on the bench: The Rockets should have the advantage in depth, but they were outscored 38-16 by the Wolves bench in Game 1, part of the reason the Wolves hung around so long.
5) Closing the door: Harden's big fourth-quarter effort got it done, but the Rockets tried their hardest to fail to close out the game. They gave up a free fast break after a missed free throw where everyone stood around, thinking there was another free throw to come. Paul's awful pass gave the Wolves a chance at a late-tying three. The game basically became a Harden one on one, run down the clock contest. That's fine if Harden is hitting his shots, and he was in Game 1. But they lose this game a lot of nights. The late-game questions will continue, especially if they blow a game like this.
The bottom line: Losing a Game 1 at home is never ideal, so the Rockets did well to escape. The Timberwolves came in having already essentially started the playoffs with a play-in game, while the Rockets have been coasting for weeks, so the signs all pointed to Minnesota throwing a scare into them. Having said that, Paul will be better in Game 2, Mike D'Antoni will make some adjustments that will hopefully lead to better 3-point shooting, the bench should be more competitive and the Rockets should improve as the series goes on.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.