OFF TO THE RACES
Fred Faour: First look at the 20-horse field for Saturday's Kentucky Derby
May 2, 2018, 2:36 pm
Justify is your 3-1 favorite for the Derby. Santaanita.com
Saturday is Derby Day, and if you get a chance go to Sam Houston Race Park to watch the races and come by and say hello. I will be in the ESPN VIP section. There will be a lot of content here over the next couple days. I will have a Derby trends story for SportsMap on Thursday, actual picks and plays (including my trfiecta) for Friday and hopefully a video as well for Thursday. For pregame.com, I will be doing a podcast with RJ Bell on Thursday and premium plays there on Friday as well.
For now, here is a breakdown of every horse in the race (betting number/post position is next to each horse's name):
1. FIRENZE FIRE
Trainer: Jason Servis
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Record: 9 starts, 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds.
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He runs the race of his life. Showed some promise as a 2-year-old but is probably better as a sprinter/miler and it would take a career-best effort to even sniff the board.
2. FREE DROP BILLY
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Record: 8-2-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He shows massive improvement. His first start of the year was solid, but has tailed off. Like the 1 horse, he showed promise as a 2-year-old. Might be primed for a big effort but likely a midpack finisher.
3. PROMISES FULFILLED
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Record: 5-3-0-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can wire this group. He is the speed of the race, and if you can toss his last effort he could hang around a long time. More likely he gets pressed by the likes of Justify and perhaps Flameaway and can’t handle the pressure for the full distance. But if the other speed fails to break he could last a while.
4. FLAMEAWAY
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Record: 9-5-2-0
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can get an easy lead and run the race of his life, no easy feat considering the horse to his inside. He is a nice runner and usually gives his all but seems a little below the top tier and likely up against it from a pace standpoint.
5. AUDIBLE
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5-4-0-1
Odds: 8-1
He will win if...He can improve just a little, and he certainly can. Dominated the Florida preps for this and is going in the right direction. One of four Pletcher horses with a real shot, although jockey John Velazquez opted for another of Pletcher’s contenders. He has a real chance here.
6. GOOD MAGIC
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 5-2-2-1
Odds: 12-1
He will win if...Brown, a terrific trainer, has him ready, and he very well could. The horse won the BC Juvenile to cap off a solid 2-year-old campaign. He flopped in his 3-year-old debut, but needed that race, and bounced back with a grind-it-out win in a slow Blue Grass Stakes. Will need to be better, but Brown has been pointing to this and should have him on go. Serious contender at a nice price.
7. JUSTIFY
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 3-3-0-0
Odds: 3-1
He will win if...He really is as good as he has looked in his three starts. He is incredibly fast, Baffert knows how to win Derbys (four) and the horse will be able to make his own luck. Still, he did not race at 2, and by now you have heard that horses that did not race as 2-year-olds have not won the Derby since 1882. He was also beating small fields in California, and will be tested here like never before. Short price is unappealing, but he will have to be dealt with.
8. LONE SAILOR
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: James Graham
Record: 8-1-3-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He improves significantly and some of the big dogs fail to fire. He is a really nice, solid horse, but has yet to run anything good enough to win this. More likely he is in the mix for a minor award.
9. HOFBURG
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record: 3-1-1-0
Odds: 20-1
He will win if...He takes a big step forward off his solid second in the Florida Derby. That was just his third race, and he ran very well. Mott is one of the most respected trainers in the business, and would not be here if he did not think the horse had a shot. Well bred to handle the distance. A live, sneaky long shot.
10. MY BOY JACK
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Record: 10-3-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...The race collapses and he gets the jump on the other closers. An interesting sort, he does not seem fast enough to win this, but could easily mess up the back end of the tris and superfectas. Another solid runner who might be in too deep, but would not be a shock for a minor award.
11. BOLT d’ORO
Trainer: Mick Ruis
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Record: 6-4-1-1
Odds: 8-1
He will win if...He improves off a strong second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. He was not cranked all the way up for that one, and Justify was able to coast to an easy lead, so he was up against it from a pace standpoint, too. Has yet to run a bad race, should be in the second flight early and should be sitting on a big one. Another serious contender.
12. ENTICED
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Record: 6-3-1-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He gets a clean trip, improves a little and has things fall his way. Was a troubled second in the Wood, but has a stakes win at Churchill as a 2-year-old, a nice late kick and is battle tested. A live long shot.
13. BRAVAZO
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Record: 8-3-1-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...Lukas can find some old magic. This guy is a gutsy sort who won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Lukas horses have a tendency to improve out of nowhere. He will need to do that, because he just does not seem fast enough to compete with these.
14. MENDELSSOHN
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Record: 7-4-1-0
Odds: 5-1
He will win if...He can overcome the Dubai curse. No horse has prepped there and made much of an impact on the Derby. But this guy destroyed the UAE Derby field by almost 19 lengths, and also shipped over here to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at 2, so this is not new griound for him. He will be up close, and if he takes to Churchill and the travel was not too much, this should be the horse to end the Dubai drought.
15. INSTILLED REGARD
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Record: 7-2-2-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He won’t. He really has not shown anything even remotely close to winning this. He should improve, but it would be a monumental upset if he had any impact at all.
16. MAGNUM MOON
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 4-4-0-0
Odds: 6-1
He will win if...He can overcome that 1882 bit that we mentioned with Justify. All four starts -- all wins -- have come at 3. He has looked sharp in his last two, but was able to set a slow pace in Arkansas and he won’t be able to do that here. Still, he can stalk a little as well. He drifted in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby and that kind of erratic behaviour can get you beat in Kentucky. Still, a contender.
17. SOLOMINI
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Record: 6-1-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can run his best race yet. Looked like one of the best 2-year-olds out there last year but has not had much luck chasing Magnum Moon at 3 and has not really improved. Will need a big move forward to turn the tables.
18. VINO ROSSO
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 5-3-0-1
Odds: 12-1
He will win if...That win in the Wood Memorial was not a fluke. He had been close in stakes company at Tampa, but exploded when he went to New York. Was it a one-off? Jockey Velazquez had his choice between this one, Noble Indy and Audible, and he chose this guy. Still like the horse that finished second behind him in the Wood a little better but hard to ignore this guy.
19. NOBLE INDY
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 4-3-0-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if.... He improves significantly. He certainly could. The fourth Pletcher horse probably beat the weakest group to get here and has been the least impressive of all of them. But it’s also possible we have not seen his best race yet.
20. COMBATANT
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Record: 7-1-3-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...Well, let’s face it; he probably won’t. But this is the kind of horse I love as an exacta/trifecta back end kicker. His last race was better than it looks on paper, he has a habit of clunking up for second or third and the added distance should help with that. He reminds me a lot of Lookin’ at Lee, another Asmussen runner who did the same thing by running second last year. Love the 50-1 price and will be using him in my plays.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.