Falcon Points
Handicapping the Game of Thrones odds list: Let's make money by betting on who will rule Westeros
Mar 6, 2019, 7:09 am
Game of Thrones has become one of those water cooler shows that everyone talks about. The final season on HBO kicks off in April. And, like all great things, it has a gambling element to it.
Odds Shark put out its current odds on who will wind up sitting on the Iron Throne at the end of the series. There are some surprises to say the least.
Updated odds for who will rule Westeros at the end of Game of Thrones:
Bran +150
Jon Snow +400
Daenarys Targaryen +450
Sansa +800
The Night King +1000
Tyrion +1000
Littlefinger +1200 đź‘€
Arya +1500
Gendry +1500
Jon/Daenerys' baby +1500
Cersei +2000
Jaime +3000
Samwell Tarly +3000
— OddsShark (@OddsShark)
First off, I am a nerd. I make no apologies. I love this series. So we will break down the field for the throne just as we would a horse race and come up with some bets:
We will start off by fading the favorite. It is hard to see a scenario where Bran gets the throne. Plus-150 offers zero value, and besides, who wants a three-eyed raven on the throne? We will pass.There is good value in Jon Snow and Daenarys at +400 and +450, respectively. You have to figure one of them dies, but if you guess right, that's a nice payoff.
Sansa at +800 is a pass as well. A lot of characters ahead of her in line have to die. While it's possible, it's highly unlikely. In short, the race does not set up for her. She did make a nice middle move, but will fade late.
My personal favorite is The Night King at +1000, and not just because I am rooting for him. It would be a dark way for the series to end, and a shocking one at that. If there is anything we have learned from GOT, it's that the show loves to shock us. He has an ice dragon now and looks like a serious contender. Has the lead turning for home and will have to be caught.
While Tyrion would probably make a good king, he also seems to be a stretch. Too many deaths would have to occur and he will likely come up...short...in the stretch? We will pass.
Why is Littlefinger still on the board at all? The last we saw of him, he was dead. That has not stopped characters in the past, but are we really only getting +1200 on the Barbaro of Westeros? Hard pass.
Arya at +1500 would be fitting and there might be some value there, but again, a lot would have to happen. She has sneaky speed, but hard to see her holding on. Pass.
Gendry at +1500 seems like a waste of money. He, like some of the others, will need a lot of help in terms of deaths ahead of him. He is the equivalent of the "wise guy horse" who everybody touts but never wins.
The Snow Dragon baby at the same price is intriguing, however. He/she could easily be on the throne as an infant if both parents die. But then, he actually needs to exist first. Hard for an unborn colt to win a race.
I wouldn't throw out Cersei at +2000. She seems to be two steps ahead of everyone and would we really be shocked if she holds on to win? I know the prophecy says she will die, but count her out at your own risk.
There does not seem to be a scenario where Jaime or Sam wind up winning so I will be tossing both from my tickets.
So I think we can narrow this down to a five horse race - Jon, Dany, Night King, Snow Dragon baby and Cersei. I think my favorite plays would be the Night King and Dany, and you can bet both and catch a profit with either one.
I will play those two; if you toss the favorite, you can play any two of the five listed and come out with a profit. Hey, it gives you an extra rooting interest, right?
We will all find out in a few months who is left standing at the end.
And more importantly, whether or not we cash.
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