Falcon Points
Handicapping the Game of Thrones odds list: Let's make money by betting on who will rule Westeros
Mar 6, 2019, 7:09 am
Game of Thrones has become one of those water cooler shows that everyone talks about. The final season on HBO kicks off in April. And, like all great things, it has a gambling element to it.
Odds Shark put out its current odds on who will wind up sitting on the Iron Throne at the end of the series. There are some surprises to say the least.
Updated odds for who will rule Westeros at the end of Game of Thrones:
Bran +150
Jon Snow +400
Daenarys Targaryen +450
Sansa +800
The Night King +1000
Tyrion +1000
Littlefinger +1200 đ
Arya +1500
Gendry +1500
Jon/Daenerys' baby +1500
Cersei +2000
Jaime +3000
Samwell Tarly +3000
â OddsShark (@OddsShark)
First off, I am a nerd. I make no apologies. I love this series. So we will break down the field for the throne just as we would a horse race and come up with some bets:
We will start off by fading the favorite. It is hard to see a scenario where Bran gets the throne. Plus-150 offers zero value, and besides, who wants a three-eyed raven on the throne? We will pass.There is good value in Jon Snow and Daenarys at +400 and +450, respectively. You have to figure one of them dies, but if you guess right, that's a nice payoff.
Sansa at +800 is a pass as well. A lot of characters ahead of her in line have to die. While it's possible, it's highly unlikely. In short, the race does not set up for her. She did make a nice middle move, but will fade late.
My personal favorite is The Night King at +1000, and not just because I am rooting for him. It would be a dark way for the series to end, and a shocking one at that. If there is anything we have learned from GOT, it's that the show loves to shock us. He has an ice dragon now and looks like a serious contender. Has the lead turning for home and will have to be caught.
While Tyrion would probably make a good king, he also seems to be a stretch. Too many deaths would have to occur and he will likely come up...short...in the stretch? We will pass.
Why is Littlefinger still on the board at all? The last we saw of him, he was dead. That has not stopped characters in the past, but are we really only getting +1200 on the Barbaro of Westeros? Hard pass.
Arya at +1500 would be fitting and there might be some value there, but again, a lot would have to happen. She has sneaky speed, but hard to see her holding on. Pass.
Gendry at +1500 seems like a waste of money. He, like some of the others, will need a lot of help in terms of deaths ahead of him. He is the equivalent of the "wise guy horse" who everybody touts but never wins.
The Snow Dragon baby at the same price is intriguing, however. He/she could easily be on the throne as an infant if both parents die. But then, he actually needs to exist first. Hard for an unborn colt to win a race.
I wouldn't throw out Cersei at +2000. She seems to be two steps ahead of everyone and would we really be shocked if she holds on to win? I know the prophecy says she will die, but count her out at your own risk.
There does not seem to be a scenario where Jaime or Sam wind up winning so I will be tossing both from my tickets.
So I think we can narrow this down to a five horse race - Jon, Dany, Night King, Snow Dragon baby and Cersei. I think my favorite plays would be the Night King and Dany, and you can bet both and catch a profit with either one.
I will play those two; if you toss the favorite, you can play any two of the five listed and come out with a profit. Hey, it gives you an extra rooting interest, right?
We will all find out in a few months who is left standing at the end.
And more importantly, whether or not we cash.
How 3 major x-factors could tip the scales in Texans-Colts: Week 1
Sep 5, 2024, 7:27 pm
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texansâ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astrosâ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. Itâs not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 âStros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in â19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
Itâs highly unlikely but itâs still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and thatâs while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The DâBacks are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesnât have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time heâs Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesnât initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) canât so Alexâs ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips donât fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If youâre an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: âGo Dodgers Go!â Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and thatâs a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursdayâs 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros havenât pulled out a single game theyâve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold âStros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.