Falcon Points

Handicapping the Game of Thrones odds list: Let's make money by betting on who will rule Westeros

Fred Faour
Mar 6, 2019, 8:09 am

Game of Thrones has become one of those water cooler shows that everyone talks about. The final season on HBO kicks off in April. And, like all great things, it has a gambling element to it.

Odds Shark put out its current odds on who will wind up sitting on the Iron Throne at the end of the series. There are some surprises to say the least.

First off, I am a nerd. I make no apologies. I love this series. So we will break down the field for the throne just as we would a horse race and come up with some bets:

We will start off by fading the favorite. It is hard to see a scenario where Bran gets the throne. Plus-150 offers zero value, and besides, who wants a three-eyed raven on the throne? We will pass.

There is good value in Jon Snow and Daenarys at +400 and +450, respectively. You have to figure one of them dies, but if you guess right, that's a nice payoff.

Sansa at +800 is a pass as well. A lot of characters ahead of her in line have to die. While it's possible, it's highly unlikely. In short, the race does not set up for her. She did make a nice middle move, but will fade late.

My personal favorite is The Night King at +1000, and not just because I am rooting for him. It would be a dark way for the series to end, and a shocking one at that. If there is anything we have learned from GOT, it's that the show loves to shock us. He has an ice dragon now and looks like a serious contender. Has the lead turning for home and will have to be caught.

While Tyrion would probably make a good king, he also seems to be a stretch. Too many deaths would have to occur and he will likely come up...short...in the stretch? We will pass.

Why is Littlefinger still on the board at all? The last we saw of him, he was dead. That has not stopped characters in the past, but are we really only getting +1200 on the Barbaro of Westeros? Hard pass.

Arya at +1500 would be fitting and there might be some value there, but again, a lot would have to happen. She has sneaky speed, but hard to see her holding on. Pass.

Gendry at +1500 seems like a waste of money. He, like some of the others, will need a lot of help in terms of deaths ahead of him. He is the equivalent of the "wise guy horse" who everybody touts but never wins.

The Snow Dragon baby at the same price is intriguing, however. He/she could easily be on the throne as an infant if both parents die. But then, he actually needs to exist first. Hard for an unborn colt to win a race.

I wouldn't throw out Cersei at +2000. She seems to be two steps ahead of everyone and would we really be shocked if she holds on to win? I know the prophecy says she will die, but count her out at your own risk.

There does not seem to be a scenario where Jaime or Sam wind up winning so I will be tossing both from my tickets.

So I think we can narrow this down to a five horse race - Jon, Dany, Night King, Snow Dragon baby and Cersei. I think my favorite plays would be the Night King and Dany, and you can bet both and catch a profit with either one.

I will play those two; if you toss the favorite, you can play any two of the five listed and come out with a profit. Hey, it gives you an extra rooting interest, right?

We will all find out in a few months who is left standing at the end.

And more importantly, whether or not we cash.

hbo westeros iron throne odds game of thrones

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SCARED MONEY DON'T MAKE MONEY

Romeo Crennel lays out why he doesn't have any regrets about decision to go for 2

The Texans didn't have an answer for Derrick Henry. Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

Romeo Crennel made a valorous call that might have costed the Houston Texans from winning their second consecutive game on Sunday. Up by seven with 1:50 left in the fourth quarter, Crennel decided to call a two-point conversion following Deshaun Watson's one-yard touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks.

During the two-point conversion, Watson had a look at an open Randall Cobb, but Titans' defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons got a hand on the ball to deflect the pass. The failed conversion allowed the Titans to take a 42-36 victory over the Texans inside Nissan Stadium. Tennessee scored 13 unanswered points, which included a seven-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Tannehill to A.J. Brown to send the game into overtime.

"I think I would do it again," Crennel said during his media availability on Monday. "You are on the road against a divisional opponent who is undefeated, and if you could get that two-point conversion — you shut the door on them. We had a guy open, but unfortunately, the ball got tipped and we did not make it. I would do it again because it was a good choice."

The decision to not kick the field goal caused somewhat of an uproar, but it is understandable why Crennel made the call. Crennel had faith in Watson to put the Texans in a position to close the game, similar to his 4th-and-4 call during last week's victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In the end, Crennel's risky decisions could stem from the lack of faith he has in the Texans' depleted defense.

Houston's defense hit an all-time low against the Titans. They gave up a franchise-worst 601 total yards — with Derrick Henry accounting for 212 yards on 22 carries. But despite their struggles against the run, the Texans' secondary were just as faulty. They gave up a total of 338 yards through the air and allowed Tannehill to go 8-for-9 down the field during the Titans' final drive of regulation.

Had Houston's defense made a stop during the closing seconds of the fourth quarter, the Texans could have ended the game 2-0 under their interim head coach.

"I wanted to go ahead and get the two points — I felt like that would have put the game out of reach for them," Crennel said. "If we had gotten it, we would have been in much better shape. But we did not get it. We did not perform well in overtime, and they [Titans] won the game."

Following Sunday's heartbreaking loss, Texans safety Justin Reid said it best, "Had we converted on the two-point conversion, this would be a totally different conversation. So it is what it is."

Up next, the 1-5 Texans will look to bounce back from defeat against the 4-1 Green Bay Packers, inside NRG Stadium on Sunday. Kick-off is at 12:00 PM CT.

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