PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Here are 4 keys for the Rockets in tonight's Game 1 against Minnesota
Apr 13, 2018, 7:47 am
Clint Capela has to stay out of foul trouble. Jason Miller
The Houston Rockets kick off their 2018 playoff campaign tonight at 8 pm against Karl Anthony-Towns and the eighth seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. After a regular season sweep of the Timberwolves, the Rockets enter this first round of the playoffs heavily favored to advance. These presumptions are based primarily off of the perceived superiority of Houston's backcourt, experience, and depth; but as we've all seen in the NBA playoffs, nothing is guaranteed.
The overall blueprint for the Rockets is simple enough for even the most casual fan to remember and recite: get the ball to James Harden, stop them on defense, and then get the ball back to James Harden. And while this has proven to be a very effective, albeit primitive tactic, there are a few other factors that are going to prove integral to Houston starting out 1-0 against a hungry Minnesota team motivated by the return of shooting guard Jimmy Butler. Here are a few keys to tonight's matchup:
Key #1: Keep Clint Capela out of foul trouble
If there is a foul in the paint, I want to see four other hands raised trying to take the blame. Capela is tasked with weathering hurricane Karl Anthony-Towns, and being the most capable Rocket, it will take a concerted effort to avoid foul trouble. KAT can make practically every shot from inside, in addition to possessing the ability to finish through contact and make his free throws. Capela won't be able to stop KAT completely, but he's far and away Houston's best chance at slowing him down. He can't do that from the bench, however.
Key #2: Force Jimmy Butler to pass
If Minnesota is going to have a chance against the Rockets, it's going to be because of a strong inside performance from KAT coupled with a strong outside performance from Jimmy Butler that forces Houston to respect both players and stretch their defense. While the Timberwolves have other capable options in the backcourt, their offense will focus on getting Butler the ball. Houston's defense is very switch heavy, so whoever they match up with at the beginning of a half court set is rarely who they end up guarding at the end of the play. That said, it's important that whoever ends up on Butler forces him to pass--and preferably not to KAT. If the Rockets can make Butler pick up his dribble and rely on his supporting cast to produce, Houston should run away with this series.
Key #3: Keep up the tempo
A Rockets team that runs is a Rockets team that wins. Houston will force Minnesota to play small ball, largely in part due to P.J. Tucker’s ability as a wing to guard larger forwards while also stretching the court from beyond the arc. It's an overall mismatch as a result, but if Minnesota wants to steal a win or two, they'll need to somehow force the Rockets to slow down and play half court basketball where they'll rely on KAT to overwhelm. Other big-man reliant teams like the Pelicans have given Houston trouble this season, so it's not completely out if the realm of possibility. Their backcourt was lights out in those meetings however, and asking any team in the league to keep up with the Rockets’ impending 3-point assault is a fool's errand. If Houston can avoid getting bogged down in half court basketball and force fast break transition points, they'll be fine.
Key #4: The bench needs to maintain
The main reason Houston is so heavily favored in this matchup is because of how deep their bench goes. Even without the stalwart defense from Luc Mbah a Moute due to injury, the Rockets will trot out reigning sixth man of the year, Eric Gordon, as well as veteran center Nene, who has been virtually saran-wrapped all season to keep him fresh and ready to terrorize backup bigs. Add in the sharpshooting maverick renegade named Gerald Green, and stretch big Ryan Anderson, who can nail shots from five feet or more beyond the arc, and you're looking at one if the deepest benches in the league. Barring a legendary coming out party from one of the Timberwolves’ bench players, they simply don't match up. All that Houston's bench needs to do is simply maintain. Stay healthy, provide what they've been consistently providing, and The Rockets move on to round two.
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Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.