PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Here are 4 keys for the Rockets in tonight's Game 1 against Minnesota
Apr 13, 2018, 7:47 am
The Houston Rockets kick off their 2018 playoff campaign tonight at 8 pm against Karl Anthony-Towns and the eighth seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. After a regular season sweep of the Timberwolves, the Rockets enter this first round of the playoffs heavily favored to advance. These presumptions are based primarily off of the perceived superiority of Houston's backcourt, experience, and depth; but as we've all seen in the NBA playoffs, nothing is guaranteed.
The overall blueprint for the Rockets is simple enough for even the most casual fan to remember and recite: get the ball to James Harden, stop them on defense, and then get the ball back to James Harden. And while this has proven to be a very effective, albeit primitive tactic, there are a few other factors that are going to prove integral to Houston starting out 1-0 against a hungry Minnesota team motivated by the return of shooting guard Jimmy Butler. Here are a few keys to tonight's matchup:
If there is a foul in the paint, I want to see four other hands raised trying to take the blame. Capela is tasked with weathering hurricane Karl Anthony-Towns, and being the most capable Rocket, it will take a concerted effort to avoid foul trouble. KAT can make practically every shot from inside, in addition to possessing the ability to finish through contact and make his free throws. Capela won't be able to stop KAT completely, but he's far and away Houston's best chance at slowing him down. He can't do that from the bench, however.
If Minnesota is going to have a chance against the Rockets, it's going to be because of a strong inside performance from KAT coupled with a strong outside performance from Jimmy Butler that forces Houston to respect both players and stretch their defense. While the Timberwolves have other capable options in the backcourt, their offense will focus on getting Butler the ball. Houston's defense is very switch heavy, so whoever they match up with at the beginning of a half court set is rarely who they end up guarding at the end of the play. That said, it's important that whoever ends up on Butler forces him to pass--and preferably not to KAT. If the Rockets can make Butler pick up his dribble and rely on his supporting cast to produce, Houston should run away with this series.
A Rockets team that runs is a Rockets team that wins. Houston will force Minnesota to play small ball, largely in part due to P.J. Tucker’s ability as a wing to guard larger forwards while also stretching the court from beyond the arc. It's an overall mismatch as a result, but if Minnesota wants to steal a win or two, they'll need to somehow force the Rockets to slow down and play half court basketball where they'll rely on KAT to overwhelm. Other big-man reliant teams like the Pelicans have given Houston trouble this season, so it's not completely out if the realm of possibility. Their backcourt was lights out in those meetings however, and asking any team in the league to keep up with the Rockets’ impending 3-point assault is a fool's errand. If Houston can avoid getting bogged down in half court basketball and force fast break transition points, they'll be fine.
The main reason Houston is so heavily favored in this matchup is because of how deep their bench goes. Even without the stalwart defense from Luc Mbah a Moute due to injury, the Rockets will trot out reigning sixth man of the year, Eric Gordon, as well as veteran center Nene, who has been virtually saran-wrapped all season to keep him fresh and ready to terrorize backup bigs. Add in the sharpshooting maverick renegade named Gerald Green, and stretch big Ryan Anderson, who can nail shots from five feet or more beyond the arc, and you're looking at one if the deepest benches in the league. Barring a legendary coming out party from one of the Timberwolves’ bench players, they simply don't match up. All that Houston's bench needs to do is simply maintain. Stay healthy, provide what they've been consistently providing, and The Rockets move on to round two.
C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.
But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”
Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.
Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.
“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”
The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.
They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.
Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.
Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.
Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.
“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”
While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.
He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.
Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.
Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.
“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”
The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.
“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”
The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.
Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.