CARLOS CORREA DEEP DIVE

Here are the critical factors the Astros must consider before extending Carlos Correa

​Carlos Correa celebrates a home run in ALDS Game 1
What do the numbers say about him? Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Carlos Correa's walk-off homer forces Game 6 in ALCS

Carlos Correa endeared himself in the heart of Astros fans during his 2020 postseason run. He talked the talk off the field, and he walked the walk on the field. Correa slashed .362/.455/.766 in the postseason, hitting more home runs in 13 postseason games than he did in 58 regular season games. His performance has sparked discussions about whether or not the Astros should seek an extension with him this offseason.

Aside from the gaudy postseason numbers, he asserted himself as a team leader. The images and stories of Correa talking to Framber Valdez on the mound, telling Dusty Baker he was going to hit the walk off, and saying this is the most fun he's ever had playing baseball are fresh in everyone's minds.

However, that's just thirteen games out of a 667 game career (counting the postseason). The postseason games are the most important, and Correa seems to show up when the lights shine brightest, but the Astros have to assemble a team good enough to play under the bright lights for Correa to get that moment to shine. What do the numbers say about him?

Hard Hit % - 41.8%

Barrel % - 5.9%

K% - 21.8%

BB% - 7.3%

Chase % - 31.8%

(Numbers from 2020)

By the numbers, Correa didn't have the greatest regular season in 2020. He slashed .264/.326/.383 with a 97 wRC+, meaning he was 3% worse in run production that the average hitter. He was tied for 14th amongst qualified shortstops with Nick Ahmed of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Francisco Lindor (100 wRC+) was one spot ahead of Correa, while Orlando Arcia (96 wRC+) was one spot behind. His Hard Hit % was in the 65th percentile in MLB, and his Barrel % was in the 34th percentile.

His expected numbers suggest that the dip in performance wasn't a matter of bad luck. His .256 xBA is slightly worse than his actual batting average. His .406 xSLG is slightly better than his actual .SLG, but not by much. Correa had a wOBA of .305 and a nearly identical xwOBA of .306. Lastly, his .324 BABIP was actually a .021 point jump over last year, and it's a touch above his career mark of .316.

Correa likely struggled during the regular season because of a downturn in production to the opposite field. Correa pulled the ball 49% of the time in 2020. That was 16th amongst qualified hitters, and it's a complete outlier for him in his career. It was 14.4% higher than 2019, and it was 15.6% higher than his career average. In 2019, Correa had a 9% HR% on batted balls to the opposite field. He had an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH with an average launch angle of 27°. His batting average was .368 with a xBA of .349 to that part of the field. In 2020, Correa had a 0% HR% to the opposite field (meaning he didn't hit one). He had an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH with an average launch angle of 30°. His batting average was .382, but his xBA was .259. Keep in mind, Correa missed most of the 2019 season with injury, so the sample sizes aren't all that different (57 AB's in 2019 versus 34 AB's in 2020).

It's a similar story for the straightaway portion of the field. In 2019, Correa had an 11% HR%, 90.4 MPH avg. exit velocity, 8° avg. launch angle, .370 BA, and .424 xBA between the gaps. In 2020, Correa had a 5% HR%, 88.5 MPH avg. exit velocity, 4° avg. launch angle, .349 BA, and .362 xBA.

That all changed in the postseason.

Here is an overlay of Correa's spray charts from postseason games in which he hit home runs. Five of his six postseason homers were to center field, and three of the five to center field were on the opposite field side of second base.

Correa also made some physical changes at the plate over the course of the season, particularly late in the season, which means that the uptick in offensive performance is related to a physical change, not just some sort of ability to turn it on in the postseason. Correa mentioned that he and Alex Cintron compared video to his rookie season to look at hand positioning, and Correa started to mimic that. Then, there's the already-famed story of Correa and Cintron running to the cages mid-game to open up his shoulders and be less closed off. All of those changes are clearly visible on video.

On the left is Correa early in the 2020 season when the Astros were in San Diego playing the Padres. In the middle is Correa's first career home run in 2015. On the right is Correa's walk-off homer against Tampa Bay. There are four clear and obvious changes. First, he's holding the bat nearly straight up, which he wasn't doing at the beginning of the season. It supports Correa's claim that he and Cintron were looking at video from 2015 and trying to mirror that swing again. Then, there's the change with Correa's shoulders. In the first photo, if it weren't so grainy, you could read "C-O-R-R-E" in Correa. Same deal with the second photo, except it's even more clear. In the third photo, you can only read "C-O" which also supports the story of that mid-game adjustment with Cintron. Third, Correa has a lot less forward body lean with his torso. Correa hasn't spoken as to why he made that change, but it is probably tied to shoulder and bat orientation and helps him feel more comfortable. Lastly, Correa opened his stance, which is almost always going to help with vision.

The changes all probably help Correa feel more free when he swings. His postseason swing was much more North-and-South than East-and-West. His hands are able to work freely underneath his shoulders, and he has to do a lot less work to clear space for his hands to work. It's encouraging that the uptick in performance is clearly tied to physical work in the cage.

Correa did bring solid defense to the table as well. He's a finalist for the AL Gold Glove Award at SS along with Niko Goodrum of the Detroit Tigers and J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners. Correa will likely win the award. However, the defensive metrics are mixed on his performance.

Errors don't count as an advanced statistic, but they still bring value to the table. There's a direct correlation between making errors and giving up free bases. Now, just because a player doesn't make many errors doesn't mean he's an elite defender, but it's hard to be an elite defender if you make lots of errors. Correa takes care of the baseball, as his one error was tied for the least amongst shortstops. Correa also performed glowingly by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). His DRS of 8 was second amongst shortstops, second behind only Dansby Swanson. However, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) had Correa at -0.7, which is below average. His OAA (Outs Above Average) of 0 roughly agrees with his UZR rating. Essentially, the numbers say Correa makes the routine plays about as well as anybody, but he isn't particularly rangy. His arm is also impressive and brings a lot to the table. Correa isn't a bad defensive shortstop by any means, he's above average, but this is probably the only Gold Glove he'll ever be nominated for, much less win.

When Correa is healthy and on his game, he is one of the most electric players in baseball. The problem is he hasn't been healthy and on his game nearly enough in his career. Over his five full major league seasons, Correa has missed 203 out of 708 games. He's been unavailable, mostly due to injury, in 30% of games over that time. That's quite a bit. The three injuries that have caused him to miss the most time are all back and torso related. The fact that the back issues have recurred is alarming, and it's something to monitor. It is really hard to be a good baseball player with a bad back. Credit to Correa, he stayed healthy for all of 2020, but it was only a 60 game season, which means there were fewer opportunities for injury. If he has another healthy season in 2021, it'll be enough to put the injury prone label to rest, but he hasn't done it yet.

And again, there's the issue of his performance being up-and-down over the years. In 2018, Correa missed 52 games due to injury, and had a wRC+ of 100, meaning he was exactly league average. That means he's been only league average or worse in two of his six big league seasons. Correa played extremely well in 2019, racking up 3.2 WAR and 143 wRC+, but he only played 75 games.

Between COVID, injury history, and streaky performance, there's too much uncertainty to give Correa a long term deal right now. However, his peaks, leadership ability, and apparent willingness to stay in Houston certainly make him a candidate for one. 2021 will be a "prove it" year for Correa, and it will go a long way in ranking him amongst the crop of shortstops hitting the free agent market after next year. Is Correa at the top of that market with Francisco Lindor, or is he at the bottom of that market with Javy Baez?

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Houston's offense added some legit firepower. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Texans addressed their most glaring needs by selecting offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery and a pair of Iowa State receivers in the NFL draft.

“The idea was to try to add good players, good people that are young, tough, hungry, that want to win, that put the team first,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “These picks exemplify that.”

The Texans got players that could help them quickly despite not picking in the first round for a second straight season. They didn’t have a first-round pick last year because of trades, including the one to move up and get defensive end Will Anderson with the third overall pick in the 2023 draft.

This season they shipped the 25th overall pick to the Giants on Thursday in exchange for several picks.

Their first selection in this draft was receiver Jayden Higgins, who was taken with the second pick of the second round. They added Ersery later in the second round with the 48th overall selection and picked up Higgins’ teammate Jaylin Noel in the third round.

Ersery could be Houston’s left tackle of the future after the offseason trade of five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Ersery started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota where he was a third-team All-American last season.

He comes to Houston to help shore up a line that allowed C.J. Stroud to be sacked 52 times last season, which was the second most in the NFL.

The Texans added veteran tackle Cam Robinson this offseason and Ersery will compete with him to protect Stroud’s blind side as the Texans attempt to reach the playoffs for a third straight season under coach DeMeco Ryans.

The 6-foot-6, 331-pound Ersery, who was the Big Ten’s Offensive Lineman of the Year last season, can’t wait to play with Stroud.

“C.J. Stroud is a baller,” Ersery said. “I’m so honored to be a guy to help out and come in and help protect him. I’m just super stoked and I know I’m going to a great organization.”

Cyclones teammates

Higgins and Noel join the Texans to add more depth at receiver to complement star Nico Collins with Tank Dell recovering from a serious knee injury and Stefon Diggs gone to the Patriots.

Higgins, who has been compared to Collins, had 87 receptions for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns last season for the Cyclones and Noel added 80 catches for 1,194 yards and eight scores.

After Higgins was drafted, Noel never imagined he’d be heading to Houston, too. He shared on social media a fortune he received from a Chinese restaurant that read: “Look forward to an unplanned reunion with an out-of-touch friend.”

Noel later shared his feelings about joining Higgins on the roster.

“I was surprised,” Noel said. “But they’ve seen that 1-2 punch all year. They’re going to be very happy with those selections for sure.”

Caserio said a talk with Iowa State coach Matt Campbell on Friday helped him make his final decisions on the receivers.

“He was effusive in his… belief and praise of both Higgins and Noel,” Caserio said.

The Texans now have three receivers from Iowa State on their roster after drafting Xavier Hutchinson in the sixth round in 2023.

Overcoming obstacles

Ersery and his four siblings were raised by a single mother and experienced homelessness when he was a child despite her working multiple jobs. He is thrilled to have put those struggles behind him as he embarks on his next chapter.

“I’ve got that hardworking mentality from her,” he said. “So, growing up times were tough but now I’ve got my foot in the door and I look forward to trying to change some things around.”

Caserio loves guys with work ethic like Ersery’s and said that’s one reason why they believe he’ll fit in with the Texans.

“If you come in and put your head down and work and just get better, take advantage of your opportunities, you’re going to have a shot to have success and do a lot of good things for the organization,” he said.

What’s in a name?

Along with Noel, the Texans added another Jaylin in this draft with they picked USC cornerback Jaylin Smith in the third round.

“We got Jaylins, and we got all these guys around. It’s going to be hard to keep them straight,” Caserio joked on Friday after they picked Smith.

Then on Saturday, the Texans added another player with the same name, albeit with a different spelling, when they took Penn State safety Jaylen Reed in the sixth round.

That gives them four players with the same name and three different spellings as the three rookies join starting safety Jalen Pitre on the team.

Doubling up

Along with drafting two players from Iowa State, the Texans also added a pair of players from Southern California when they picked running back Woody Marks in the fourth round after drafting Smith in the third.

Marks ran for a career-high 1,133 yards with nine touchdowns for the Trojans last season after transferring from Mississippi State.

Be sure to watch the video below as NFL.com Draft Analyst Lance Zierlein shares his thoughts on all the Texans' picks!

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