COMEBACK SEASON
Here's what the future could look like for Justin Verlander and the Astros
Sep 24, 2020, 9:04 am
Composite photo by Brandon Strange
Justin Verlander announced last week that he would undergo Tommy John Surgery, ending his season, and possibly ending his career in an Astros uniform. However, is his career in Houston really done? Many people have effectively crossed him off the Astros roster for 2021, but is that really the case? Verlander will likely undergo surgery this week or next, and Tommy John is an 11-13 month recovery process depending on how the player responds. 11 months slates Verlander as a late August return, even giving him the opportunity to get a few rehab outings under his belt in the twilight of a minor league season (assuming there will be a minor league season). 12 months allows him to come back at this time next year, which means he'd build up his pitch count in simulated games before returning to game action in an Astro uniform. 13 months means...well...the Astros better be in the World Series if he is going to pitch on his current contract again.
Yes, the timeline is dicey. If he does return next season, he's returning at the most high leverage portion of the season, diving immediately into the deep end of high stress innings. However, if you're Justin Verlander, why wouldn't you do that?
Verlander is not a typical Tommy John recipient. He will be the second oldest pitcher to ever undergo Tommy John surgery and attempt to return. Jamie Moyer got Tommy John in the offseason following 2010 as a 47 year old, missed the entirety of 2011, and returned to pitch one last season in 2012. Moyer, while 10 years older than Verlander will be when he gets his surgery, was a very different pitcher. He pitched at the bottom of rotations, his fastball couldn't break a pane of glass, and he wasn't a workhorse. Verlander is a defending Cy Young Award winner who throws in the high 90s and is used to being the workhorse. Does Verlander really want to take all of 2021 off so he can get an invite to spring training somewhere and scrap for a roster spot, or does Verlander want to come back and pitch next year, prove his worth, and sign a multi-million dollar deal with a guaranteed roster spot? The answer is obviously the latter.
It doesn't take a long time to re-establish value. Rewind to July of 2017. Verlander had ugly and injury riddled seasons in 2014 and 2015 before finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in 2016. It initially looked as if he had returned to his '14 and '15 form in 2017, as he carried an ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00s the entire first half of the season. His final start in the month of July was actually a win against the Astros on the 22nd, where he pitched six innings of scoreless baseball to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 4.29. The Astros famously didn't make any deals at the deadline, and Dallas Keuchel voiced his frustrations that the front office didn't make a move.
Other contenders got arms that Astros fans clamored for. The Dodgers got Yu Darvish from Texas. The Yankees got Sonny Gray from Oakland and Jaime Garcia from Minnesota. The Cubs got Jose Quintana from the White Sox earlier in the month. All of those pitchers, aside from Garcia, were more coveted arms than Verlander at the time. With the exception of one bad start against Texas, Verlander had a fantastic month of August, good enough that the Astros felt comfortable parting with two of their top 10 prospects for him at the waiver trade deadline on the last day of August. Verlander went on to pitch the best he ever has in his career, lead the Astros to a title, finish 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, win the Cy Young in 2019, and sign a two-year, $66M extension.
Two months worth of pitching changed the trajectory of Verlander's career. With his work ethic and drive, he'll push to come back as early as possible, and some magical performances in September and October would be more than enough time to change the narrative of his career again. Verlander wants to pitch into his mid-40s like Nolan Ryan did (or the aforementioned Moyer). Some might think Verlander's days on a Minute Maid mound are over, but in his mind, he'll be back next year, ready to begin the next phase of his Astros career.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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