COMEBACK SEASON
Here's what the future could look like for Justin Verlander and the Astros
Sep 24, 2020, 9:04 am
Composite photo by Brandon Strange
Justin Verlander announced last week that he would undergo Tommy John Surgery, ending his season, and possibly ending his career in an Astros uniform. However, is his career in Houston really done? Many people have effectively crossed him off the Astros roster for 2021, but is that really the case? Verlander will likely undergo surgery this week or next, and Tommy John is an 11-13 month recovery process depending on how the player responds. 11 months slates Verlander as a late August return, even giving him the opportunity to get a few rehab outings under his belt in the twilight of a minor league season (assuming there will be a minor league season). 12 months allows him to come back at this time next year, which means he'd build up his pitch count in simulated games before returning to game action in an Astro uniform. 13 months means...well...the Astros better be in the World Series if he is going to pitch on his current contract again.
Yes, the timeline is dicey. If he does return next season, he's returning at the most high leverage portion of the season, diving immediately into the deep end of high stress innings. However, if you're Justin Verlander, why wouldn't you do that?
Verlander is not a typical Tommy John recipient. He will be the second oldest pitcher to ever undergo Tommy John surgery and attempt to return. Jamie Moyer got Tommy John in the offseason following 2010 as a 47 year old, missed the entirety of 2011, and returned to pitch one last season in 2012. Moyer, while 10 years older than Verlander will be when he gets his surgery, was a very different pitcher. He pitched at the bottom of rotations, his fastball couldn't break a pane of glass, and he wasn't a workhorse. Verlander is a defending Cy Young Award winner who throws in the high 90s and is used to being the workhorse. Does Verlander really want to take all of 2021 off so he can get an invite to spring training somewhere and scrap for a roster spot, or does Verlander want to come back and pitch next year, prove his worth, and sign a multi-million dollar deal with a guaranteed roster spot? The answer is obviously the latter.
It doesn't take a long time to re-establish value. Rewind to July of 2017. Verlander had ugly and injury riddled seasons in 2014 and 2015 before finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in 2016. It initially looked as if he had returned to his '14 and '15 form in 2017, as he carried an ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00s the entire first half of the season. His final start in the month of July was actually a win against the Astros on the 22nd, where he pitched six innings of scoreless baseball to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 4.29. The Astros famously didn't make any deals at the deadline, and Dallas Keuchel voiced his frustrations that the front office didn't make a move.
Other contenders got arms that Astros fans clamored for. The Dodgers got Yu Darvish from Texas. The Yankees got Sonny Gray from Oakland and Jaime Garcia from Minnesota. The Cubs got Jose Quintana from the White Sox earlier in the month. All of those pitchers, aside from Garcia, were more coveted arms than Verlander at the time. With the exception of one bad start against Texas, Verlander had a fantastic month of August, good enough that the Astros felt comfortable parting with two of their top 10 prospects for him at the waiver trade deadline on the last day of August. Verlander went on to pitch the best he ever has in his career, lead the Astros to a title, finish 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, win the Cy Young in 2019, and sign a two-year, $66M extension.
Two months worth of pitching changed the trajectory of Verlander's career. With his work ethic and drive, he'll push to come back as early as possible, and some magical performances in September and October would be more than enough time to change the narrative of his career again. Verlander wants to pitch into his mid-40s like Nolan Ryan did (or the aforementioned Moyer). Some might think Verlander's days on a Minute Maid mound are over, but in his mind, he'll be back next year, ready to begin the next phase of his Astros career.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.