THE PALLILOG

Here's what the trade market could look like for the Texans

Justin Reid and J.J. Watt
Trading J.J. Watt has to be on the table. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Why this key to the Texans' success deserves more attention

If the Texans upset the Packers Sunday (hey, they're only three and a half point underdogs) it's not utterly ludicrous for their football people to cling to a sliver of hope about climbing into the AFC playoff race. Ludicrous maybe, but not utterly ludicrous. A loss that drops them to 1-6…

The NFL trade deadline is a week from Tuesday. The Texans' brain trust (stifle the laughter) has to be exploring trade possibilities for the few players they have with meaningful trade value. Wide receiver Will Fuller is an unrestricted free agent after the season. There is zero chance they use the franchise tag on him. If there is a third round pick to be had for Fuller, you make the deal. They'd also add more than five million dollars in salary cap space. If more than anything else in the world Will Fuller wants to be a Texan going forward (yeah right) they could resign him as a free agent having gotten a third round pick for a loaner. Losing Fuller in free agency would mean at the most the Texans would get a third round compensatory pick, in 2022. If they can move wideout Kenny Stills for anything at all, it's about four million dollars off the books that can be used in the offseason.

The big food for thought Texans' trade piece is J.J. Watt. He's still good though obviously not the guy he was when winning three NFL Defensive Player of the Year awards. If the Texans' organization is absolutely unwilling to trade Watt because of fear of any fan relations hit, the Texans' organization gives another example as to why it has never come remotely close to playing in a Super Bowl. Watt's contract next season calls for 17 and a half million dollars when he'll be 32 years old. If any team offers a first round pick for Watt the Texans basically would be stupid to pass. A second rounder? Probably should take that if the best offer.

The Texans' thus far sub-pathetic run defense does not fall in Watt's lap, but he is not the routine game wrecker he once was when it seemed at least two or three times per game he'd be tackling a ballcarrier about when he took the handoff. Through six games the Texans are yielding a preposterously awful five-point-four yards per carry. Super Bowl LV will be played in February. For now at least. In the 54 prior seasons of the Super Bowl era exactly ZERO defenses have finished a season giving up five-point-four yards per carry or more.

Former Astros GM speaks out

From his sit down with KPRC sports reporter Vanessa Richardson that aired earlier this week, we learned how former Astros' General Manager Jeff Luhnow has been spending at least part of his time since Major League Baseball suspended him and then Jim Crane fired him. Taking spin classes. If Luhnow truly never knew anything about the Astros' cheating scheme (seems doubtful), then he was negligently and shockingly oblivious. It happened on his watch and accountability of course should have included him. He failed to acknowledge that. Whether Crane scapegoated him is another topic, but it's pretty clear Luhnow won't be sending a holiday gift Crane's way.

Rumor has it there's a World Series going on. Relatively few in Houston are watching after they couldn't quite cap their comeback against the Rays to reach a third Fall Classic in four years. The Dodgers are in their third in four years so if they win it they go past the Astros as the top franchise over that span. Five days after the World Series ends George Springer, Michael Brantley, and all other free agents can sign with the team of their choosing.

If the Astros are unwilling to go beyond four years in the 25 million dollars per season range, Springer is probably a goner. He might be anyway. Though Springer is 31 years old his market will be robust. The Connecticut native could draw interest from the Red Sox, Mets, and yes the Yankees. The Nationals, Cardinals, and Giants would all make sensible suitors. The White Sox could be interested and interesting, perhaps more so if A.J. Hinch gets their managerial gig. The Texas Rangers' offense is a joke that could use a big addition for their first season with fans in their new ballpark (with the bonus for them of weakening the Astros), I just doubt Springer would go to a bad team.

Buzzer Beaters:

1. Take your pick: re-sign Springer if you know that means Carlos Correa is gone after next season, or let George go if know it means Correa re-ups.

2. Not one "Oooh!" college football matchup on the schedule this week.

3. Greatest sports Georges: Bronze- Best Silver-Mikan Gold-Brett

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Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.

“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.

While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.

And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.

Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.

The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.

Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.

New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.

Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.

Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.

And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.

HOW THEY PROJECT

1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.

2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.

4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.

5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.

OLD SKIPPERS

When the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.

RELIEF HELP

Several new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.

Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.

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