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We all love football, especially the NFL. There is a reason it is the most popular sport in the country.
The other sports leagues need gimmicks. Baseball is weighing a really dumb playoff plan. The NBA looked at a possible tournament. Anything to try to be more relevant, to try to close the gap on the NFL.
So why is the one sport with the best postseason thinking about messing it up?
Last week, a report came out that the NFL was looking to add two more playoff teams for the 2021 season. Essentially, each league would have seven playoff teams. There would be byes for the top team in each conference. The second-best team would no longer get a bye. Last season, in the AFC, the Ravens would have had a bye. The Texans would have still faced the Bills, and the Patriots would have also faced the Titans. The Chiefs would have hosted the 8-8 Steelers.
In the NFC, San Francisco would have had the bye. The Saints would have played the Vikings, the Eagles would have faced the Seahawks and the Packers would have hosted the Rams. The results likely would have played out the same.
But did we really need to see a Steelers team with no quarterback? Are the extra games worth it?
On the surface, yes. more meaningful games. More to bet on. Could that really be a bad thing?
Yes. One of the things that makes the NFL unique is that it is not easy to make the playoffs. Basketball and hockey let in half the league or more. Letting in more than 12 out of 32 waters things down. Can the playoffs really improve by adding less quality?
The NFL already has it right. Why change it? More money? More teams staying in the race later in the season?
The NFL barely had enough quality teams last season. The playoffs featured upsets, including the Titans knocking off New England and Baltimore. In the end, we got two quality teams in the Super Bowl. Why mess with it?
Greed. Better TV deals. It is just two games, but that's two more high-profile TV games to sell.
Sometimes, sports leagues can outthink themselves. In this case, the NFL does not need to change. Why mess with something that is working? The NFL playoffs don't need improving. Is that Chiefs-Steelers matchup really worth it? Teams like the Colts, Jets, Broncos and Raiders would have been in the playoff mix until near the end of the season. On the surface, this all sounds great.
But at the risk of sounding like "get off my lawn" guy, sometimes the old ways are the best. The NFL has not changed its playoff format in 30 years. During that time, the sport has seen unprecedented growth and become the dominant sports league in America.
Why change what works just to add more money to a multi-billion dollar industry? Why reward more mediocrity in a league that welcomes too much of it as it is?
The playoff expansion appears inevitable, so complaining will do little good. Still, it is a bad idea. Messing with a playoff format that works can go two ways; it could improve the product, but the more likely result is more bad teams, and more mismatches.
At least it guarantees Bill O'Brien stays employed forever, as the 9-7 train will likely get you to the playoffs from here on out.
That is not a good thing, and this is a change that will not be for the better.
Messing with something that has worked for 30 years is a bad decision. But the NFL will make more money, and two average teams will get a chance to get rolled in the first round.
What could possibly go wrong?
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!