LAYING THE POINTS
Here's your hard-luck NFL gambling guide for this weekend
Jan 12, 2021, 1:17 pm
Do the opposite! Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images.
Saints vs Colts: Good, bad & ugly
Recently a new neighbor asked me, "You're in the lame street media (here we go), you got any picks for the games this week?"
You came to the right guy. I work down the hall from the ESPN 97.5 guys. I hear things. You want games? I got games.
I told him: take Alabama (-18.5) over Notre Dame, Clemson (-7.5) over Ohio State, and just because you seem like a good person, here's a third one, the Titans (-7 over Texans). The numbers are too low. These games are guaranteed wipeouts.
Three for three, baby. All losers. Alabama and the Titans didn't cover and Clemson lost outright. I'm good like that. I don't bet because, borrowing from Michael Corleone in Godfather II, the greatest movie ever made, if history has taught me anything, it's that I stink at betting on sports.
I used to work in Phoenix – the boys and me, we all got pretty heavy into sports betting. There was a shuttle flight to Las Vegas. We'd go up after work, sometimes during lunch. Been there, done that, lost my paycheck. True story, swear: I once bet a six-team parlay, all favorites. If they all hit, that's 45 to 1 odds. That's some sweet action. I lost all six games. That's just as hard as winning all six.
If I bet $20 on the Harlem Globetrotters, that would be the night the Washington Generals won, which they haven't done since 1972. If I bet on a 5th grade production of Moby Dick, Ahab would catch the whale and buy drinks for everybody at the Krusty Krab.
When it comes to sports betting, I am George Costanza: "Every decision I've ever made in my entire life has been wrong, be it something to wear, something to eat, it's all been wrong."
So in the spirit of Bizarro World, where "us do opposite of all Earthly things! Us hate beauty. Us love ugliness! Is big crime to make anything perfect," here are my "guaranteed loser" picks for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round playoff games. You know what to do.
Remember, the winners of this weekend's games advance to their respective Conference Championship game.
For Houston Texans fans, let me explain what a Conference Championship game is, because your team has never gotten that far. Conference Championship games are reserved for teams that go deep in the playoffs, with the winners advancing to the Super Bowl. Now, the Super Bowl is a game…
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs. Cleveland Browns: Don't be fooled by the Browns' destruction of the Steelers last weekend. The Steelers were sitting ducks, the most overrated, under-achieving team in the league down the stretch. Security guards at his home stadium think Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield's first name is "Parker." The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes romp, 45-18. Take the Chiefs.
Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens: The Bills are my favorite team to watch this season. Quarterback Josh Allen is the real deal, cannon arm, can run, team believes in him. The Ravens were impressive last week against Tennessee (I lost that one, too), but they have a running back playing quarterback. All in on the Bills, 35-31.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is this year's MVP. Every team should draft a quarterback just to rile up their guy. The team with the better quarterback and better receivers wins in the NFL. That's Green Bay. Although Jake from State Farm says there is no Rodgers Rate, back the Pack, 42-17.
New Orleans Saints (-4) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs: a few years ago, I asked a former NFL quarterback who used to work with me for his Super Bowl pick. He said, "Never bet against Tom Brady in a big game." I took his advice. Ouch! These teams have played twice this year with the Saints winning both times. They say it's hard to beat a team three times, but it's really not. One team is clearly better, and it's the Saints, 27-16.
There you go, four guaranteed losers. See you at your inbox.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.