THE PALLILOG
Here's how the Astros can bury the Rangers' playoff hopes in short order
Aug 1, 2024, 12:29 pm
THE PALLILOG
The American League West race is not down to just Houston and Seattle, but it could be by this time next week. The Astros and Mariners start the weekend in a virtual tie at the top with the Rangers four and a half games back. While the Astros get the stripped down but still pesky Tampa Bay Rays this weekend at Minute Maid Park, the Mariners are home for the elite (but slumping) Phillies, the Rangers are home vs. the Red Sox.
The Rangers are already near dead in the Wild Card race, eight games out of the third spot with three other teams in front of them. If the Rangers lose ground to the Astros this weekend the Astros could then put the reigning World Series Champions to sleep by taking their series in Arlington next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Conversely, if the Rangers hold or gain ground this weekend and then take two of three over the Astros as they did in Houston going into the All-Star break, the three-team derby is on. With the Astros and Rangers having split their 10 meetings so far in 2024, the season series and tiebreaker that goes with it rides on the outcome. But first things first…
Yusei Kikuchi makes his debut on Friday
It's not like when Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, or Zack Greinke joined the Astros for a stretch drive, but Yusei Kikuchi makes his anticipated Astros’ debut Friday night in the series opener against the Rays. It’s evidently an anticipated disaster by many, judging by some of the outraged reaction excoriating General Manager Dana Brown for the trade that sent Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, and Jake Bloss to Toronto. The Astros overpaid, especially in comparison to what the Dodgers gave up to acquire the better Jack Flaherty from the Tigers, but given market conditions the Astros did not egregiously overpay.
Kikuchi needs to deliver and there are reasons to be concerned, but off his (underwhelming) performance to date this season he is better than Spencer Arrighetti and better than Bloss. That makes for an incremental improvement to the Astros’ starting rotation. In the very tight AL West battle with Seattle every little bit matters more. Kikuchi has always had trouble giving up home runs, 17 of them allowed this season in 115 2/3 innings pitched, 27 in 167 2/3 innings last year when he had the lone season of his six in the majors with an earned run average below 4.41 (3.86). Working at Minute Maid Park against lineups largely made up of right-handed hitters one worries about pop flies winding up in the Crawford Boxes and hammered balls soaring over them. His strikeout-to-walk ratio this season is better than four-to-one, so there is quality stuff in the left arm. We’ll all be watching to see how much of it the Astros extract. Kikuchi missed no starts last year or this. Given the litany of pitcher injuries the Astros have endured, his durability alone is helpful. So long as he’s not awful. The Astros have separate stretches upcoming in which they play 18 days in a row and 16 days in a row.
As for the price paid, the odds clearly favor Loperfido not becoming a star. He grew popular quickly, but the sturm and drang over Loperfido and his paella pot being shipped out could make one think the Astros just traded young Lance Berkman. They did not. For openers, Loperfido is already 25 years old. That Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 big league at bats means next to nothing. It certainly means no more (and probably means less) than his hitting .143 over his next 63 at bats, though that is no career death sentence. The issue is Loperfido is a whiff machine. 43 strikeouts in 106 at bats is brutal (plus two in his five at bats Blue Jays debut Wednesday). He also struck out by the truckload in the minor leagues. Loperfido’s power is good not special. Eight of his 13 early season homers for Sugar Land came at Albuquerque and Reno. Albuquerque’s elevation is higher than Denver’s, Reno’s is 4500 feet. Few talent evaluators think Loperfido is a better outfield prospect than Jacob Melton or Luis Baez who both remain in the Astros’ organization.
Will (son of Billy) Wagner making it here would have been a neat story, but he’s a marginal prospect. He’s shown little power, is not a quality defender, and is already 26 years old. Wagner probably projects as a part-timer on a good team. That has value but certainly doesn’t make him remotely untouchable. When (if?) Alex Bregman is gone as a free agent, third base opportunity knocks and Wagner could have been a candidate. He’s not a better candidate than Zach Dezenzo.
Including Jake Bloss is the biggest downside risk in the deal, but it’s not like he’s one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the game. Bloss got to the big leagues quickly because he pitched well, but more so because the Astros were in dire straits. No one thinks he’s Paul Skenes-lite. Still, if Jake Bloss-oms into a good mid-rotation starter that could cause much Astros’ remorse. Unless Kikuchi helps them to an eighth consecutive playoff appearance, and just maybe an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance. At this point it’s a greater likelihood that the Astros miss the playoffs then go to yet another ALCS. But on the back end of this glorious era, this pushing in of some chips seeking to boost a shot at another run is certainly justifiable. They did not push in blue chips.
Lonely at the top
There is no team currently on pace to win 100 games this season. The last time no club cracked the century mark, the Angels had Major League Baseball’s best record at 98-64. Yeah, it’s been a while. It was 2014, the only postseason taste of Mike Trout’s career. The Royals then swept the Angels three straight in an American League Division Series.
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Jamal Murray had 39 points, Michael Porter Jr. added 17 points and nine rebounds and the Denver Nuggets beat Houston 116-111 on Sunday night to snap the Rockets' nine-game win streak.
Murray, who scored 17 in the first half, had 17 in the third quarter as Denver outscored the Rockets 39-22 in the quarter to take a 96-79 lead.
Russell Westbrook had 14 points off the bench, Aaron Gordon scored 13 points with eight assists and DeAndre Jordan had 11 points and 15 rebounds for the Nuggets, which shot 51% and were 10 of 21 on 3-pointers.
Jalen Green scored 30 points, and Dillon Brooks added 21 points for Houston. Alperen Sengun had 17 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and Steven Adams finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Rockets, which shot 44% and were 11 of 34 from behind the arc.
Trailing 109-100 with 1 ½ minutes left, Houston used a 7-1 run to cut the lead to three on a Sengun layup with 21 seconds left, but Christian Braun made two free throws with 19 seconds remaining to push the lead back to five.
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic missed his fourth straight game with left ankle impingement, and Denver improved to 2-2 with him out of the lineup.
Rockets: Houston remains in second place in the Western Conference with 10 games left, but the Nuggets closed to within a game of Houston.
Sengun made one of two free throws with 14 seconds remaining, and Murray made two free throws two seconds later to push the lead to 114-108.
Houston finished 22 of 34 from the free throw line, while Denver made 18 of 26.
Denver hosts the Chicago Bulls on Monday night, while Houston hosts the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.