THE PALLILOG
Here's how the Astros can bury the Rangers' playoff hopes in short order
Aug 1, 2024, 12:29 pm
Finish them! Composite Getty Image.
The American League West race is not down to just Houston and Seattle, but it could be by this time next week. The Astros and Mariners start the weekend in a virtual tie at the top with the Rangers four and a half games back. While the Astros get the stripped down but still pesky Tampa Bay Rays this weekend at Minute Maid Park, the Mariners are home for the elite (but slumping) Phillies, the Rangers are home vs. the Red Sox.
The Rangers are already near dead in the Wild Card race, eight games out of the third spot with three other teams in front of them. If the Rangers lose ground to the Astros this weekend the Astros could then put the reigning World Series Champions to sleep by taking their series in Arlington next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Conversely, if the Rangers hold or gain ground this weekend and then take two of three over the Astros as they did in Houston going into the All-Star break, the three-team derby is on. With the Astros and Rangers having split their 10 meetings so far in 2024, the season series and tiebreaker that goes with it rides on the outcome. But first things first…
Yusei Kikuchi makes his debut on Friday
It's not like when Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, or Zack Greinke joined the Astros for a stretch drive, but Yusei Kikuchi makes his anticipated Astros’ debut Friday night in the series opener against the Rays. It’s evidently an anticipated disaster by many, judging by some of the outraged reaction excoriating General Manager Dana Brown for the trade that sent Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, and Jake Bloss to Toronto. The Astros overpaid, especially in comparison to what the Dodgers gave up to acquire the better Jack Flaherty from the Tigers, but given market conditions the Astros did not egregiously overpay.
Kikuchi needs to deliver and there are reasons to be concerned, but off his (underwhelming) performance to date this season he is better than Spencer Arrighetti and better than Bloss. That makes for an incremental improvement to the Astros’ starting rotation. In the very tight AL West battle with Seattle every little bit matters more. Kikuchi has always had trouble giving up home runs, 17 of them allowed this season in 115 2/3 innings pitched, 27 in 167 2/3 innings last year when he had the lone season of his six in the majors with an earned run average below 4.41 (3.86). Working at Minute Maid Park against lineups largely made up of right-handed hitters one worries about pop flies winding up in the Crawford Boxes and hammered balls soaring over them. His strikeout-to-walk ratio this season is better than four-to-one, so there is quality stuff in the left arm. We’ll all be watching to see how much of it the Astros extract. Kikuchi missed no starts last year or this. Given the litany of pitcher injuries the Astros have endured, his durability alone is helpful. So long as he’s not awful. The Astros have separate stretches upcoming in which they play 18 days in a row and 16 days in a row.
As for the price paid, the odds clearly favor Loperfido not becoming a star. He grew popular quickly, but the sturm and drang over Loperfido and his paella pot being shipped out could make one think the Astros just traded young Lance Berkman. They did not. For openers, Loperfido is already 25 years old. That Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 big league at bats means next to nothing. It certainly means no more (and probably means less) than his hitting .143 over his next 63 at bats, though that is no career death sentence. The issue is Loperfido is a whiff machine. 43 strikeouts in 106 at bats is brutal (plus two in his five at bats Blue Jays debut Wednesday). He also struck out by the truckload in the minor leagues. Loperfido’s power is good not special. Eight of his 13 early season homers for Sugar Land came at Albuquerque and Reno. Albuquerque’s elevation is higher than Denver’s, Reno’s is 4500 feet. Few talent evaluators think Loperfido is a better outfield prospect than Jacob Melton or Luis Baez who both remain in the Astros’ organization.
Will (son of Billy) Wagner making it here would have been a neat story, but he’s a marginal prospect. He’s shown little power, is not a quality defender, and is already 26 years old. Wagner probably projects as a part-timer on a good team. That has value but certainly doesn’t make him remotely untouchable. When (if?) Alex Bregman is gone as a free agent, third base opportunity knocks and Wagner could have been a candidate. He’s not a better candidate than Zach Dezenzo.
Including Jake Bloss is the biggest downside risk in the deal, but it’s not like he’s one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the game. Bloss got to the big leagues quickly because he pitched well, but more so because the Astros were in dire straits. No one thinks he’s Paul Skenes-lite. Still, if Jake Bloss-oms into a good mid-rotation starter that could cause much Astros’ remorse. Unless Kikuchi helps them to an eighth consecutive playoff appearance, and just maybe an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance. At this point it’s a greater likelihood that the Astros miss the playoffs then go to yet another ALCS. But on the back end of this glorious era, this pushing in of some chips seeking to boost a shot at another run is certainly justifiable. They did not push in blue chips.
Lonely at the top
There is no team currently on pace to win 100 games this season. The last time no club cracked the century mark, the Angels had Major League Baseball’s best record at 98-64. Yeah, it’s been a while. It was 2014, the only postseason taste of Mike Trout’s career. The Royals then swept the Angels three straight in an American League Division Series.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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