THE PALLILOG
Battle plans: How Astros can successfully plot an optimal postseason path
Sep 14, 2023, 6:05 pm
The Astros are back in action on Friday. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
Houston Astros title defense could come down to 3 critical factors
The Astros couldn’t have slammed the door on their fellow American League West contenders this week, but they didn’t have to open the door a bit wider for the Rangers and Mariners. The odds didn’t favor the Astros losing two out of three at home to the woeful Oakland A’s, but que sera sera. That extends the drama about who wins the division. Should the Astros wind up not winning it, their confounding mediocrity at Minute Maid Park this season will be a remembered culprit. A 38-37 home mark simply is not title-worthy. However, their 45-27 road mark certainly is, and they need to tack on several more wins to it, starting with this weekend’s three game set at pathetic Kansas City. At 46-101 the Royals sit a half game worse than the A’s in the “chase” for the worst record in Major League Baseball.
In feebly losing the first two games to Oakland the Astros didn’t choke against the A’s. They merely stunk and were outplayed. It happens. The offense was snuffed in the first loss, Justin Verlander got lit up in the second. That’s not choking, it’s failing. Even had the Astros not salvaged the last game and instead been swept, it wouldn’t have meant they choked. Did the Rangers choke last week in Arlington? Or was it the Astros playing tremendously and kicking the crap out of them three in a row? The concepts aren’t mutually exclusive, but it was much, much more about the Astros putting on a dominant display. The A’s just plain beat the Astros Monday and Tuesday.
As pitiful as the A’s are, they still win more than 30 percent of their games. The Astros are obviously not a great team, they lose more than 40 percent of their games. The won-loss percentage gap between the good and the dregs is much smaller in MLB than it is in the NFL and NBA. It’s just how the sports are. Unless Patrick Mahomes was injured or suddenly retired beforehand, the Texans beating the Chiefs two out of three is inconceivable. The A’s taking two of three from the Astros was surprising and for Astros’ fans exasperating and perhaps a bit unnerving, but it should not have been shocking to anyone. Hence, it would be shame on the Astros if they go into K.C. with any sort of “We’re great on the road, the Royals are lousy, we got this.” mentality.
Credit to the Rangers for responding from the beatdown the Astros put on them. After that the Rangers lost a series opener to the A’s last Friday and were really teetering. They haven’t lost since, taking two from Oakland and then rolling to a four game sweep of a huge series at Toronto. The Mariners meanwhile rebounded from dropping two of three at the crummy Mets and the first of a series with the also-ran Angels to win their last two. So here we are. The Astros enter the weekend one half game ahead of the Rangers (tied in the loss column with the Astros owning the tiebreaker) and a game and a half ahead of the Mariners (one better in the loss column but the Mariners own the tiebreaker). The Rangers are at Cleveland this weekend. Business is business, so if you’re an Astros fan choke down that bile for a “Go Dodgers!” weekend with the Dodgers in Seattle for three. To start next week the Astros are back home (uh oh!) for three vs. the outstanding Orioles, the Rangers are home for the playing out the string Red Sox, the Mariners get three at Oakland.
After that it is fabulously beneficial to the Astros that the Rangers and Mariners have seven head-to-head meetings over the season’s final 10 games. That guarantees that either the Rangers or Mariners lose at least four of them, which makes it highly likely that the Astros at least snag a Wild Card unless the Astros reeeally falter. While the natural focus is on winning the West again, should the Astros falter and finish behind both the Rangers and Mariners, they are not out of the woods from missing the playoffs completely. They are three games ahead of Toronto, though the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over the Astros. The Jays’ final 15 games are all within the AL East: six vs. the Rays, six vs. the Yankees, three vs. the Red Sox).
The Astros have virtually no shot at finishing with the best record in the AL. That will belong to the AL East winner, Baltimore or Tampa Bay. The Rays took the opener of a four game series in Maryland Thursday night to get within one game of the Orioles. Just one win gives the Orioles the season series tiebreaker.
Until things are settled, every game is critical, but none more so than the Astros’ three at Seattle September 25-27. Dusty Baker and staff have tweaking to do with the starting rotation if Verlander and Framber Valdez are to make starts in that series. Valdez goes this Sunday in Kansas City. He needs to jump ahead of J.P. France’s turn Friday at MMP vs. the Royals so Framber can have four days rest ahead of starting the series finale against the Mariners the following Wednesday. That would also have Valdez available on three days rest for the regular season finale at Arizona, should game 162 be critical. Verlander’s next scheduled turn is Monday vs. Baltimore. His next start after that should be the following Monday in the opener in Seattle. So the decision needs to be made whether Verlander is better off pitching Monday and not again until the following Monday, or pushing his start vs. the Orioles to Tuesday.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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