PHOTO FINISH
All the undeniable reasons Astros playoff push hits different this year
Aug 31, 2023, 12:33 pm
The race for the AL West crown will go down to the wire. Composite Getty Image.
It was Branch Rickey who said that “Baseball is a game of inches.” A seeing-eye single that eludes both the third baseman and shortstop. A home run that nicks the foul pole. An errant throw that just barely pulls the first baseman off the bag.
But as Astros fans realized Thursday morning, baseball also is a game of percentage points. The ESPN scroll said, “Mariners and Astros remain tied for first place in the American League West.”
Well, yes and no. Because teams don’t play the same number of games by certain dates on the calendar, technically (more mathematically) the Seattle Mariners are in first place by themselves and the Astros are trailing in second place.
By one measly, stinkin’ percentage point. That's a difference usually reserved for bobsled racing and mortgage rate hikes.
If you could somehow put the Hubble Telescope inside the Mount Palomar Telescope, the Astros and Mariners would still look tied for first place in the whisper-close American League West – the tightest division in MLB with its three top teams separated by only one game. Don’t forget about the Texas Rangers sitting alone in third place, one game out.
The Mariners are 76-57, good for a .571 percentage. The Astros are 77-58, good for a .570 percentage. You’d have to squint to see the space between them. The Astros and Mariners both will finish with 162 games in the books, but if somehow the season were to end today, the Mariners would get the first-round bye in the playoffs, while the Astros would have to play a best-of-three wild card series that eats up pitching.
There is a silver lining to the Astros finding themselves in an uncustomary close race for the division lead. September starts Friday and the Astros schedule is packed with meaningful, potentially nerve-racking games that should keep fans’ eyes glued to the out-of-town scoreboard. That’s something relatively new around here.
Since 2017 when the Astros won their first World Series and their dynasty began, the Astros have made a mockery of September. In the past five full MLB seasons, the Astros won the American League West by a runaway 16 games in 2022, by five games in 2021, by 10 games in 2019, six games in 2018, and a crazy 21 games in 2017.
Consider this, after a shaky 3-6 start to the season, the Houston Astros haven't spent one day in sole possession of first place this year.
There’s nothing like a tight pennant race to keep the home ballpark filled right to the end of the season. Remember how devastating it was when the Mariners showed up Aug. 18-20 and swept the Astros at Minute Maid Park? Or when the Astros went up to Boston this week and dispatched the Red Sox three straight?
Well, strap yourselves in for September when the Astros host the dreaded Yankees this weekend at Minute Maid, then travel to Arlington for three games against the Rangers next week, and visit Seattle for a three-game showdown on Sept. 25-27. The Astros finish at home on Sept. 29 to Oct. 1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Every game from here on out could mean the difference between winning the American League West pennant and finishing second or even third.
It’s going to be fun and, sure, at some moments excruciating. Rudyard Kipling once wrote, “if you can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two imposters just the same.”
Not here. We’re on the triumph train at Minute Maid Park.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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