THE PALLILOG
How ALDS opponent leaves Astros, Dusty Baker with intriguing tactical options
Oct 5, 2023, 6:51 pm
The ALDS gets started this Saturday! Composite Getty Image.
tucker and dusty
After a frenetic final week finish to secure a playoff spot and then swipe the American League West championship, it’s time for Astros’ postseason games. They have felt like a birthright here in recent years. They are not and should be cherished. Buckle up as the Astros take aim at reaching a seventh consecutive AL Championship Series, with the ultimate goal of winning a third World Series title in those seven years.
Only the Astros can become the first back-to-back Series champ since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. The Astros are rightful favorites in their AL Division Series matchup with the Minnesota Twins but the Twins are capable of wrecking Astros' ambitions. That’s no bold proclamation. There is no such thing as a massive upset in a best-of-five baseball series. The Astros won 90 games this season. The Twins won 87, including four of six games vs. the Astros. They come to town having unburdened themselves of the longest postseason losing streak (18 games dating back to 2004) in North American history, but more important, the Twins have a solid ballclub.
The Astros have the better offense but it’s no landslide. The Twins tied the Texas Rangers for the most home runs in the AL with 233 (the Astros were fifth with 222). The Astros gave up more home runs than any other playoff team this year, albeit just one more than the Dodgers who play in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. However, if he is even on the roster the Astros’ most gopher-ball prone pitcher (Hunter Brown) won’t pitch in the series unless a game is a total blowout. Presumptive game three starter Cristian Javier was the next most homer-susceptible. The Twins lineup can be handled though. As a team, they hit just .243 (10th among the 15 AL teams) and set the all-time single season record for most strikeouts in a season, though perpetual whiff machine Joey Gallo was left off the Twins' Wild Card roster and presumably will be omitted from their LDS roster.
Minnesota has a quality pitching staff, both starters and relievers. They struck out the most batters in MLB this year. The big on paper mound edge the Astros get is in game one. The Astros have a well-rested Justin Verlander ready to go coming off two excellent outings. Verlander seems an easy choice given Framber Valdez was poor in his last two starts. The Twins having used their top two starters against Toronto, go with their number three option whether Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober. The Twins then have their top two guys—Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray--lined up for games two and three.
The Saturday/Sunday MMP, Tuesday/Wednesday Target Field, Friday MMP format means unless a three game sweep happens, four different starting pitchers are needed unless coming back with the game one starter on just three days rest in game four. 40-year-old Verlander on short rest is ill-advised, so should the Astros be down two games to one and facing elimination, that would mean hoping Jose Urquidy can deliver a performance in range of what he did at Arizona when subbing for J.P. France. In a do-or-die road game, one would guess Urquidy gets the nod over France.
All the Twins starting pitchers are righties, so Dusty Baker’s lineup decisions will be interesting. Can Michael Brantley play consecutive games? If so, should he? In Verlander’s start(s) presuming Baker sticks with Mauricio Dubon in center field, is it Brantley or Chas McCormick in left (presuming Yordan Alvarez is the designated hitter)? Is Yainer Diaz confined to mothballs and pinch-hitting?
There is no reason to carry 13 pitchers in a best-of-five series that has two off days (should it go the distance). The five nominal starters plus a seven man bullpen (Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Graveman, Maton, Stanek, Montero) is plenty. Notably, left-handed reliever Bennett Sousa is ineligible. Dusty Baker might prefer to have the southpaw pen option given Sousa gave up no runs and just one hit over five outings and six and a third innings. Alas, the Astros didn’t claim Sousa off the waiver wire until after September 1, so he is ineligible. If the Astros are going to carry Jon Singleton for a desperate hope for a pinch homer role, omitting Brown would open a spot for Grae Kessinger who offers a pinch-running option and emergency defensive flexibility.
Happily, Carlos Correa is evidently ok after taking a 99 miles per hour fastball off his right hand in his final at bat Wednesday. Last offseason after flunking physicals with the Giants and Mets that had them opt out of contract agreements worth over 300 million dollars, Correa had to “settle” for 200 mil in re-signing with the Twins for six years. He proceeded to have the worst season of his career, batting just .230 with a weak .711 OPS. Always priding himself as a clutch hitter, Correa was even worse with runners in scoring position batting just .207. With two outs and runners in scoring position, a pathetic .119. The only statistical leaderboard where Correa showed up was grounding into double plays. He led the Major Leagues with 30 GIDP. Correa simply was not a good player this season, and then missed the final two weeks with plantar fasciitis.
But in the Twins’ two game Wild Card Series sweep of Toronto, Correa made a significant impact in each game. In game one it was one of the most spectacular defensive plays one can see to end a Blue Jays’ threat. In game two it was an RBI single to give the Twins a lead they never gave up. You know Correa is stoked to challenge the Astros. One, he has several good friends/former teammates still on the roster. Two, you know it rankles Correa that the Astros never made what he considered a serious offer to keep him.
That the Astros were an absolute stink bomb at Minute Maid Park down the stretch if the regular season has no bearing now. You always want homefield advantage if you can have it, at bare minimum to have last at bat in the ninth and any extra innings. If wanting to shake up home karma, OPEN THE ROOF! The weather will be spectacular meant for open-air baseball both Saturday and Sunday.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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