THE PALLILOG
How ALDS opponent leaves Astros, Dusty Baker with intriguing tactical options
Oct 5, 2023, 6:51 pm
The ALDS gets started this Saturday! Composite Getty Image.
tucker and dusty
After a frenetic final week finish to secure a playoff spot and then swipe the American League West championship, it’s time for Astros’ postseason games. They have felt like a birthright here in recent years. They are not and should be cherished. Buckle up as the Astros take aim at reaching a seventh consecutive AL Championship Series, with the ultimate goal of winning a third World Series title in those seven years.
Only the Astros can become the first back-to-back Series champ since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. The Astros are rightful favorites in their AL Division Series matchup with the Minnesota Twins but the Twins are capable of wrecking Astros' ambitions. That’s no bold proclamation. There is no such thing as a massive upset in a best-of-five baseball series. The Astros won 90 games this season. The Twins won 87, including four of six games vs. the Astros. They come to town having unburdened themselves of the longest postseason losing streak (18 games dating back to 2004) in North American history, but more important, the Twins have a solid ballclub.
The Astros have the better offense but it’s no landslide. The Twins tied the Texas Rangers for the most home runs in the AL with 233 (the Astros were fifth with 222). The Astros gave up more home runs than any other playoff team this year, albeit just one more than the Dodgers who play in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. However, if he is even on the roster the Astros’ most gopher-ball prone pitcher (Hunter Brown) won’t pitch in the series unless a game is a total blowout. Presumptive game three starter Cristian Javier was the next most homer-susceptible. The Twins lineup can be handled though. As a team, they hit just .243 (10th among the 15 AL teams) and set the all-time single season record for most strikeouts in a season, though perpetual whiff machine Joey Gallo was left off the Twins' Wild Card roster and presumably will be omitted from their LDS roster.
Minnesota has a quality pitching staff, both starters and relievers. They struck out the most batters in MLB this year. The big on paper mound edge the Astros get is in game one. The Astros have a well-rested Justin Verlander ready to go coming off two excellent outings. Verlander seems an easy choice given Framber Valdez was poor in his last two starts. The Twins having used their top two starters against Toronto, go with their number three option whether Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober. The Twins then have their top two guys—Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray--lined up for games two and three.
The Saturday/Sunday MMP, Tuesday/Wednesday Target Field, Friday MMP format means unless a three game sweep happens, four different starting pitchers are needed unless coming back with the game one starter on just three days rest in game four. 40-year-old Verlander on short rest is ill-advised, so should the Astros be down two games to one and facing elimination, that would mean hoping Jose Urquidy can deliver a performance in range of what he did at Arizona when subbing for J.P. France. In a do-or-die road game, one would guess Urquidy gets the nod over France.
All the Twins starting pitchers are righties, so Dusty Baker’s lineup decisions will be interesting. Can Michael Brantley play consecutive games? If so, should he? In Verlander’s start(s) presuming Baker sticks with Mauricio Dubon in center field, is it Brantley or Chas McCormick in left (presuming Yordan Alvarez is the designated hitter)? Is Yainer Diaz confined to mothballs and pinch-hitting?
There is no reason to carry 13 pitchers in a best-of-five series that has two off days (should it go the distance). The five nominal starters plus a seven man bullpen (Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Graveman, Maton, Stanek, Montero) is plenty. Notably, left-handed reliever Bennett Sousa is ineligible. Dusty Baker might prefer to have the southpaw pen option given Sousa gave up no runs and just one hit over five outings and six and a third innings. Alas, the Astros didn’t claim Sousa off the waiver wire until after September 1, so he is ineligible. If the Astros are going to carry Jon Singleton for a desperate hope for a pinch homer role, omitting Brown would open a spot for Grae Kessinger who offers a pinch-running option and emergency defensive flexibility.
Happily, Carlos Correa is evidently ok after taking a 99 miles per hour fastball off his right hand in his final at bat Wednesday. Last offseason after flunking physicals with the Giants and Mets that had them opt out of contract agreements worth over 300 million dollars, Correa had to “settle” for 200 mil in re-signing with the Twins for six years. He proceeded to have the worst season of his career, batting just .230 with a weak .711 OPS. Always priding himself as a clutch hitter, Correa was even worse with runners in scoring position batting just .207. With two outs and runners in scoring position, a pathetic .119. The only statistical leaderboard where Correa showed up was grounding into double plays. He led the Major Leagues with 30 GIDP. Correa simply was not a good player this season, and then missed the final two weeks with plantar fasciitis.
But in the Twins’ two game Wild Card Series sweep of Toronto, Correa made a significant impact in each game. In game one it was one of the most spectacular defensive plays one can see to end a Blue Jays’ threat. In game two it was an RBI single to give the Twins a lead they never gave up. You know Correa is stoked to challenge the Astros. One, he has several good friends/former teammates still on the roster. Two, you know it rankles Correa that the Astros never made what he considered a serious offer to keep him.
That the Astros were an absolute stink bomb at Minute Maid Park down the stretch if the regular season has no bearing now. You always want homefield advantage if you can have it, at bare minimum to have last at bat in the ninth and any extra innings. If wanting to shake up home karma, OPEN THE ROOF! The weather will be spectacular meant for open-air baseball both Saturday and Sunday.
Can't get enough Astros postseason coverage?
Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 4PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets such as:
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.