How a closer look at Alex Bregman's free agency could work in Houston Astros' favor
HOT STOVe
04 November 2024
HOT STOVe
With MLB free agency upon us, the Astros have some big decisions to make as they try to put the best possible roster together for the 2025 season.
We all know Alex Bregman's future is the big topic of conversation for Astros fans this offseason, but some other notable players are also free agents. That list includes Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Kendall Graveman, Jason Heyward, Hector Neris, Ben Gammel, and Caleb Ferguson. (Houston also released Jose Urquidy on Monday, and he has already cleared waivers).
Full list of Astros moves:
Acquired Taylor Trammell for cash
Outrighted Oliver Ortega and José Urquidy, both of whom cleared waivers and are free agents
Lost Trey Cabbage (Pirates), Seth Martinez (DBacks), Penn Murfee (White Sox) on waivers.
The 40-man roster is full
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 4, 2024
And while it's hard to have confidence that the Astros will be willing to pay what Bregman will command on the open market (around 6-years, $150 million to 7-years, $185 million), one thing could be working in Houston's favor.
Demand for a top dollar third baseman may not be as high as Bregman and his agent Scott Boris were hoping for. SportsMap's Charlie Pallilo goes through all the team's with a need for a player like Bregman and only sees a few matches that make sense.
Especially if the Yankees spend big on Juan Soto. With them out of the picture, it could be tough for Breggy to find the type of contract he's looking for as a third baseman.
There are some teams that could definitely use his services, like the Seattle Mariners or Toronto Blue Jays for example. But the Mariners have been reluctant to commit that type of money to offense, and if winning is important, would Breggy go to Toronto?
Now, if Bregman is willing to move to second base, that could open up some more possibilities. We'll dive into that more in the video below.
Silver Slugger finalists
Could the Silver Slugger finalists influence owner Jim Crane's approach in free agency? Here's why we bring this up. The World Champion LA Dodgers have 5 finalists this year. The Astros have 4 (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bregman, Yainer Diaz), and likely would have had 5 if not for the injury to Kyle Tucker.
Even if the Astros were to move on from Bregman, that would still leave them with 4 possible finalists once again in 2025. Considering how much money the Dodgers spend each year, the fact that the Astros roster is still comparable to the Dodgers might add to Crane's belief that this team doesn't need another splashy move to win a World Series.
They may just need to get a little better on the margins to get this team back in serious contention for a title.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we examine all the possible landing spots for Bregman, how that impacts Houston's chances at bringing him back, and what overall strategy we should expect from Dana Brown and the Astros this offseason.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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