How the Houston Astros are finally feeling the sting from MLB's hypocrisy
IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING!
30 November 2023
IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING!
So far this offseason for the Astros, there's been way more news about players possibly leaving the organization rather than free agents joining the club.
We've all heard the Alex Bregman rumors, and GM Dana Brown making it seem like spending big money this offseason isn't likely to happen.
But it's not like the Astros are unwilling to spend money, the problem is, they've already spent it. The Astros currently have a whopping 10 players being paid over $11 million for next season.
And a big reason for that is the lack of talent/depth in the farm system. We all know it takes a few years for prospects to develop in the minors before being ready to make an impact in the big leagues.
So as we sit here awaiting the 2024 season without a decent option to replace Bregman in 2025, we can't help but wonder if that would be the case had the Astros not been docked 2 first round and 2 second round picks in the 2020 and 2021 draft for the sign-stealing scandal.
While many national fans complained that the Astros were not punished enough, Houston is certainly feeling the ramifications now. And the Bregman trade rumors are evidence of that. The Astros have let multiple star players walk year after year, but all of a sudden we're hearing rumors about Bregman being traded before a season in which the Astros appear all-in to compete for another championship.
The Astros have been forced to spend money to compete at the highest level because the farm system isn't spilling over with big league talent. Many fans will point to the bad contracts that are on the books. The deals for Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Lance McCullers come to mind.
But think about this. What if one or two of those picks from 2020 or 2021 had turned into a quality big league player by this point. Maybe the club wouldn't have felt the need to overpay Rafael Montero or Jose Abreu. It's not crazy to think one of these draft picks could have developed into a decent bullpen arm or first baseman with some pop in his bat.
While the money saved from these deals probably wouldn't keep Breggy in an Astros uniform past 2024 based on his alleged contract expectations, we doubt the club would have considered trading him before the final year of his contract. Just like George Springer, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa.
Plus, it's interesting to see all these MLB fans clamor for Bregman to join their favorite team after booing him incessantly for the last several years. When players leave the Astros, fans seem to treat them completely different. Just look at George Springer and Carlos Correa.
On the other hand, some fans say they would never want an Astro to join their team in free agency, they could never root for them. Which is ridiculous if you think about it. SportsMapHouston's Ken Hoffman pointed out recently how Yankees and Red Sox fans quickly started rooting for players from their rival after they put on a different uniform. Some good examples would be Roger Clemens, Johnny Damon, Jacoby Elsbury, and Wade Boggs.
Fans may take shots a Bregman now, but they'll change their tune if he's hitting home runs for their favorite team.
Be sure to watch the video above for the full conversation.
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While we wait to see whether the Texans get to avoid facing Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City Saturday, Houston and another "Show Me" state team popped into the news this week. There is irony in St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado exercising his no-trade clause to prevent him from being traded to the Astros. Obviously, Arenado sees the Astros as no longer the behemoth they were for several seasons. Well, neither is Arenado. The Astros were last an elite ballclub in 2022 (and have the World Series trophy to prove it). Arenado was last an elite player in 2022 when he finished third in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting. The Astros were still good the last two years though no longer special. Arenado was a little above mediocre in 2023 and plain mediocre in 2024. If he’s trying to squeeze additional money beyond the 74 million dollars left on the three years remaining on his contract in order to approve the trade, he’s in fantasyland. Arenado is highly overpaid at his level of performance the last two seasons. More reasonably, he’s probably hoping he can funnel himself to the Yankees, Mets, or Phillies, all of whom may be in the third baseman market, and all of whom are stronger looking organizations than the Astros project to be over the next three seasons. You probably can add the Red Sox to that list.
The purported terms of the deal the Astros had put the cart before the horse with the Cardinals had the Redbirds paying off some of Arenado’s deal to get rid of the rest of the money from their books, leaving the Astros on the hook for three years and 45 million dollars or so. Three years at 15 mil per for a guy in serious decline over the last two years and who turns 34 years old in April? No thanks. That would be bolting shut the door shut on Alex Bregman. Maybe that should read further bolting shut the door.
Consider the following, with which I made my Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast compadres recoil in horror this week:
In 2024 Nolan Arenado had 578 at bats and produced 39 extra base hits.
In 2023 Jose Abreu had 540 at bats and produced 42 extra base hits.
It’s not advanced calculus. The abysmal Abreu had fewer ABs than Arenado yet delivered more extra base hits. Check please! Granted, while Abreu was also generally feeble defensively at first base, Arenado is still a solid glove man at the hot corner, though not the guy who won Gold Gloves the first ten seasons of his career. But you get the point. The 2024 Astro most comparable offensively to Arenado for time played...Jon Singleton.
In the Kyle Tucker trade the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes who is best suited defensively to play third. The highest hope of return in the deal is Cam Smith, a third baseman by trade, though he may wind up at first base or in the outfield. There is also Brice Matthews to consider. Maybe Matthews winds up succeeding Jeremy Pena at shortstop. Or maybe he better projects as a third baseman.
Taking on three years of Arenado and blocking prospects would be silly. Moving him to first base would diminish his defensive value. At his 15 million dollar salary Arenado will make within a couple million of what Tucker projects to make in 2025 via salary arbitration. This with Arenado not half the player Tucker is presently. Although his offensive numbers are inflated from his eight seasons playing in the hitting haven that is Denver (career OPS at Coors Field is .982, everywhere else .795), Arenado is a very legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. He’s been a better player over his career than Bregman has been over his. But in neither 2023 nor 2024 was Arenado as good as Bregman. There’s little reason to think Arenado will be the better player in 2025. Obviously the pay grade would be significantly different but it would be an interesting (nicer word for it) look for the Astros to take on a declined player for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, while they got all squirrely over paying Kyle Tucker beyond his age 33 season (Tucker has six seasons to play before he turns 34). Arenado is one of numerous reasons why the Astros reasonably see it as stretching to the limit in offering Bregman six years through his age 36 season.
The Astros are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive (which doesn’t require excellence in the American League West) while ideally getting the payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. It’s not as if Jim Crane is being a payroll cheapskate. The Astros presently project to be in the top eight in CBT payroll. The 2025 Astros will suffer because of the financial dead weights that are Abreu, Rafael Montero, and to large if not full extents Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier. At least neither the Mariners nor Rangers have done anything to their roster that moves the needle. They still could, but haven’t yet.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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