THE PALLILOG
Let’s put all the Astros remaining playoff scenarios under the microscope
Sep 22, 2023, 12:32 pm
The Astros host the Royals at Minute Maid this weekend. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Here's everything you need to know about Astros Opening Day 2023
- What a two-front battle to the finish for the Astros. And Rangers. And Mariners. Compelling stuff as the American League West and Wild Card races steam toward conclusion. We’re down to this weekend and then the final week of the regular season with it a certainty that two of the three make the playoffs. The third could make half the American League playoff field from the AL West, or miss the postseason and rue a blown opportunity.
Since finally grabbing first place for themselves with their three game baseball dismemberment of the Rangers earlier this month, the Astros have not played like a playoff team. Some would say the way they’ve played of late the Astros don’t deserve to make the playoffs. That is nonsense. All teams know the rules of engagement. 162 games count in the standings. If at the close of play a week from Sunday the Astros finish ahead of the Rangers, Mariners, or Blue Jays, they will deserve to make the playoffs. Even better, they would make the playoffs.
During their recent swoon the Astros have not been choking. Too often they’ve been stinking. Big difference, considering that calling an athlete a “choker” is about the harshest criticism one can spew. Did Alex Bregman choke with his costly throwing error on a double play ball last weekend in Kansas City? Did Ryan Pressly choke when he blew the save and game Monday night against Baltimore? Did Yordan Alvarez choke when he had four feeble at bats against the Orioles Tuesday? Is Kyle Tucker choking because he is batting .210 in September? Is Jose Altuve choking when he makes one of his too frequent confounding baserunning mistakes? No, no, no, no, and no. Failure is not automatically choking. Sometimes you just don’t play well. Also relevant, this isn’t golf where it’s the player against the course. In a team sport the opposition can just outplay you. Choking happens but it is too readily blamed for losing.
Bad teams can win short series from good teams, and the Astros reminded everyone of that by dropping consecutive series to the sad sack Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals. If this weekend they lose another series to the lowly Royals at Minute Maid Park, boooooo! I grant that would at least seem like choking. It would also mean the Astros finish the season with a losing record at Minute Maid Park. The Astros would also then be inviting the Mariners to put them to sleep in the AL West race in the massive three game series that opens Monday in Seattle. On the flip side, the Astros can make it easy on themselves by sweeping the Royals then winning at least two out of three over the Mariners.
While the Astros get the Royals this weekend, the Mariners are in Arlington for three against the Rangers. Texas and Seattle close the regular season with four more meetings next weekend in the “Emerald City” while the Astros will be in Arizona against a Diamondbacks’ team that presently holds the number two Wild Card position in the National League. Let’s say the Astros sweep three from K.C. (obviously not close to a given), then lose two of three at both Seattle and Arizona. That would be a 5-4 close resulting in a 90-72 record. Good news: either the Rangers or Mariners must lose at least four of their seven matchups. Bad news: either the Rangers or Mariners must win at least four of those matchups.
If the Rangers sweep the three-game series they have at the Angels and go 3-4 vs. the Mariners, the Rangers finish 90-72. In this scenario the Mariners would also finish 90-72. Three-way tie! The Mariners would win the division based on having the best combined record against the other two. The Astros would then get a Wild Card over the Rangers by winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rangers would then need to finish at least tied with Toronto. The Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays. So do the Mariners. The Astros lose the tiebreaker to the Jays. Unless the Astros sweep the Mariners next week, the Astros can only win the three-way division tiebreaker if the Rangers win exactly four of their seven games against the Mariners.
As suggested in this column last week, the Astros have properly altered their starting rotation ahead of the Mariners series. Justin Verlander goes in the opener Monday with Framber Valdez in the Wednesday finale. Verlander has been pretty average since rejoining the Astros with four good starts, three poor starts and two middling starts, adding up to a 3.93 earned run average. Still, there is zero question that if an Astros’ fan you’d rather see Verlander starting than J.P. France or Hunter Brown. Cristian Javier goes in the Tuesday game.
There are times in life when you will or you won’t, you do or you don’t. If the Astros win enough of their final nine games, they have a shot to defend their World Series championship. If not, quite an interesting offseason gets a surprisingly early start.
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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 4PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets such as:
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Astros take series as Peña homers and Alvarez delivers clutch double
Mar 29, 2025, 10:03 pm
Houston spent time this week practicing an inbound play that coach Kelvin Sampson thought his team might need against Purdue.
Milos Uzan, the third option, ran it to perfection.
He tossed the ball to Joseph Tugler, who threw a bounce pass right back to Uzan, and the 6-foot-4 guard soared to the rim for an uncontested layup with 0.9 seconds left, giving the top-seeded Cougars a 62-60 victory — and a matchup with second-seeded Tennessee in Sunday's Elite Eight.
“Great execution at a time we needed that,” said Sampson, who is a win away from making his third Final Four and his second with Houston in five years. “You never know when you’re going to need it.”
The Cougars (33-4) made only one other basket over the final eight minutes, wasted a 10-point lead and then missed two more shots in the final 5 seconds. A replay review with 2.2 seconds left confirmed Houston would keep the ball when it rolled out of bounds after the second miss.
Uzan took over from there.
“I was trying to hit (L.J. Cryer) and then JoJo just made a great read,” Uzan said. “He was able to draw two (defenders) and he just made a great play to hit me back.”
Houston advanced to the Elite Eight for the third time in five years after falling in the Sweet 16 as a top seed in the previous two editions of March Madness. It will take the nation's longest winning streak, 16 games, into Sunday’s Midwest Region final.
The Cougars joined the other three No. 1 seeds in this year's Elite Eight and did it at Lucas Oil Stadium, where their 2021 tourney run ended with a loss in the Final Four to eventual national champion Baylor.
They haven't lost since Feb. 1.
Uzan scored 22 points and Emanuel Sharp had 17 as Houston survived an off night from leading scorer Cryer, who finished with five points on 2-of-13 shooting.
Houston still had to sweat out a half-court heave at the buzzer, but Braden Smith's shot was well off the mark.
Fletcher Loyer scored 16 points, Trey Kaufman-Renn had 14 and Smith, the Big Ten player of the year, added seven points and 15 assists for fourth-seeded Purdue (24-12). Smith assisted on all 11 second-half baskets for last year’s national runner-up, which played in front of a friendly crowd about an hour’s drive from its campus in West Lafayette.
“I thought we fought really hard and we dug down defensively to get those stops to come back,” Smith said. “We did everything we could and we just had a little miscommunication at the end and they converted. Props to them.”
Houston appeared on the verge of disaster when Kaufman-Renn scored on a dunk and then blocked Cryer’s shot with 1:17 to go, leading to Camden Heide’s 3 that tied the score at 60 with 35 seconds left.
Sampson called timeout to set up the final play, but Uzan missed a turnaround jumper and Tugler’s tip-in rolled off the rim and out of bounds. The Cougars got one more chance after the replay review.
Sharp's scoring flurry early in the second half finally gave Houston some separation after a back-and-forth first half. His 3-pointer at the 16:14 mark made it 40-32. After Purdue trimmed the deficit to four, Uzan made two 3s to give Houston a 10-point lead in a tough, physical game that set up a rare dramatic finish in this year's tourney.
“Smith was guarding the inbounder, so he had to take JoJo,” Sampson said. “That means there was no one there to take Milos. That's why you work on that stuff day after day.”
Takeaways
Purdue: Coach Matt Painter's Boilermakers stumbled into March Madness with six losses in their final nine games but proved themselves a worthy competitor by fighting their way into the Sweet 16 and nearly taking down a No. 1 seed.
Houston: The Cougars lead the nation in 3-point percentage and scoring defense, an enviable combination.
Scary fall
Houston guard Mylik Wilson gave the Cougars a brief scare with 13:23 left in the game. He leapt high into the air to grab a rebound and drew a foul on Kaufman-Renn.
As the play continued, Wilson was undercut and his body twisted around before he landed on his head. Wilson stayed down momentarily, rubbing his head, but eventually got up and remained in the game.