THE PALLILOG
Let’s put all the Astros remaining playoff scenarios under the microscope
Sep 22, 2023, 12:32 pm
The Astros host the Royals at Minute Maid this weekend. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Here's everything you need to know about Astros Opening Day 2023
- What a two-front battle to the finish for the Astros. And Rangers. And Mariners. Compelling stuff as the American League West and Wild Card races steam toward conclusion. We’re down to this weekend and then the final week of the regular season with it a certainty that two of the three make the playoffs. The third could make half the American League playoff field from the AL West, or miss the postseason and rue a blown opportunity.
Since finally grabbing first place for themselves with their three game baseball dismemberment of the Rangers earlier this month, the Astros have not played like a playoff team. Some would say the way they’ve played of late the Astros don’t deserve to make the playoffs. That is nonsense. All teams know the rules of engagement. 162 games count in the standings. If at the close of play a week from Sunday the Astros finish ahead of the Rangers, Mariners, or Blue Jays, they will deserve to make the playoffs. Even better, they would make the playoffs.
During their recent swoon the Astros have not been choking. Too often they’ve been stinking. Big difference, considering that calling an athlete a “choker” is about the harshest criticism one can spew. Did Alex Bregman choke with his costly throwing error on a double play ball last weekend in Kansas City? Did Ryan Pressly choke when he blew the save and game Monday night against Baltimore? Did Yordan Alvarez choke when he had four feeble at bats against the Orioles Tuesday? Is Kyle Tucker choking because he is batting .210 in September? Is Jose Altuve choking when he makes one of his too frequent confounding baserunning mistakes? No, no, no, no, and no. Failure is not automatically choking. Sometimes you just don’t play well. Also relevant, this isn’t golf where it’s the player against the course. In a team sport the opposition can just outplay you. Choking happens but it is too readily blamed for losing.
Bad teams can win short series from good teams, and the Astros reminded everyone of that by dropping consecutive series to the sad sack Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals. If this weekend they lose another series to the lowly Royals at Minute Maid Park, boooooo! I grant that would at least seem like choking. It would also mean the Astros finish the season with a losing record at Minute Maid Park. The Astros would also then be inviting the Mariners to put them to sleep in the AL West race in the massive three game series that opens Monday in Seattle. On the flip side, the Astros can make it easy on themselves by sweeping the Royals then winning at least two out of three over the Mariners.
While the Astros get the Royals this weekend, the Mariners are in Arlington for three against the Rangers. Texas and Seattle close the regular season with four more meetings next weekend in the “Emerald City” while the Astros will be in Arizona against a Diamondbacks’ team that presently holds the number two Wild Card position in the National League. Let’s say the Astros sweep three from K.C. (obviously not close to a given), then lose two of three at both Seattle and Arizona. That would be a 5-4 close resulting in a 90-72 record. Good news: either the Rangers or Mariners must lose at least four of their seven matchups. Bad news: either the Rangers or Mariners must win at least four of those matchups.
If the Rangers sweep the three-game series they have at the Angels and go 3-4 vs. the Mariners, the Rangers finish 90-72. In this scenario the Mariners would also finish 90-72. Three-way tie! The Mariners would win the division based on having the best combined record against the other two. The Astros would then get a Wild Card over the Rangers by winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rangers would then need to finish at least tied with Toronto. The Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays. So do the Mariners. The Astros lose the tiebreaker to the Jays. Unless the Astros sweep the Mariners next week, the Astros can only win the three-way division tiebreaker if the Rangers win exactly four of their seven games against the Mariners.
As suggested in this column last week, the Astros have properly altered their starting rotation ahead of the Mariners series. Justin Verlander goes in the opener Monday with Framber Valdez in the Wednesday finale. Verlander has been pretty average since rejoining the Astros with four good starts, three poor starts and two middling starts, adding up to a 3.93 earned run average. Still, there is zero question that if an Astros’ fan you’d rather see Verlander starting than J.P. France or Hunter Brown. Cristian Javier goes in the Tuesday game.
There are times in life when you will or you won’t, you do or you don’t. If the Astros win enough of their final nine games, they have a shot to defend their World Series championship. If not, quite an interesting offseason gets a surprisingly early start.
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The Astros and the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend. Fun! And important. Both teams have been in results ruts for a while. The Astros have gone 9-16 over their last 25 games while the Yankees’ funk is longer extending, producing a 19-29 mess over their last 48 games. Despite the Seattle Mariners closing in, the Astros still lead the American League West. The Yankees’ hopes of again winning the AL East are fading toward the point of no return. They have tumbled six and a half games behind the Toronto Blue Jays and also lag three games behind the rampaging Boston Red Sox. Hence, the Yankees are under clearly more pressure than are the Astros this weekend. The pitching matchups in the first two games strongly favor the Astros. Friday night it’s Hunter Brown opposite rookie Cam Schlittler who makes his fifth big league appearance. Saturday afternoon it’s Framber Valdez versus Luis Gil, who was the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year, but missed the first four months of this season with a lat injury. Gil made his 2025 debut Sunday, and was terrible. The Astros’ quality rotation depth beyond Brown and Valdez is non-existent at this point. Their Sunday starter will be a lesser starter than the Yankees’ Max Fried. Of course, in one game you never know.
The Astros have thoroughly owned the Yankees in their most meaningful meetings over the last decade. In 2015 the ousted the Yankees in a one-game Wild Card matchup. Then came the real soul-crushers with the Astros vanquishing the Yanks in the 2017, 2019, and 2022 American League Championship Series, with it getting easier for the Astros as time went on. The 2017 series went the maximum seven games, 2019 took six, 2022 was a four-game Astros’ sweep. The regular season has been a different matter. The Yankees have beaten the Astros in 11 of 14 games over the last two years. Last season the Yankees walloped the Astros six wins to one. They only play six times this regular season: the three in New York this weekend then three at Daikin Park in early September.
Here comes the Judge
While the Astros (and their fans) endure a seemingly never-ending wait for Yordan Alvarez’s return to the lineup, the Yankees have Aaron Judge back after a 10-day stint on the injured list. Judge carries the burden of soft career postseason stats (though he has 16 home runs in just 58 postseason games and his career playoffs OPS is just 21 points lower than Alex Bregman’s), but this is a legendary player. Judge’s career OPS stands at a whopping 1.024. That number will drop during the decline years remaining in his career, but here’s the list of all time Major Leaguers higher than 1.024: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Jimmie Foxx. Those are arguably the four greatest offensive players in MLB history, plus Foxx who probably rates in the top 20. If he holds up the rest of the season, Judge is a cinch for his third AL Most Valuable Player Award in four years.
Turn back the clock
Should they choose to check it out, the Astros can watch the Yankees’ Old-Timers' Game Saturday. Though most of the greatest of Yankee legends have died, there will still be a fabulous cast of alumni who soak up cheers during introductions, with many of them then taking part in a two or three inning game. The Yankees are by far the most storied franchise in MLB. The Astros have plenty of history and beloved players over multiple generations to copy the concept, and have their own Old-Timers' Day at Daikin Park. Would it not be a blast to see Roger Clemens pitch to Craig Biggio? Roy Oswalt to Lance Berkman? As I said during our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast this week, I wouldn’t bet against 78 (as of Friday)-year-old Jose Cruz squaring up a ball for a line drive. Make Astros’ Old Timers’ Day happen in 2026 Jim Crane!
Angry birds
The best team in the American League is Toronto, best for now anyway. The Blue Jays have been the best over the last two months-plus. The Jays woke up May 29 at 27-28. Since then they are 41-20. Over that time frame the Astros have the third-best record in the AL behind the Jays and Red Sox. A notable part of Toronto’s success the past month is Joey Loperfido. He didn’t make the Jays’ big league squad coming out of spring training, and wasn’t called up until July 6. Over 72 at bats since getting back to “The Show” Loperfido is batting .389 with a .978 OPS. Reminder that Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 at bats with the Astros. Full credit to Joey for a magnificent month. Still, there is no reason for the Astros to be wracked with regret for having included Loperfido in last season’s trade for Yusei Kikuchi.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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