How Bregman’s purported departure, bullpen hierarchy bring Astros opportunities into new focus
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11 February
The Astros roster is taking shape. Composite Getty Image.
With spring training about to get started, it appears Alex Bregman has finally narrowed down his options to three teams, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
Olney indicates the Astros are out of the mix, and Bregman will choose between the Tigers, Red Sox, and Cubs. There is also a belief that Breggy will make his decision by the end of the week, and MLB Network's Harold Reynolds said his sources are telling him Alex is heading to Chicago.
We still haven't seen any concrete evidence that there's a long-term deal on the table greater than the Astros offer, which makes us think he'll sign a shorter deal with a higher AAV. Don't be surprised if Breggy inks a 3-year $105 million deal with opt-outs just like Carlos Correa did a few years back.
Houston reportedly increased their offer to Bregman last week, but we don't know exactly what that entails. Based on reports Scott Boras didn't feel Breggy should take a pay cut. It would make sense if Houston added some money to the frontend of the deal, but whatever they did, it doesn't look like it's enough.
Had the Astros been willing to go 6-years, $180 million, perhaps that would have sealed the deal. But there's also a possibility Bregman is ready to move on to another team. Maybe he doesn't feel like the club is heading in the right direction after trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. There were also reports last season that he wasn't happy with the communication from Astros manager Joe Espada when he was moved down in the order. We'll definitely have more clarity when we see the final numbers from the contract he ultimately accepts.
Call to the bullpen
Speaking of Espada, he joined the Crush City Territory podcast this week and spoke about some pitchers that will be counted on this season with Pressly now in Chicago.
The three pitchers he named were Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Forrest Whitley. Espada spoke about how he trusted Scott in high-leverage spots, and how well King through the ball last season. He also mentioned Whitley as a player he's excited about. Based on these comments, we expect Scott and King to get opportunities in the seventh inning with Pressly out of the picture.
What does Vegas think?
It depends on which sportsbook you look at. But as a frame of reference, MyBookie has the Astros as the favorites to win the division, and they have their win total at 88.5.
If the Astros end up winning the division after moving on from Bregman, Tucker, and Pressly, should Houston fans consider that a win?
Don't miss the video above as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros breaks it all down!
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Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.
