Here's how Astros next extension candidate might actually catch you by surprise
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06 March 2024
Which player will sign an extension first? Composite Getty Image.
As the Houston Astros prepare for the start of the season, one of the biggest topics of conversation has to be Alex Bregman's contract status. Bregman has yet to receive an offer from the club, as he prepares to play in the final year of his deal.
Extension talks with Kyle Tucker haven't gone very far either, but Astros GM Dana Brown has been adamant that the team will make both players an offer. The Astros have an extra year to negotiate with Tucker, as he's not set to be a free agent until after the 2025 season.
So as we wait for some movement on these situations, something Dana Brown said this week at spring training caught our attention. The Athletic's Chandler Rome recently wrote about Brown's interest in getting players signed to pre-arbitration extensions. Something Brown had a lot of success doing while he was in the Atlanta Braves front office.
Astros pitcher Cristian Javier signed one before the start of last season. He inked a deal for 5-years, $64 million shortly after Brown took the job as Astros GM.
Who could be next?
The players that fit this description currently would be Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Bryan Abreu. Out of those three, Abreu would make the most sense to extend at this time. At this early stage in their careers, it's hard to know what caliber of players Pena and Diaz will ultimately be.
But Abreu looks like he's going to be a quality high-leverage reliever for years to come. The Astros could buy out his next two years of arbitration and offer him a contract extension that would keep him in Houston long-term.
With Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly likely to leave in free agency after the 2025 season, having Abreu and Josh Hader locked in to pitch the 8th and 9th innings moving forward makes a ton of sense.
Pressly's $14 million would be off the books, along with Montero's $11.5 million in 2026. The club could use that savings to pay Abreu.
Hader is under contract through the 2028 season. It would be great to sign Abreu long-term so he could eventually be the closer when Hader's deal is up.
Around the league
Plus, how will Zack Wheeler's 3-year, $126 million contract extension with the Phillies impact Framber Valdez?
Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. We'll continue to drop more episodes throughout the week.
The Dodgers have spent a lot of money hoping to win their second straight World Series and bettors are putting their cash on Los Angeles.
BetMGM Sportsbook has taken 37.8% of its futures money on the Dodgers, which far exceeds its previous high of 21.7% of money that was placed on the 2022 New York Mets. It's also far ahead of this year's Mets, who at 9.4% are receiving the second-highest amount of the handle. The New York Yankees are third at 7.7%.
The Dodgers also lead in betting tickets at 17.5%, with the Mets next at 8.7% and the Philadelphia Phillies at 8.6%.
Opening day for most teams is Thursday.
“It's all Dodgers money,” BetMGM trading manager Halvor Egeland said. “That's somewhat frequent when it comes to the favorites. Favorites are going to take most of the money, but this is a level we don't typically see. ... It's a little bit of a hole liability wise, which is a little out of the norm for a favorite."
That's because sportsbooks typically set a high enough price in anticipation for the rush of money, but not to this level. The Dodgers, who already are 2-0 after a two-game series against the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo, are +240 at BetMGM.
The next closest are the Yankees and Atlanta Braves at +900 each.
DraftKings Sportsbook race and sports operations director Johnny Avello said the Dodgers are popular, but the futures money is fairly well spread out. LA is +290 at DraftKings and the Braves are next at +750 and the Yankees at +850.
“They've got a complete team,” Avello said of the Dodgers. “Will they win it all again? I don't know. Sometimes at the end of the year, things just need to go your way. I don't care how good you are.”
Meet the Mets
The Mets are challenging the Dodgers on spending, and the club made a splashy move by signing Juan Soto to a record $765 million, 15-year contract.
Bettors are banking on that aggressiveness to help the Mets win their first World Series title since 1986.
The Mets are listed at +1200 at BetMGM and DraftKings.
“If the Mets start off good, they're going to continue to take money,” Avello said. “If they don't start off good and we raise their odds, they're going to continue to take money. They're going to be bet all year long.”
Hope for the A's?
The Athletics went 32-32 after the All-Star break and then broke their recent practice and invested money in major league payroll.
There are believers in the A's, who are about to play their first of at least three seasons at a Triple-A ballpark in West Sacramento, California, before an anticipated move to Las Vegas,
The A's were bet up from a win total at BetMGM of 70 1/2 to 72 1/2, though the number settled back down to 71 1/2.
“We may end up going back there,” Egeland said of 72 1/2. “It seemed like as soon as we went up with the A's, there's some interest. Even in the division, we had some interest there on the A's, which is kind of surprising for the amount of money they spend. But I do think people like the young talent and pitchers like Mason Miller.”
Betting on Francona
Terry Francona was hired for another reclamation project, the Reds hoping he will find similar success in Cincinnati that he had with Boston and Cleveland.
“We are seeing some money on them to win it all,” Avello said. “You get a really good price. They’re projected to win around 78, 79 games or so. And this guy’s a winner. He finds ways to make teams that are average much better, so that’s why I think bettors are betting the Reds to win it all.”
The Reds, who have a core of young players led by Elly De La Cruz, are +8000 at BetMGM and +9000 at DraftKings.
Trout on comeback tour
Injuries have limited Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout, once the game's most complete player, to 82 or fewer games three of the past four seasons.
He is moving from center to right field with the idea that covering less ground in the outfield might help him stay healthy.
Trout is the +300 favorite at BetMGM to be selected AL Comeback Player of the Year.
“People are loving that one,” Egeland said. “It's not an award that usually gets a ton of handle, but when you have someone like Trout available, that's where most of the money is going to go.”
