Here's how Astros next extension candidate might actually catch you by surprise

WHOA!

Here's how Astros next extension candidate might actually catch you by surprise
Which player will sign an extension first? Composite Getty Image.

As the Houston Astros prepare for the start of the season, one of the biggest topics of conversation has to be Alex Bregman's contract status. Bregman has yet to receive an offer from the club, as he prepares to play in the final year of his deal.

Extension talks with Kyle Tucker haven't gone very far either, but Astros GM Dana Brown has been adamant that the team will make both players an offer. The Astros have an extra year to negotiate with Tucker, as he's not set to be a free agent until after the 2025 season.

So as we wait for some movement on these situations, something Dana Brown said this week at spring training caught our attention. The Athletic's Chandler Rome recently wrote about Brown's interest in getting players signed to pre-arbitration extensions. Something Brown had a lot of success doing while he was in the Atlanta Braves front office.

Astros pitcher Cristian Javier signed one before the start of last season. He inked a deal for 5-years, $64 million shortly after Brown took the job as Astros GM.

Who could be next?

The players that fit this description currently would be Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Bryan Abreu. Out of those three, Abreu would make the most sense to extend at this time. At this early stage in their careers, it's hard to know what caliber of players Pena and Diaz will ultimately be.

But Abreu looks like he's going to be a quality high-leverage reliever for years to come. The Astros could buy out his next two years of arbitration and offer him a contract extension that would keep him in Houston long-term.

With Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly likely to leave in free agency after the 2025 season, having Abreu and Josh Hader locked in to pitch the 8th and 9th innings moving forward makes a ton of sense.

Pressly's $14 million would be off the books, along with Montero's $11.5 million in 2026. The club could use that savings to pay Abreu.

Hader is under contract through the 2028 season. It would be great to sign Abreu long-term so he could eventually be the closer when Hader's deal is up.

Around the league

Plus, how will Zack Wheeler's 3-year, $126 million contract extension with the Phillies impact Framber Valdez?

Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. We'll continue to drop more episodes throughout the week.

Most Popular

Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

_______________

Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Tickets are $75 for VIP and $50 for General Admission. For a limited time, we’re giving you $10 off; use code SPORTSMAP at checkout. Get your tickets now!

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM