THE PALLILOG
Here's a realistic path for Houston Astros to snatch division crown
Jun 30, 2023, 1:35 pm
The biggest series of the season starts Friday night. Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images.
The Astros’ four game series in Arlington this weekend is by far their most important series of the season to date. The Astros sit five games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West after Meat Loafing it in St. Louis (two out of three ain’t bad!) while the Rangers were settling for a split of four games at home vs. the lowly Detroit Tigers. The Astros have 81 games down, 81 to go. Their 44-37 record has them equidistant from the Rangers and fourth place Mariners, making for a disappointing but nowhere near disastrous first half. Disappointing more so given the Astros’ standards over the last six years. Injuries have hurt, but the Astros’ have had no monopoly on injury issues. The Yankees have been hit harder. The Rays’ pitching staff has been hit harder than the Astros’ staff.
Not improving in the second half would probably mean no postseason play for the first time since 2016. You no doubt have seen a movie that started sluggishly but once it hit its stride, wow! On the other hand, some movies never deliver the goods. We'll see how the Astros' final cut rates. All their goals remain obtainable. Well, probably not best record in the American League with the Astros entering the weekend 10 and a half games behind the Rays.
As the Astros fully intend to successfully defend their division crown, they better at minimum split these four games with the Rangers. Obviously a sweep would be awesome for the Astros, drawing them within one game of the lead. Take three out of four to get within three games, fine and dandy. A split to hold five back would not be optimal, but definitely would keep the Astros within solid striking distance, especially with the Astros having the easier schedule through the first week and a half out of the All-Star break before they get the Rangers at Minute Maid Park in late-July. Lose three out of four at Globe Life Field to fall seven games off the pace and the Astros are about as likely to miss the playoffs as to win the division. Get swept four? Naaaaaaaah.
Chasing 100
A reminder (especially for those thinking the Astros' 44-37 first half was horrible) that as this platinum era of Astros’ baseball launched in 2017, that World Series-winning team played exactly .500 ball over a 74 game stretch. The '17 'Stros exploded from the gate with a 42-16 run of dominance. After acquiring Justin Verlander in the nick of time at the trade deadline the Astros closed with a 22-8 spurt. In between 42-16 and 22-8, 37-37. In a 162 game season 100 wins requires a .617 winning percentage. A 100 win team doesn’t win at a .617 clip every month. The 2023 Astros are near dead in the water with regard to being a 100 win team for the fifth time in the last six full seasons, unless you think 56-25 is plausible the rest of the way. That they win 50 games in the second half is not likely but clearly feasible, which would get them to 94 victories, a definite playoff spot and quite possibly another AL West title.
Who deserves to be in the All-Star Game?
It’s one thing to be a diehard fan, it’s another to be silly. Most teams do similar stuff, but honestly, it should be embarrassing for all parties involved that the Astros encouraged people to vote Martin Maldonado and Jose Abreu as American League All-Stars. If in an absurd outcome they had been elected, it would only have called rightful attention to how bad they’ve been this season, though Abreu has surged to life. As for non-goofy voting, with the time that he has missed it is not a snub that Yordan Alvarez was not voted a starter. Even with zero chance he’ll play in the game, Alvarez does deserve the honor of reserve selection. Framber Valdez obviously belongs on the AL pitching staff.
Despite bloated All-Star rosters at 32 players per league, Alvarez and Valdez are the only deserving Astros. Cristian Javier was in the hunt but has been lousy in three of his last four starts and is not presently close to being one of the eight best starting pitchers in the AL this season (eight starters and four relievers get picked). Hector Neris and Phil Maton have been excellent but as non-closers are not top four relievers. Kyle Tucker is having a good season, but definitely has not been a top six AL outfielder worthy of a second straight All-Star selection.
Let's have a reality check on the notion that Mauricio Dubon should be an All-Star second baseman. If he is added it’s a great story for him but more testament to the overall lackluster batch of second basemen performances in the American League. Dubon has been terrific for what expectations about him were going into this season. Still, it’s not as if Dubon has been exceptional. His defense has been strong, in fact it seems clear he is a better glove man than Jose Altuve at this point. But Dubon is a below average offensive player. His .286 batting average sounds good, but a woeful eight walks drawn in 259 plate appearances means his on-base percentage is a not good .309, his OPS an underwhelming .716. Also of significance, Dubon has started only 46 games at second base, just 57 percent of the schedule.
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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets such as:
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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