THE PALLILOG
How Astros homecoming brings sharp reminder of uncertain future
Aug 22, 2022, 6:37 pm
Carlos Correa makes his return to Houston on Tuesday. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Drama alert: all the intriguing backstories, stakes entering Astros-Twins matchup
The Astros have exactly zero regrets about not loading up the Brinks truck of cash it would have taken to resign Carlos Correa. Still, Correa will get a prodigal son returns type of welcome at Minute Maid Park as he plays against the Astros for the first time in his career with the Minnesota Twins in town for a three game series Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Correa missed the three early season Astros-Twins games in Minneapolis because of an injured finger. The video tribute is a given, and while it won’t be a particularly large crowd since it’s a Tuesday night against the Twins (even with dollar hot dogs!) most of those in attendance will give Correa a rightfully warm ovation. Correa’s glorious Astros moments are several. At the top is probably his 2019 game two American League Championship Series game winning home run over the Yankees with the runner-up his 2020 ALCS game five game winning homer vs. the Rays. After the pregame pomp and circumstance, Correa more or less becomes just another opponent.
Correa vs. Peña
Let’s be clear. Purely as baseball talents no big league team would rather have Jeremy Peña at shortstop right now than Carlos Correa. Peña has been awful offensively for going on three months now. As a rookie who wasn’t expected to be a stud he doesn’t deserve blame but reality is he’s one of the several problems in the Astros’ lineup. Correa is much better at the plate but does not rank among the elite hitters in the game. If still with the Astros Correa would be their fifth best lineup cog after Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker.
Jim Crane and his ownership partners are giddy to have Peña playing for the major league minimum salary of 700 thousand dollars versus the tick over 35 million bucks Correa is pulling down from the Twins. However, Peña’s potential is not close to what Correa’s was. Coincidentally they share a birthday. Correa turns 28 September 22, Peña turns 25. That means Jeremy is no young phenom, though it looks like he should be a capable shortstop for a few years and be so on the cheap. If Peña is to be a plus offensive player he absolutely must improve his strike zone judgment and management. Peña's 103 strikeouts with just 19 walks tells the story.
Looking ahead
Correa is expected to opt out of the two years left on his Twins contract and re-try free agency. The Astros won’t be dreaming of a reunion and are likely happy that Correa rejected their final offer last offseason of five years 160 million dollars. I’m sure Correa doesn’t regret not taking that offer, but as of the current standings he will not be playing in any playoff games this year. The Twins though are in close races for the AL Central title and for one of the three AL Wild Card spots. As for his second free agent go round financial prospects, only a desperate and/or stupid team would give him something approaching the 10 years 325 million the Rangers gave Corey Seager or the 10 years 341 million the Mets threw at Francisco Lindor. How’s that 14 year 340 mil contract the Padres lavished upon 22-year-old Fernando Tatis working out so far? But all it takes is one desperate and/or stupid team and Correa’s agent Scott Boras will be on the prowl.
Correa is a very good player but has had only one superstar level offensive season and that was five years ago. The defensive analytics say his play in the field has fallen this year from his Gold Glove farewell Astros season. Correa is a big guy who is not likely to age well defensively in his 30s, not as a shortstop anyway. Moving to third could be in his future but he doesn’t hit like Alex Rodriguez did for years or the way Manny Machado does now, hence Correa’s long term value projection further declines. Still, there will be a market for him even though he will not be the obvious crown jewel free agent shortstop. Also on the board this offseason will be the Red Sox’ Xander Bogaerts, the Braves’ Dansby Swanson, and Dodgers’ stud Trea Turner. If Boston moves on from Bogaerts could the Alex Cora-managed Sox be in play? Ditto the richy-rich Dodgers with Turner, probably much less so the Braves with Swanson. The Yankees’ best prospect is a shortstop but prospects are prospects. How do the Yanks react if they go down in flames short of the World Series for the 13th consecutive season? Bank on Anthony Volpe being their next Derek Jeter or go for a proven big league commodity?
Correa’s future is up in the air. The Astros will celebrate his past before the series opener. Then hope his present includes 0-4.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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