THE PALLILOG
Here are the Houston Astros implications of the latest Carlos Correa situation
Dec 15, 2022, 4:44 pm
THE PALLILOG
The Astros in 2023 will pay Jeremy Peña as little above the Major League Baseball minimum salary of 700-thousand dollars as they choose to pay him. That Peña earned both American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player and World Series MVP honors basically means nothing. Peña’s salary for the coming season will be roughly that of David Hensley and Seth Martinez (provided both are also on the team). If you’re thinking “No way!,” as Madonna told Wayne and Garth in the 80s, “Way!” Yordan Alvarez won Rookie of the Year in 2019 and had a terrific 2021. For 2022 the Astros paid Yordan $762,000. Despite his postseason tour de force Peña’s resume isn’t nearly as strong now as Yordan’s was a year ago. This won’t be the Astros screwing Jeremy Peña, it’s the system which the Players Association negotiates with the owners. Peña is in line to make peanuts (in MLB money terms) again in 2024 before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. For how much longer is to be determined, but Carlos Correa is a better player than Jeremy Peña. Still, man are the Astros lucky and delighted that Peña was their shortstop in 2022 and will be going forward.
Massive payday for Correa
Congratulations to Carlos Correa. Agent Scott Boras doesn’t always play the owners like fiddles but his batting average sure is high. After missing on their prime target (Aaron Judge) the San Francisco Giants made Correa the big beneficiary by lavishing a 13 year 350 million dollar contract upon him. Is LOL still a thing? Correa is an outstanding player who will always have a lofty place in Astros history, but a year in year out superstar he has never been and is unlikely to be going forward. You know he’s only made two All-Star teams? Not that All-Star selections are close to a be-all end-all in defining excellence (Jeff Bagwell only made four All-Star teams).
Unless they’re insane the Giants can’t possibly think the back half of the deal will work out well for them. In raw numbers Correa is taking a pay cut. He made 35.1 million dollars from the Twins this year after turning down the Astros’ five years at 32 mil per season offer. 13 years 350 mil averages a touch under 27 mil per season. So, not thinking of the Giants as flat out stupid, there is little doubt that they stretched the deal to 13 years to lower its cost per season as it counts toward the Competitive Balance Tax. Maybe they think of it as a 10 year 350 million dollar bag with the last three years as straight sunk cost. That’d still be nuts but in fairness it should be included that with these mega-length contracts, with normal levels of inflation (let’s say 2.5% per year) today’s 35 million will be more like “only” 24 25 million in today’s dollars come 2033. Still oodles of money.
Correa is a 28-year-old big-bodied shortstop with a spotty durability track record. The great Cal Ripken Jr. was a big-bodied shortstop who was legendarily durable. Ripken had one great season after his 28th birthday. There is zero chance Correa is an elite defensive shortstop in the last five years of his new deal (in the ninth year of the contract Correa will be 35 years old, in the 13th and final season he’ll be 40). Some defensive metrics rated him as merely a little above average this year. If/when Correa’s defensive decline is indisputable, his value plunges with his offensive history not uber-elite.
Alex Bregman’s career on base percentage is .375. Correa’s OBP has been .375 or better once in his career. That was in 2017, the lone healthy season of his career in which Correa performed like an offensive superstar. Considering he did that at age 22, that he might be an offensive monster for a long time was very legit. Five years later he’s never matched that level. It’s not unfair to mention that 2017 was the season of, well, you know. Correa has never hit more than 26 home runs in a season, never driven in more than 96 runs in a season, only once scored more than 82 runs in a season, and just once finished in the top 15 of American League Most Valuable Player Award voting (fifth in 2021). Some of that is explained by injury issues, some by a couple seasons of mediocre performance. 13 years, 350 mil? The price of poker only goes up but the Astros are way too smart for something like that. Or at least they have been to this point.
Speaking of Alex Bregman, what numbers must be joyfully dancing in his head seeing Correa (28 years old-13 years 350 mil), Trae Turner (29/11-300), and Xander Bogaerts (30/11-280) get what they got? Yes Bregman is a third baseman not a shortstop but over their careers Bregman has been a better offensive player than all of them. What is Jim Crane thinking of it all? Barring an extension before then, Bregman will be 30 when he hits free agency after the 2024 season. Jose Altuve can hit the market at the same time but he’ll be 34. Kyle Tucker can get to free agency at age 28 following the 2025 season.
Astros podcast
Mondays live at 3PM I join Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. You can find it live on YouTube, then available on demand there and in podcast form at a bunch of places...
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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