THE PALLILOG
Here are the Houston Astros implications of the latest Carlos Correa situation
Dec 15, 2022, 4:44 pm
THE PALLILOG
The Astros in 2023 will pay Jeremy Peña as little above the Major League Baseball minimum salary of 700-thousand dollars as they choose to pay him. That Peña earned both American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player and World Series MVP honors basically means nothing. Peña’s salary for the coming season will be roughly that of David Hensley and Seth Martinez (provided both are also on the team). If you’re thinking “No way!,” as Madonna told Wayne and Garth in the 80s, “Way!” Yordan Alvarez won Rookie of the Year in 2019 and had a terrific 2021. For 2022 the Astros paid Yordan $762,000. Despite his postseason tour de force Peña’s resume isn’t nearly as strong now as Yordan’s was a year ago. This won’t be the Astros screwing Jeremy Peña, it’s the system which the Players Association negotiates with the owners. Peña is in line to make peanuts (in MLB money terms) again in 2024 before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. For how much longer is to be determined, but Carlos Correa is a better player than Jeremy Peña. Still, man are the Astros lucky and delighted that Peña was their shortstop in 2022 and will be going forward.
Massive payday for Correa
Congratulations to Carlos Correa. Agent Scott Boras doesn’t always play the owners like fiddles but his batting average sure is high. After missing on their prime target (Aaron Judge) the San Francisco Giants made Correa the big beneficiary by lavishing a 13 year 350 million dollar contract upon him. Is LOL still a thing? Correa is an outstanding player who will always have a lofty place in Astros history, but a year in year out superstar he has never been and is unlikely to be going forward. You know he’s only made two All-Star teams? Not that All-Star selections are close to a be-all end-all in defining excellence (Jeff Bagwell only made four All-Star teams).
Unless they’re insane the Giants can’t possibly think the back half of the deal will work out well for them. In raw numbers Correa is taking a pay cut. He made 35.1 million dollars from the Twins this year after turning down the Astros’ five years at 32 mil per season offer. 13 years 350 mil averages a touch under 27 mil per season. So, not thinking of the Giants as flat out stupid, there is little doubt that they stretched the deal to 13 years to lower its cost per season as it counts toward the Competitive Balance Tax. Maybe they think of it as a 10 year 350 million dollar bag with the last three years as straight sunk cost. That’d still be nuts but in fairness it should be included that with these mega-length contracts, with normal levels of inflation (let’s say 2.5% per year) today’s 35 million will be more like “only” 24 25 million in today’s dollars come 2033. Still oodles of money.
Correa is a 28-year-old big-bodied shortstop with a spotty durability track record. The great Cal Ripken Jr. was a big-bodied shortstop who was legendarily durable. Ripken had one great season after his 28th birthday. There is zero chance Correa is an elite defensive shortstop in the last five years of his new deal (in the ninth year of the contract Correa will be 35 years old, in the 13th and final season he’ll be 40). Some defensive metrics rated him as merely a little above average this year. If/when Correa’s defensive decline is indisputable, his value plunges with his offensive history not uber-elite.
Alex Bregman’s career on base percentage is .375. Correa’s OBP has been .375 or better once in his career. That was in 2017, the lone healthy season of his career in which Correa performed like an offensive superstar. Considering he did that at age 22, that he might be an offensive monster for a long time was very legit. Five years later he’s never matched that level. It’s not unfair to mention that 2017 was the season of, well, you know. Correa has never hit more than 26 home runs in a season, never driven in more than 96 runs in a season, only once scored more than 82 runs in a season, and just once finished in the top 15 of American League Most Valuable Player Award voting (fifth in 2021). Some of that is explained by injury issues, some by a couple seasons of mediocre performance. 13 years, 350 mil? The price of poker only goes up but the Astros are way too smart for something like that. Or at least they have been to this point.
Speaking of Alex Bregman, what numbers must be joyfully dancing in his head seeing Correa (28 years old-13 years 350 mil), Trae Turner (29/11-300), and Xander Bogaerts (30/11-280) get what they got? Yes Bregman is a third baseman not a shortstop but over their careers Bregman has been a better offensive player than all of them. What is Jim Crane thinking of it all? Barring an extension before then, Bregman will be 30 when he hits free agency after the 2024 season. Jose Altuve can hit the market at the same time but he’ll be 34. Kyle Tucker can get to free agency at age 28 following the 2025 season.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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