THE PALLILOG
Here are the Houston Astros implications of the latest Carlos Correa situation
Dec 15, 2022, 4:44 pm
Alex Bregman has to be a fan of the Correa contract. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Changes have already begun for Houston Astros scuffling offense
The Astros in 2023 will pay Jeremy Peña as little above the Major League Baseball minimum salary of 700-thousand dollars as they choose to pay him. That Peña earned both American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player and World Series MVP honors basically means nothing. Peña’s salary for the coming season will be roughly that of David Hensley and Seth Martinez (provided both are also on the team). If you’re thinking “No way!,” as Madonna told Wayne and Garth in the 80s, “Way!” Yordan Alvarez won Rookie of the Year in 2019 and had a terrific 2021. For 2022 the Astros paid Yordan $762,000. Despite his postseason tour de force Peña’s resume isn’t nearly as strong now as Yordan’s was a year ago. This won’t be the Astros screwing Jeremy Peña, it’s the system which the Players Association negotiates with the owners. Peña is in line to make peanuts (in MLB money terms) again in 2024 before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. For how much longer is to be determined, but Carlos Correa is a better player than Jeremy Peña. Still, man are the Astros lucky and delighted that Peña was their shortstop in 2022 and will be going forward.
Massive payday for Correa
Congratulations to Carlos Correa. Agent Scott Boras doesn’t always play the owners like fiddles but his batting average sure is high. After missing on their prime target (Aaron Judge) the San Francisco Giants made Correa the big beneficiary by lavishing a 13 year 350 million dollar contract upon him. Is LOL still a thing? Correa is an outstanding player who will always have a lofty place in Astros history, but a year in year out superstar he has never been and is unlikely to be going forward. You know he’s only made two All-Star teams? Not that All-Star selections are close to a be-all end-all in defining excellence (Jeff Bagwell only made four All-Star teams).
Unless they’re insane the Giants can’t possibly think the back half of the deal will work out well for them. In raw numbers Correa is taking a pay cut. He made 35.1 million dollars from the Twins this year after turning down the Astros’ five years at 32 mil per season offer. 13 years 350 mil averages a touch under 27 mil per season. So, not thinking of the Giants as flat out stupid, there is little doubt that they stretched the deal to 13 years to lower its cost per season as it counts toward the Competitive Balance Tax. Maybe they think of it as a 10 year 350 million dollar bag with the last three years as straight sunk cost. That’d still be nuts but in fairness it should be included that with these mega-length contracts, with normal levels of inflation (let’s say 2.5% per year) today’s 35 million will be more like “only” 24 25 million in today’s dollars come 2033. Still oodles of money.
Correa is a 28-year-old big-bodied shortstop with a spotty durability track record. The great Cal Ripken Jr. was a big-bodied shortstop who was legendarily durable. Ripken had one great season after his 28th birthday. There is zero chance Correa is an elite defensive shortstop in the last five years of his new deal (in the ninth year of the contract Correa will be 35 years old, in the 13th and final season he’ll be 40). Some defensive metrics rated him as merely a little above average this year. If/when Correa’s defensive decline is indisputable, his value plunges with his offensive history not uber-elite.
Alex Bregman’s career on base percentage is .375. Correa’s OBP has been .375 or better once in his career. That was in 2017, the lone healthy season of his career in which Correa performed like an offensive superstar. Considering he did that at age 22, that he might be an offensive monster for a long time was very legit. Five years later he’s never matched that level. It’s not unfair to mention that 2017 was the season of, well, you know. Correa has never hit more than 26 home runs in a season, never driven in more than 96 runs in a season, only once scored more than 82 runs in a season, and just once finished in the top 15 of American League Most Valuable Player Award voting (fifth in 2021). Some of that is explained by injury issues, some by a couple seasons of mediocre performance. 13 years, 350 mil? The price of poker only goes up but the Astros are way too smart for something like that. Or at least they have been to this point.
Speaking of Alex Bregman, what numbers must be joyfully dancing in his head seeing Correa (28 years old-13 years 350 mil), Trae Turner (29/11-300), and Xander Bogaerts (30/11-280) get what they got? Yes Bregman is a third baseman not a shortstop but over their careers Bregman has been a better offensive player than all of them. What is Jim Crane thinking of it all? Barring an extension before then, Bregman will be 30 when he hits free agency after the 2024 season. Jose Altuve can hit the market at the same time but he’ll be 34. Kyle Tucker can get to free agency at age 28 following the 2025 season.
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What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
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