How unlocking the real Cristian Javier could finally be within reach for Astros

HE'S WAY TOO PREDICATABLE

One of the biggest contributors to the Houston Astros title run in 2022 was none other than Cristian Javier. Javier worked his way into the rotation last year and finished the season on a high note with a combined no-hitter in the World Series.

Javier was rewarded with a contract extension in the offseason, but his performance this year is causing some serious concern. Astros GM Dana Brown recently said the biggest reason for Javier's struggles is fatigue. That's what is causing him to not be as sharp.

If that is indeed the issue with Javier, why not skip him in the rotation from time to time, like the team is currently doing with JP France and Hunter Brown? This will decrease the amount of innings he has to throw between now and the postseason and, in theory, have Javier more fresh for the playoffs.

Plus, is there an easy fix for Cristian Javier? When looking at the advanced analytics, Javier isn't using his fastball at the bottom of the strike zone, especially on the corners. This was a big piece of Javier's arsenal last season, just watch the highlights from the World Series no-hitter.

We all know he has a lot of success up in the strike zone with his fastball, much like Justin Verlander. But Verlander also paints the corners at the knees and uses his slider to work off that pitch. Something Javier did last season with a lot of success. It doesn't have to be one or the other. Notice in the image below that he's rarely using the bottom third of the strike zone with his fastball. The fastballs are shown in red.

Screenshot via: Baseball Savant.

In essence, hitters know that if the ball is up this year with Javier, it's probably going to be a fastball. If it's down, it's likely an off-speed pitch. Javier throws the fastball roughly 60% of the time. So hitters know they can hunt fastballs up in the zone, and take anything low.

Which raises the question, is this a problem with philosophy? Or is Javier's level of fatigue keeping him from being sharp enough to hit the corners at the bottom of the zone?

Don't miss the video above as we try to solve what's ailing Javier in 2023.

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The Rangers beat the Astros, 5-1. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images.

Joc Pederson broke a tie with a two-run home run in the sixth inning, Wyatt Langford hit a solo shot in a two-run seventh and the Texas Rangers beat the Houston Astros 5-1 on Saturday night.

Tyler Mahle (5-1) allowed the one run over six innings, keeping his ERA at 1.47 — ranking third in the AL.

The Rangers have taken two of the first three games of the four-game series.

Pederson, hitting .123 with four RBI to that point as Texas’ primary DH this season, followed Marcus Semien’s one-out single off Ronel Blanco (3-4) with a drive to right-center for his second homer of the season.

Langford’s homer off Bennett Sousa immediately followed Josh Smith’s sacrifice fly that scored Sam Haggerty. Haggerty led off with a walk and was picked off first base, but he reached third when first baseman Christian Walker threw low to second base.

The Astros took a 1-0 lead four batters in when Walker hit a 3-2 fastball for an opposite-field double to score Isaac Paredes.

Texas tied it in the third when Langford singled home Kyle Higashioka, who walked and reached third on Haggerty’s ground-rule double.

The Astros left seven runners on base and were 0 for 4 hitting with runners in scoring position.

Key moment

Haggerty was a late replacement in Texas’ lineup after Evan Carter was scratched with right quadriceps tightness.

Key stat

Three Rangers starters rank in the AL’s 10 top in ERA, Mahle joined by Nathan Eovaldi (fourth at 1.51) and Jacob deGrom (10th at 2.29).

Up next

Astros LHP Framber Valdez (2-4, 3.54 ERA) was set to face Rangers rookie RHP Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.34) on Sunday in the series finale.

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