How Astros simple, game-changing moves already position them for greater success
KEEP IT SIMPLE
14 December 2023
A lot has been made of how the Houston Astros are approaching the offseason. With the club slightly over the tax threshold, many believe the Astros are done making significant moves.
And while it would certainly be exciting to see the Astros make some blockbuster acquisitions, we could make the case that the team will be better this season because of addition by subtraction.
One could make the argument that the team is significantly better just by replacing Martin Maldonado with Yainer Diaz. Making Chas McCormick a regular starter should also have a positive impact on the team.
The Dusty effect
Dusty Baker refusing to move a struggling Jose Abreu down in the lineup also hurt the team. As well as continuing to use Rafael Montero in high-leverage situations, despite the poor results. We don't foresee Joe Espada making decisions like this.
Plus, many fans don't view the Victor Caratini signing as a big time move, but he has the ability to play first base and catcher. We saw how much better Jose Abreu hit later in the season after getting some rest after dealing with a back injury.
Without Baker penciling him in the lineup every day, an older player like Abreu could flourish with less wear and tear.
What about the pitching?
Most of the Astros pitchers regressed in 2023. There's a case to be made that the staff could bounce back, simply because pitching is kind of fluky by nature.
Pitchers follow up good years with bad ones, and vice versa all the time.
Don't miss the video above for the full conversation as we explain why staying under the tax threshold could greatly benefit the team after the season, and much more.
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How Astros' eye-opening moves set stage for most unpredictable Opening Day in recent memory
Mar 24, 2025, 5:06 pm
As the Houston Astros finalize their Opening Day roster, some notable names have been left off the team. Outfielder Ben Gamel and first baseman Jon Singleton were among the cuts, with both players struggling at the plate this spring. Singleton, despite coming into camp in excellent shape, hit just .171 with one extra-base hit in 41 at-bats. Gamel fared no better, batting .167 in 24 at-bats while dealing with injuries. Many expected the Astros to keep at least one of them for their left-handed bat, but the team opted for other options. Notably, Victor Caratini, a switch-hitter, provides valuable depth behind Christian Walker at first base and offers manager Joe Espada a quality pinch-hit option late in games.
Key storylines heading into the season
1. Jose Altuve’s transition to left field
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season is how long the Astros will stick with Jose Altuve in left field if he struggles defensively. The longtime second baseman is making the switch, but if he fails to adjust, Houston may have to explore alternative solutions.
2. Jeremy Peña’s next step
After a stellar spring, will this be the year Jeremy Peña takes his game to another level? While he's unlikely to develop into a high-walk hitter, a return to his rookie-year power numbers could be a major boost for the Astros. In 2023, he hit 22 homers and slugged .426, and Houston will need that production again.
3. Yordan Alvarez’s Health and MVP Potential
Alvarez remains the key piece of the Astros’ lineup, and if he can stay healthy, his 40-plus home run potential makes him a serious AL MVP candidate. He currently has the fourth-best MVP odds in the league.
4. Will Cam Smith and/or Zach Dezenzo make the final cut?
If manager Joe Esapa keeps his word, both Smith and Dezenzo are unlikely to make the team. Espada has been adamant that both players require every day at-bats. Which Houston can't accommodate with the current roster construction.
Bullpen outlook
Houston’s bullpen will be anchored by star closer Josh Hader and setup man Bryan Abreu. Other key arms include Tayler Scott, Bryan King, Rafael Montero, Luis Contreras, and Steven Okert.
Ryan Gusto (1.17 spring ERA) is a candidate to make the squad but could be a roster casualty when Forrest Whitley or Caleb Ort return from injury.
Whitley’s string of bad luck continues, as he’ll begin the season on the injured list despite an impressive spring. Montero, meanwhile, was a surprise roster inclusion given his struggles, especially since Logan VanWey outperformed him this spring. The Astros appear to be hoping for a bounce-back year from Montero, though he should be limited to mop-up duties early on.
Betting lines and projections via MyBookie
- Win total: Astros 87.5, Rangers 85.5, Mariners 84.5
- AL Pennant odds: Astros +760 (3rd-best), behind Yankees (+370) and Orioles (+590)
- AL West odds: Astros +163 (favorites), followed by Rangers, Mariners, Angels, and A’s
- World Series odds: Astros +1650 (7th-best), behind Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Orioles
- Astros win total through April over/under: 16.5 wins in 30 games
- Houston started slowly last season, going just 10-19 through April.
As the season begins, Houston has a strong roster with playoff aspirations, but key questions remain. Can Altuve adjust to left field? Will Peña and Alvarez step up? And can the bullpen hold firm? The answers will shape the Astros' 2025 campaign.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday live right after the game. Click here to catch!
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