With Astros spiraling, we're about to finally see first substantial shakeup of season
SHAKE IT UP!
24 April
The Astros are changing the batting order. Composite Getty Image.
Astros GM Dana Brown joined the Astros flagship on Wednesday and discussed several trending topics impacting the club right now.
Are they open to changing the batting order?
It's no secret Alex Bregman is off to another slow start. But how much longer can you bat a guy at cleanup who has 5 RBIs and no home runs on the season? When asked about it, Brown sounded open to the idea of moving Bregman until he starts heating up.
“Yeah, I think at some point Joe will make an adjustment there,” said Brown. Overall though, he sounds more concerned with the team's inability to hit with runners in scoring position. He's not happy with the quality of their at-bats in critical situations. He also made it clear that Espada is in charge of the lineup, just like Dusty Baker was before him.
That didn't take long!
The Astros lineup has been released for game two against the Cubs. Notice Bregman is hitting second and Yordan Alvarez is batting third.
The Astros against Jameson Taillon: Altuve 4, Bregman 5, Alvarez 7, Tucker 9, Diaz DH, Peña 6, Singleton 3, Caratini 2, Meyers 8
Arrighetti RHP
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 24, 2024
Injury updates
Cristian Javier heading to the IL was a “cautionary” move with the team having so many days off. Brown said Javier missing only two starts felt like the smart move. Pitching him too soon in a cold environment like Chicago felt too risky. And Framber Valdez could return to the rotation after the series in Mexico City.
Jose Abreu can't be the best option at first base
Brown addressed the Abreu situation just like Espada did on Tuesday. They both talked about “mixing and matching” and how they've already done some of that this year. But Abreu was in the lineup again on Tuesday, and once again did not record a hit. You have to wonder if Espada and Brown are being pressured to start Abreu. But then again, Brown made it clear that the guys getting opportunities when Abreu sits, aren't coming through either. He's not wrong. Singleton is getting the start on Wednesday, and Dubon (who has the third-most RBIs on the team) is sitting once again.
Is there any accountability for players that don't perform?
Brown responded by saying, “I do think these guys are taking this seriously.” He also mentioned there are some players in the minors playing well, and at some point they'll have to make a move. “There's some urgency in that respect,” said Brown. This comment applied to both position players and pitchers. Which makes me think JP France better get things going. Dana said in passing several times that you're not giving your team a legit chance to win by allowing five runs in the first inning. Even if you do settle down over the next few innings.
Playing with a sense of urgency
Brown was asked if the team's approach would be the same if they were 5.5 games back with only 30 games left to play. This response was very interesting.
He said, “Dubon would sneak in there a little more” and they would play the guys that are more consistently producing. That statement made me feel much better. Brown and Espada see the same things we see. Dana pointed out that you try to give your best hitters a chance to get going early in the year. If that doesn't work, you look for other options. Clearly, the Astros aren't to the point in the season when winning each game is the top priority. The MLB season is a marathon.
“You can't start sprinting too early,” said Brown. If the Astros were in a better division, you wonder if they would feel differently. They keep saying they're only 5.5 games back in the division, which is true. But he never mentioned that the team is ten games under .500.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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