THE PALLILOG
Truth, solutions and post-deadline drama ahead for Houston Astros
Aug 3, 2022, 12:49 pm
The Astros added some important pieces. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images
With the trade deadline in the rearview, time to reset where the Astros are heading to the regular season’s final two months. This Astros team is fully capable of winning the World Series. This Astros team is also capable of getting shutdown and eliminated in the Division Series. Their pitching is terrific. The best starters’ earned run average in the American League led by a gold standard ace in Justin Verlander, backed up by relievers who have combined for the best bullpen ERA in the AL. Sure the pitching could implode in October but there are no key factors to make one believe it will. Adding lefty Will Smith to the pen could be anything from a non-factor to a serious bonus.
The offense on the other hand is simply mediocre, 15th among the 30 Major League Baseball teams in runs scored per game. The offense could explode in October but there are no key factors to make one believe it will. This despite Yordan Alvarez’s superhuman season to date. The Astros reach the two-thirds mark of the schedule Friday night in Cleveland. Things can turn inside out in two months, and the very nature of postseason baseball means form charts routinely belong in a shredder. But this offense is shaky. Astro apologists might argue that offense is down all across the big leagues this year. Consider the following: In 2021 the Astros led Major League Baseball with a .267 batting average while the other 29 teams combined to hit .243. This year the Astros have fallen sharply to .240, while the other 29 teams have combined to hit… .243.
Alex Bregman has picked it up some but for the third straight season he is not a quality number three or cleanup hitter.
Kyle Tucker has been atrocious the last month. Worse than Martin Maldonado has been overall this season atrocious. After starting the season with just four hits in 46 at bats, Tucker was fabulous for over a month, the guy who emerged as a star level performer last season. Season opening stink mode has returned. July 3 through August 2 spanning 26 games, Tucker didn’t even slug .300 much less bat anywhere near .300. A slash line of .175/.243/.299 is a deep, foul funk.
After a rousing first seven weeks of his big league career, Jeremy Pena has been poor for over two months. Over his last 44 games he’s batting just .216. Managing the strike zone is a big problem as reflected by 48 strikeouts with just seven walks drawn over those 44 games. Better adjustment is needed to counter the league’s adjustments to him.
Yuli Gurriel has had a good couple of weeks. Well, Maldonado had a good July. It’s about full body of work and Yuli’s this season at 38 years old is not good. He should no longer be pretty much an automatically in the starting lineup every day guy. Certainly not after General Manager James Click’s trade deadline acquisitions.
Credit to James Click
Click did solid work given the Astros’ subpar farm system left him without the assets to plausibly reel in any of the biggest fish on the market. He did nothing spectacular like the Padres’ incredible haul and did not make an individual addition as potentially significant as the Yankees adding Frankie Montas, but Click added better players at two of the Astros’ three weak link lineup spots. Mancini’s best position is first base and he has clearly been better than Gurriel this year. Though unless Michael Brantley returns in form (seemingly less likely by the day) Mancini probably plays more corner outfield (played 13 games in the outfield this year, none before that since 2019) and DHs when Alvarez is in left than he plays first.
Christian Vazquez is an obvious upgrade over Maldonado and unless he plays himself out of the role Vazquez should obviously get the majority of starts behind the plate. Right Dusty? As your humble columnist noted weeks ago, Maldonado as defensive Yoda savant is overrated. Yes the pitchers like throwing to him. That’s true for a number of catchers, including Vazquez in Boston. Maldonado leads the league in passed balls and it’s myth that he wipes out opposing running games. “The Machete” has cut down the same percentage (25%) of would be base stealers this season as Jason Castro. Astros’ pitching earned run average is lower with Castro catching than Maldonado. It’s not as if Castro before injured was Verlander’s personal catcher hence skewing the numbers. If Vazquez performs at the level he did with the Red Sox this season, he is a good bottom of the order batter. Maldonado is not. This year’s Astros’ lineup is not nearly as potent as the 2017, 2019, or 2021 versions. It’s not complicated.
Center field remains in the at this point incapable hands of Jake Meyers, the should only play against left-handed pitching Chas McCormick, and I guess occasionally Mauricio Dubon. Hey, no one fields a team devoid of weakness.
And with all these offensive warts, the Astros are still on pace to win 103 games. Bring on October.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.