LOOKING AHEAD
MLB insider shares insight on Dusty Baker's future with Houston Astros
Sep 28, 2023, 5:05 pm
Will Dusty Baker be back next season? Composite Getty Image.
Last week, Sports Illustrated asked … “Will Dusty Baker be back managing the Houston Astros next year?”
That was followed by an ESPN commentator piling on, “I'm starting to lose trust in the Astros. Seems like the entire team has just fallen apart” in part blaming manager Baker's reputation for over-using and burning out young pitchers.
Then MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal, not exactly a hot take blowhard, hammered another nail in Baker's job security, reporting that Astros management already is considering who might be Baker's successor next season. Rosenthal even floated Atlanta Braves coaches Eric Young and Walt Weiss as candidates.
More and more it appears that, win or lose, Baker is going, going, gonzo – dead manager walking. The only question remaining is, will Baker leave the Astros triumphantly, riding a firetruck in another World Series parade, or be carried out on his bullheaded, obstinate shield?
Baker is working on a ticking, one-year contract. If the Astros fail to invite Baker back for 2024, it won't be the first time that a team parted ways with Baker as manager. It won't be the second time. Or third time. Or fourth time. It will be the fifth, and by the actuarial calendar, final time. Baker is 74, the oldest current manager in baseball, the fifth oldest in history.
The Astros hired Baker in 2020 as a mature, calming influence in the embers of the Astros sign-stealing scandal. His other managerial stops were the San Francisco Giants (1993-2002), Chicago Cubs (2003-2006), Cincinnati Reds (2008-2013), Washington Nationals (2016-2010). In all those cases, Baker seems to have worn out his welcome, butting heads with management and owners. And sometimes with fans.
That appears to be the story in Houston. Months ago, newly hired general manager Dana Brown publicly expressed a wish that Baker play rookie sensation Yanier Diaz more at catcher instead of veteran Martin Maldonado. Fans lit up the phone lines on radio shows pleading with Baker to put Diaz behind the plate. More recently, a published report in The Athletic claimed that several people in the Astros organization were frustrated that Baker doesn't play outfielder Chas McCormick more regularly.
Baker's typical retort: I don't need any help filling out the lineup card. Once he dismissed fans' feelings by saying, "If you listen to fans, soon you'll be sitting with them." Those aren't endearing, fan-friendly comments.
It's no coincidence that Braves coaches Young and Weiss are rumored to be on the Astro wish list of candidates. General manager Brown was the Braves' vice-president of scouting for four years when Astros owner Jim Crane hired him this season.
Fans surely realize that Crane and Brown are watching the same Astros games as they do. They see the same stat sheets. They know that Diaz is batting .282 with extraordinary power and speed for a catcher, while Maldonado is batting .192 with a penchant for leaving runners on base. More important, Maldonado has thrown out only 13 of 79 base stealers, a horrid 14 percent, and is leading the American League with 12 passed balls. He also led the league in passed balls last season. It's sort of his thing.
Meanwhile, Diaz has thrown out 15 of 50 base stealers for a competent 30 percent, and has zero passed balls. Simply, Martin Maldonado is a defensive specialist who's a defensive liability.
Baker is 74 years old, the oldest manager in baseball, set in his ways, at times cranky and short with the media. He is old school, a manager who believes he, and no one else, is in charge between the white lines. It's important to note that Dana Brown did not hire Baker. That's a big deal for a general manager. If 2024 is a transitional year for the Astros, a rebuild on the run with younger players, and a new sheriff in town, Baker wouldn't be the logical choice for manager.
If Baker is not invited back for 2024, he leaves a Hall of Fame legacy as a skipper. He is the only manager to win a divisional title with five different teams. He is the eighth winningest manager in MLB history. He is No. 1 in wins for an African-American manager. And what we care most about in Houston, he guided the Astros to three ALCS (with one in the oven) and has a World Series ring for leading the Astros to the World Series in 2022.
Let's not forget, his story is not finished.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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