How Dusty Baker's next moves will shape Houston Astros postseason campaign

MOVING ON UP

Now that the Houston Astros have won the AL West once again, we can reflect on how they were able to snatch the division from the Rangers, and try to replicate that success in the playoffs.

Down the stretch, Justin Verlander pitched like classic Verlander, with 4 good performances out of 5. Which allowed the Astros to achieve their divisional goal once again. With no start bigger than his domination of the Mariners in Seattle with the season on the line.

Based on which pitcher played the best down the stretch, we believe Justin Verlander will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS this Saturday. Framber Valdez certainly deserves consideration, but he hasn't pitched as well as JV recently.

But if the Astros have interest in pitching Framber on three days rest during the series, starting him in Game 1 would be the way to go. He would then pitch Game 4 and Verlander could pitch Game 2 and Game 5 on normal rest.

If Dusty Baker opts to use 4 starters in the series, it will be interesting to see if he goes back to Jose Urquidy after his impressive performance against Arizona, or if JP France will get the nod. We assume Cristian Javier is a lock to pitch Game 3.

The other big question for the Astros involves the bullpen. Bryan Abreu has been fantastic this year, and Ryan Pressly has had some struggles. Would Baker change his closer for the postseason?

We doubt Dusty will make a change when the playoffs begin, but it will be fascinating to see how Abreu is deployed moving forward. And clearly Hector Neris is Dusty's “cleaner” of sorts, meaning when guys are on base, and you need someone to shut the door, Neris is the guy for the job.

Which brought up a fascinating discussion. Baker has said in the past that he likes to bring in relievers like Rafael Montero earlier in the game. His logic being if Montero gives up some runs, there's still plenty of time to come back and win. But will Baker operate the same way in the postseason, or is that just something he likes to do during a long regular season?

If a starter gets into trouble in the middle innings, we'd like to see Neris come in and limit the damage and ideally maintain the lead. Even it that means he won't be available to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning.

We just saw Montero come in for Javier in the 4th inning with 2 outs against Seattle, and we know what happened. He gave up some many runs that the game was effectively over after his appearance. And he didn't even record a single out.

Finally, we discuss if the Astros will carry a third catcher on the playoff roster. This would allow Dusty to have more options if he feels he needs to pinch hit when the situation dictates it.

Fearing an injury to his starting catcher, Dusty was reluctant to use Christian Vazquez as a DH in the playoffs until Game 6 of the World Series last year. By then, a third catcher was added to the roster after Yuli Gurriel injured his knee. Yainer Diaz could be in the same boat this season.

One thing we know for sure, the Twins are coming to Minute Maid on Saturday.

Don't miss the video above for the full discussion!

And be sure to watch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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