How Dusty Baker's next moves will shape Houston Astros postseason campaign
MOVING ON UP
04 October 2023
Now that the Houston Astros have won the AL West once again, we can reflect on how they were able to snatch the division from the Rangers, and try to replicate that success in the playoffs.
Down the stretch, Justin Verlander pitched like classic Verlander, with 4 good performances out of 5. Which allowed the Astros to achieve their divisional goal once again. With no start bigger than his domination of the Mariners in Seattle with the season on the line.
Based on which pitcher played the best down the stretch, we believe Justin Verlander will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS this Saturday. Framber Valdez certainly deserves consideration, but he hasn't pitched as well as JV recently.
But if the Astros have interest in pitching Framber on three days rest during the series, starting him in Game 1 would be the way to go. He would then pitch Game 4 and Verlander could pitch Game 2 and Game 5 on normal rest.
If Dusty Baker opts to use 4 starters in the series, it will be interesting to see if he goes back to Jose Urquidy after his impressive performance against Arizona, or if JP France will get the nod. We assume Cristian Javier is a lock to pitch Game 3.
The other big question for the Astros involves the bullpen. Bryan Abreu has been fantastic this year, and Ryan Pressly has had some struggles. Would Baker change his closer for the postseason?
We doubt Dusty will make a change when the playoffs begin, but it will be fascinating to see how Abreu is deployed moving forward. And clearly Hector Neris is Dusty's “cleaner” of sorts, meaning when guys are on base, and you need someone to shut the door, Neris is the guy for the job.
Which brought up a fascinating discussion. Baker has said in the past that he likes to bring in relievers like Rafael Montero earlier in the game. His logic being if Montero gives up some runs, there's still plenty of time to come back and win. But will Baker operate the same way in the postseason, or is that just something he likes to do during a long regular season?
If a starter gets into trouble in the middle innings, we'd like to see Neris come in and limit the damage and ideally maintain the lead. Even it that means he won't be available to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning.
We just saw Montero come in for Javier in the 4th inning with 2 outs against Seattle, and we know what happened. He gave up some many runs that the game was effectively over after his appearance. And he didn't even record a single out.
Finally, we discuss if the Astros will carry a third catcher on the playoff roster. This would allow Dusty to have more options if he feels he needs to pinch hit when the situation dictates it.
Fearing an injury to his starting catcher, Dusty was reluctant to use Christian Vazquez as a DH in the playoffs until Game 6 of the World Series last year. By then, a third catcher was added to the roster after Yuli Gurriel injured his knee. Yainer Diaz could be in the same boat this season.
One thing we know for sure, the Twins are coming to Minute Maid on Saturday.
Don't miss the video above for the full discussion!
And be sure to watch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel.
How Astros just put league on notice with dominant pitching, clutch hitting
Jun 26, 2025, 7:08 pm
The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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