SHOW US THE LIE
As each game passes, here are the undeniable truths about the Houston Astros
Sep 5, 2023, 3:11 pm
Will Dusty Baker change his stance on Martin Maldonado? Composite Getty Image.
dusty madly
The NFL season starts this week and you know what that means here in Houston.
Are you ready for some … baseball!
The Astros are in the thick of the stickiest pennant race in MLB, a mad scramble in the American League West. At the moment, the Astros sit in a virtual tie with the Seattle Mariners for the top spot with the Texas Rangers only one game back.
The Astros 13-6, five-homer bulldozing of the Rangers Monday night in Arlington surely sent a chilling warning to other World Series hopefuls. The Astros are coming and they’re coming hard.
Things couldn’t have broke better Monday night. The Astros won. The Rangers lost. The Mariners lost. Jose Altuve and Mauricio Dubon walloped back-to-back homers – twice. Altuve and Alex Bregman had four hits each. Michael Brantley is back, seemingly without missing a beat. It would help if he were in the lineup. The Astros have Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander set for the next two against the Rangers. All is good is AstrosWorld.
The Nature Boy Ric Flair knows, if you want to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. And good luck beating the Astros the rest of the way.
Not only did the Astros send five balls over the outfield fence, they clinched the coveted (I kid) Silver Boot series against the Rangers for the seventh consecutive year. More important, should the Astros and Rangers tie at the end of the season, the Astros hold the tiebreaker.
The Astros have 23 games left in the 2023 regular season, including two more against the Rangers and three with the Mariners. Meanwhile the Rangers and Mariners will meet seven times to beat each other up. Knock yourselves out, literally, Rangers and Mariners.
After leaving Arlington, the Astros will sprint to the finish line with three games against the San Diego Padres, three vs. the Oakland A’s, six against the Kansas City Royals, three with the Baltimore Orioles, three showdown clashes with the Mariners, and they close out against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Astros opponents have a combined 389-459 record.
And now if you’ll permit me to beat my head against the wall.
As each game passes and the post-season draws closer, it should be clear to everybody (except one person), that Yanier Diaz must be the Astros everyday catcher regardless of who’s pitching. Let Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez throw a temper tantrum, too bad, Diaz is the Astros catcher of the future and the future started yesterday.
You don’t have to look any farther than Monday night’s biggest game of the year (until tonight’s biggest game of the year, etc.) to see the value Diaz brings to the lineup. It’s the little things and the big things.
Little thing: in the fifth inning with one out, the Astros trailing 3-0, Diaz hit a grounder that easily could have been an inning-ending, rally-squashing double play. Except Diaz has surprising speed for a catcher and beat the throw to first. That kept the Astros alive, and they scored three runs to tie the game. Another catcher, to be fair most catchers, would have been out at first by 10 feet.
Big thing: in the seventh inning Diaz blasted a 453-foot home run into the upper deck that made the score 11-5 and crushed any Rangers hope of a comeback.
Yanier Diaz is a superstar in waiting, and he may be the best hitting catcher in baseball already. In the super tight AL West, Diaz’s bat could be the difference between the Astros winning the AL West, settling for a wild card, or please no, finishing out of the money.
Now my head hurts.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.