This explains a lot
How Houston Astros flash glimpses of potential amid early season growing pains
Apr 4, 2025, 4:59 pm
Houston's starting pitching is leading the way! Composite Getty Image.
A week into the 2025 season, the Houston Astros are already giving fans plenty to talk about—and not all of it is bad. While the offense continues to sputter, particularly at the top of the order, the pitching staff is showing flashes of what could be a defining strength of the team. Let’s break down some early season observations following their latest series opening win against the Minnesota Twins.
Top of the lineup falling flat
The Astros’ biggest issue right now is at the plate. In the series opener against the Twins, the top three hitters in the lineup went a combined 0-for-12 with eight strikeouts. Jose Altuve, usually a stabilizing presence, struck out five times in that game, the first five-strikeout performance of his career. With Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman gone, there’s even less margin for error when stars like Yordan Alvarez go cold. His early-season slump has only magnified the absence of the team’s former offensive anchors.
Chas McCormick also looks completely out of sync at the plate, continuing a troubling trend from the opening series. Meanwhile, Cam Smith is struggling to stay competitive in at-bats, often falling behind in the count after watching fastballs go by for strikes.
One bright spot: Mauricio Dubón finally picked up his first hit of the season against the Twins, showing signs of life.
Hunter Brown is a dude
On the mound, however, Hunter Brown looks every bit like the breakout arm Houston needs. Despite a couple of mistakes—most notably a hanging breaking ball that Matt Wallner turned into a triple—Brown dominated overall. His two-seam fastball produced soft contact all day, with Twins hitters averaging just 62 mph exit velocity. Broken bats and routine grounders were the theme, and Brown even flashed some defensive flair with a slick bare-handed play to first.
Still, Brown can refine his pitch sequencing. Willi Castro jumped on a first-pitch changeup for a hit—an example of how Brown might be better served by establishing his elite velocity before mixing in off-speed.
Bullpen bright spots and smarter pitching
The bullpen continues to be a strength. Bryan King once again delivered a solid inning in relief, and Bryan Abreu made an important adjustment by leaning on his fastball early in his outing, throwing seven straight to start the inning. He has the velocity to overpower hitters and should continue trusting it.
New blood
Manager Joe Espada also made a smart call by starting Brendan Rodgers in cold conditions. Rodgers, with experience playing in Colorado’s thin air and chilly Aprils, responded with a key hit—albeit a bit of a lucky one, aided by a balk that brought the infield in. Still, his presence in the lineup could bring some much-needed consistency, and he deserves regular at-bats. His power was on display when he hit a clutch double, driving in Victor Caratini and extending Houston's lead against the Twins.
Other notes and areas to improve
- Christian Walker finally launched his first home run of the season after a rough game against the Giants. His struggles have largely come against curveballs, so it’s no surprise he found success against Joe Ryan, a pitcher who doesn’t feature one in his arsenal.
- Base stealing continues to be a glaring weakness defensively for the Astros. Opponents are taking extra bases far too easily—a problem that could become costly in close games if not addressed.
Big picture
Yes, the offense looks rough—and yes, there are real concerns about depth and consistency. But the early returns from the pitching staff, especially from Hunter Brown and the bullpen, offer reason for optimism. If the top of the lineup finds its rhythm and the Astros start cleaning up their defensive execution, this team still has the tools to win the AL West.
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The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!