CAN'T WAIT!
These 5 indisputable Astros upgrades point to something extraordinary in 2024
Feb 27, 2024, 4:02 pm
More plate appearances for Yordan Alvarez? Yes, please! Composite Getty Image.
Have you ever looked forward to something so much that you wish you could fall asleep and wake up on that day?
That’s how I feel about the upcoming Houston Astros season. The Astros are hosting the New York Yankees on Opening Day at Minute Maid Park on March 28. Astros v. Yankees! Does it get any better than that?
Let’s get this out of the way now. The Astros better beat the Yankees that day — otherwise they won’t be able to sell beer the rest of the season. Why? They will have lost the opener. (Credit: Highlights Magazine in my dentist’s office.)
Why am I so excited and optimistic about the Astros in 2024? Plenty of reasons …
Mostly it’s because there’s a new sheriff in town. Manager Joe Espada is not shy about taking the Astros on a different course. The names on the back of the jerseys will be the same as last year, but this is Espada’s team and they’ll be playing an exciting, whole different style.
It seems like Espada may have been a yes man standing next to former manager Dusty Baker the past few years, but things will change now. The Astros will be playing Espada ball.
First the Astros will run more, they’ll take extra bases more aggressively. Last year the Astros finished dead last in “extra bases taken percentage,” meaning the runner on first held up at second when the batter hit a single, or the runner didn’t advance more than two bases on a double. This year Astros baserunners will have their butts in gear. Coaches Gary Pettis and Dave Clark have the Astros practicing base running down in West Palm Beach like it’s back to Baseball 101.
Oh, and pitchers can’t pick their boutique catcher anymore. Last year divas Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez insisted that Martin Maldonado be behind the plate. Maldonado with his .191 batting average and horrible defensive performance. Astros management asked/told Baker that rookie Yanier Diaz needed to be the primary catcher, or at least play more. Baker dug in his heels and Maldonado caught practically every game the last couple of months.
And that’s why Maldonado is gone. And a big reason that Baker is gone, too. The question is, if Baker had made Diaz the starting catcher, would Baker be managing the Astros in 2024? The Maldonado thing really did become that contentious between Baker and Astros management, particularly general manager Dana Brown.
Espada has created a bit of a ruckus by announcing that he plans to bat slugger Yordan Alvarez second in the batting order. Some fans argue, no, the best power hitter belongs batting third or fourth. That’s how baseball has been played since Babe Ruth batted third and Lou Gehrig hit cleanup for the Yankees’ Murderers Row in the 1920s.
Espada’s current vision for the batting order has Jose Altuve leading off, followed by Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. I’d go to war in the American League West with that top of the order.
Alvarez batting second makes a whole lot of sense. Baseball is a numbers game today. The leadoff hitter gets 19 more plate appearances than the 2-hole hitter. And so on down the line. Each position gets about 19 more plate appearances than the next batter in the order.
You don’t think Yordan Alvarez getting 30-40 more plate appearances than if he hits fourth would help the Astros? Heck, the Astros missed the World Series by one stinking home game in the ALCS last year. The more Yordan, the more homers, the better.
It’s not like Espada has stumbled on the secret to the universe. According to MLB nerd boys, statistically the No. 2 hitter was the most productive bat in the lineup in 2023.
Mike Trout bats second for the Angels. Shohei Ohtani batted near the top of the lineup last year. Freddie Freeman bats second for the Dodgers. Ronald Acuna Jr., maybe the best all-around hitter in baseball, bats leadoff for the Braves. Remember when George Springer led off for the Astros? As Larry David would say, that worked out pretty, pretty, pretty good. It’s not like Altuve is a Punch and Judy slap hitter, either.
The Yankees’ Aaron Judge batted leadoff down the stretch in 2022, the year he broke the all-time American League single season home run record.
The Astros have sold more season tickets than any year before. The food has been upgraded on the concourse. The Astros will stretch doubles into triples. We have the best bullpen in the league. All the regulars are back from last year’s American League West championship team. And new manager Joe Espada has the right players on the field.
It’s going to be a fun season. If the season would just get here already.
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After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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