How smoke around latest Astros trade reports could signal something much bigger
PRESENTED BY COORS LIGHT
19 December 2023
It's been a quiet offseason on the free agent front for the Astros, and it appears there are legit reasons for that. Because the Astros had to create a new television network, their local TV revenue reportedly isn't what it used to be.
Even a team making crazy money like the Astros is going to feel the loss of $70 million.
And other teams across MLB are taking notice, by making calls to Astros GM Dana Brown about the availability of players like Alex Bregman and now Framber Valdez.
The team is currently slightly over the competitive balance tax according to several reports, so don't be surprised if the team sheds some salary before the end of the season to avoid being penalized.
To be fair, the Astros have only gone over the competitive balance tax once, so the TV money isn't the only reason for the lackluster offseason.
But trading Valdez would come as a bit of a shock. It's not what the Astros do. Just look at their history with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Correa. The club let them walk in free agency and collected a compensatory pick.
However, trading a player with club control like Valdez would certainly bring in a massive haul of prospects that could greatly restock the team's thin farm system.
On the horizon
When looking at the big picture, teams with large TV deals like the Dodgers and Yankees are going to have an even greater advantage over smaller market teams with collapsing local TV networks. Carriers like Direct TV have no problem ignoring stations like AT&TSportsSW, or the new Space City Home Network, but they're going to continue to pay for the Yankees Yes Network for example.
Meaning smaller market teams are going to be less likely to spend big money on free agents.
On the bright side, small market teams have done reasonably well in baseball. Just look at the Royals in 2015, the Rays contend practically every year, and recently the Diamondbacks went to the World Series. The Astros aren't a small market team per se, but look how they've dominated the AL over the Yankees in recent years.
So what's the solution and what does it mean for the 2024 Astros and beyond?
Don't miss the video above as we break it all down!
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How Astros can look to silver lining solutions coming out of the Break
Jul 14, 2025, 3:49 pm
After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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