How smoke around latest Astros trade reports could signal something much bigger
PRESENTED BY COORS LIGHT
19 December 2023
It's been a quiet offseason on the free agent front for the Astros, and it appears there are legit reasons for that. Because the Astros had to create a new television network, their local TV revenue reportedly isn't what it used to be.
Even a team making crazy money like the Astros is going to feel the loss of $70 million.
And other teams across MLB are taking notice, by making calls to Astros GM Dana Brown about the availability of players like Alex Bregman and now Framber Valdez.
The team is currently slightly over the competitive balance tax according to several reports, so don't be surprised if the team sheds some salary before the end of the season to avoid being penalized.
To be fair, the Astros have only gone over the competitive balance tax once, so the TV money isn't the only reason for the lackluster offseason.
But trading Valdez would come as a bit of a shock. It's not what the Astros do. Just look at their history with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Correa. The club let them walk in free agency and collected a compensatory pick.
However, trading a player with club control like Valdez would certainly bring in a massive haul of prospects that could greatly restock the team's thin farm system.
On the horizon
When looking at the big picture, teams with large TV deals like the Dodgers and Yankees are going to have an even greater advantage over smaller market teams with collapsing local TV networks. Carriers like Direct TV have no problem ignoring stations like AT&TSportsSW, or the new Space City Home Network, but they're going to continue to pay for the Yankees Yes Network for example.
Meaning smaller market teams are going to be less likely to spend big money on free agents.
On the bright side, small market teams have done reasonably well in baseball. Just look at the Royals in 2015, the Rays contend practically every year, and recently the Diamondbacks went to the World Series. The Astros aren't a small market team per se, but look how they've dominated the AL over the Yankees in recent years.
So what's the solution and what does it mean for the 2024 Astros and beyond?
Don't miss the video above as we break it all down!
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The case for adding a new voice to guide Astros through current struggles
May 8, 2025, 4:36 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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