THE PALLILOG
Here’s how roster pressures, pace of play will uniquely impact Astros outfield
Mar 2, 2023, 6:42 pm
Kyle Tucker is poised to have a big year. Composite image by Jack Brame.
It’s just one week of spring training games but so far, so GREAT for Major League Baseball’s pace of play rules changes. Of course there has been grousing from some over the pitch clock. 100% customer or player satisfaction is impossible. Most people are creatures of habit and for some change is more difficult than for others. Well, suck it up buttercups! In AAA last year the average game length dropped 25 minutes. So far in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues average game length has dropped by more than 20 minutes.
Time cops
For the Astros the apparent most significant adjustment to be made was for Luis Garcia with his elaborate windup banished to the archives. Garcia had zero problem adapting in his first outing. Kyle Tucker didn’t go on a rant but he’s the Astro who has expressed the most dissatisfaction about the timer to this point. One suspects he’ll be just fine. Maybe Tucker is a tad grumpy after losing his salary arbitration case. Think positively Tuck. 20-minute shorter average game lengths get you home sooner to your new fiance! Batters are allowed one timeout per plate appearance. That’s plenty. Stepping out of the box, adjusting batting gloves, rubbing more dirt on one’s hands, or contemplating the meaning of life after every or every other pitch is a tedious waste of time.
Perhaps a cranky Kyle will be extra locked in to start the season as he tries to strengthen his case for a contract extension worth a couple hundred million dollars. The last two years Tucker has been awful out of the gate. In 2021 he finished April with a woeful .181 batting average and a feeble .610 OPS. After going 0 for four on May 1, Tucker then played at an MVP level the rest of the season, batting .324 with a .996 OPS. Last year’s start wasn’t as miserable but was not better by leaps and bounds, with Tucker waking up May 1 with the average at .224 and OPS at .685. While his 2022 start wasn’t as bad as 2021, the rest of Tucker’s 2022 wasn’t nearly as good as the rest of his 2021 was. From May 1 of last season Tucker hit .263 with an .828 OPS which is plenty good but not 30 million dollars per season worth of production. Tucker is 26 and should be at about the peak of his physical talents. With merely a solid first month of the season at the plate, Tucker could have a monster 2023. He’ll be boosted by the maybe 10 hits he’ll pick up on balls he smashes that aren’t turned into outs by now banned defensive shifts.
Potential hidden bonus of snappier pace of play rules: maybe the wave gets washed away. Though somehow I doubt it.
Who's standing out so far this spring?
With time to kill and space to fill, the media inevitably overplays some spring training stories. Justin Dirden has six at bats so far this spring. Two of them resulted in home runs. He’s not the second coming of Kyle Tucker but see if this sounds familiar: Bats left, throws right. Plays right field but can slide over to center. Notable power. Turns 26 years old in 2023. Here’s a bit of a difference: Tucker’s signing bonus as the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft, four million dollars. Dirden’s bonus as an undrafted free agent in 2020, 20 thousand. Injuries, a transfer year, and COVID ending the 2020 college baseball season early held Dirden to a paltry total of 79 games played over five years. But in the time he did play at Southeast Missouri State, Dirden mashed. The Astros signed him and then Dirden mashed in the low minors. Last year he scuffled at AAA Sugar Land, but that was after earning a promotion for his mashing at AA Corpus Christi. If Dirden becomes a legit sleeper to make the Astros, one factor in his favor is the left-handed hitting. Chas McCormick bats right and last year was spectacular against left-handed pitching, awful vs. righties. Dirden offers a platoon possibility that Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon do not.
College baseball in H-town
Minute Maid Park this weekend sees its last game action before the Astros get home from spring training. It’s a typically strong field for the annual Shriners Children’s Classic. TCU, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech are all in the Top 25 and here this weekend. Rice is the lone unranked Texas school in the field. Louisville is in the top 25. The Cardinals and Michigan fill out the six team field.
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The Astros and the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend. Fun! And important. Both teams have been in results ruts for a while. The Astros have gone 9-16 over their last 25 games while the Yankees’ funk is longer extending, producing a 19-29 mess over their last 48 games. Despite the Seattle Mariners closing in, the Astros still lead the American League West. The Yankees’ hopes of again winning the AL East are fading toward the point of no return. They have tumbled six and a half games behind the Toronto Blue Jays and also lag three games behind the rampaging Boston Red Sox. Hence, the Yankees are under clearly more pressure than are the Astros this weekend. The pitching matchups in the first two games strongly favor the Astros. Friday night it’s Hunter Brown opposite rookie Cam Schlittler who makes his fifth big league appearance. Saturday afternoon it’s Framber Valdez versus Luis Gil, who was the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year, but missed the first four months of this season with a lat injury. Gil made his 2025 debut Sunday, and was terrible. The Astros’ quality rotation depth beyond Brown and Valdez is non-existent at this point. Their Sunday starter will be a lesser starter than the Yankees’ Max Fried. Of course, in one game you never know.
The Astros have thoroughly owned the Yankees in their most meaningful meetings over the last decade. In 2015 the ousted the Yankees in a one-game Wild Card matchup. Then came the real soul-crushers with the Astros vanquishing the Yanks in the 2017, 2019, and 2022 American League Championship Series, with it getting easier for the Astros as time went on. The 2017 series went the maximum seven games, 2019 took six, 2022 was a four-game Astros’ sweep. The regular season has been a different matter. The Yankees have beaten the Astros in 11 of 14 games over the last two years. Last season the Yankees walloped the Astros six wins to one. They only play six times this regular season: the three in New York this weekend then three at Daikin Park in early September.
Here comes the Judge
While the Astros (and their fans) endure a seemingly never-ending wait for Yordan Alvarez’s return to the lineup, the Yankees have Aaron Judge back after a 10-day stint on the injured list. Judge carries the burden of soft career postseason stats (though he has 16 home runs in just 58 postseason games and his career playoffs OPS is just 21 points lower than Alex Bregman’s), but this is a legendary player. Judge’s career OPS stands at a whopping 1.024. That number will drop during the decline years remaining in his career, but here’s the list of all time Major Leaguers higher than 1.024: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Jimmie Foxx. Those are arguably the four greatest offensive players in MLB history, plus Foxx who probably rates in the top 20. If he holds up the rest of the season, Judge is a cinch for his third AL Most Valuable Player Award in four years.
Turn back the clock
Should they choose to check it out, the Astros can watch the Yankees’ Old-Timers' Game Saturday. Though most of the greatest of Yankee legends have died, there will still be a fabulous cast of alumni who soak up cheers during introductions, with many of them then taking part in a two or three inning game. The Yankees are by far the most storied franchise in MLB. The Astros have plenty of history and beloved players over multiple generations to copy the concept, and have their own Old-Timers' Day at Daikin Park. Would it not be a blast to see Roger Clemens pitch to Craig Biggio? Roy Oswalt to Lance Berkman? As I said during our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast this week, I wouldn’t bet against 78 (as of Friday)-year-old Jose Cruz squaring up a ball for a line drive. Make Astros’ Old Timers’ Day happen in 2026 Jim Crane!
Angry birds
The best team in the American League is Toronto, best for now anyway. The Blue Jays have been the best over the last two months-plus. The Jays woke up May 29 at 27-28. Since then they are 41-20. Over that time frame the Astros have the third-best record in the AL behind the Jays and Red Sox. A notable part of Toronto’s success the past month is Joey Loperfido. He didn’t make the Jays’ big league squad coming out of spring training, and wasn’t called up until July 6. Over 72 at bats since getting back to “The Show” Loperfido is batting .389 with a .978 OPS. Reminder that Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 at bats with the Astros. Full credit to Joey for a magnificent month. Still, there is no reason for the Astros to be wracked with regret for having included Loperfido in last season’s trade for Yusei Kikuchi.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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