THE PALLILOG
Here’s how roster pressures, pace of play will uniquely impact Astros outfield
Mar 2, 2023, 6:42 pm
Kyle Tucker is poised to have a big year. Composite image by Jack Brame.
It’s just one week of spring training games but so far, so GREAT for Major League Baseball’s pace of play rules changes. Of course there has been grousing from some over the pitch clock. 100% customer or player satisfaction is impossible. Most people are creatures of habit and for some change is more difficult than for others. Well, suck it up buttercups! In AAA last year the average game length dropped 25 minutes. So far in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues average game length has dropped by more than 20 minutes.
Time cops
For the Astros the apparent most significant adjustment to be made was for Luis Garcia with his elaborate windup banished to the archives. Garcia had zero problem adapting in his first outing. Kyle Tucker didn’t go on a rant but he’s the Astro who has expressed the most dissatisfaction about the timer to this point. One suspects he’ll be just fine. Maybe Tucker is a tad grumpy after losing his salary arbitration case. Think positively Tuck. 20-minute shorter average game lengths get you home sooner to your new fiance! Batters are allowed one timeout per plate appearance. That’s plenty. Stepping out of the box, adjusting batting gloves, rubbing more dirt on one’s hands, or contemplating the meaning of life after every or every other pitch is a tedious waste of time.
Perhaps a cranky Kyle will be extra locked in to start the season as he tries to strengthen his case for a contract extension worth a couple hundred million dollars. The last two years Tucker has been awful out of the gate. In 2021 he finished April with a woeful .181 batting average and a feeble .610 OPS. After going 0 for four on May 1, Tucker then played at an MVP level the rest of the season, batting .324 with a .996 OPS. Last year’s start wasn’t as miserable but was not better by leaps and bounds, with Tucker waking up May 1 with the average at .224 and OPS at .685. While his 2022 start wasn’t as bad as 2021, the rest of Tucker’s 2022 wasn’t nearly as good as the rest of his 2021 was. From May 1 of last season Tucker hit .263 with an .828 OPS which is plenty good but not 30 million dollars per season worth of production. Tucker is 26 and should be at about the peak of his physical talents. With merely a solid first month of the season at the plate, Tucker could have a monster 2023. He’ll be boosted by the maybe 10 hits he’ll pick up on balls he smashes that aren’t turned into outs by now banned defensive shifts.
Potential hidden bonus of snappier pace of play rules: maybe the wave gets washed away. Though somehow I doubt it.
Who's standing out so far this spring?
With time to kill and space to fill, the media inevitably overplays some spring training stories. Justin Dirden has six at bats so far this spring. Two of them resulted in home runs. He’s not the second coming of Kyle Tucker but see if this sounds familiar: Bats left, throws right. Plays right field but can slide over to center. Notable power. Turns 26 years old in 2023. Here’s a bit of a difference: Tucker’s signing bonus as the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft, four million dollars. Dirden’s bonus as an undrafted free agent in 2020, 20 thousand. Injuries, a transfer year, and COVID ending the 2020 college baseball season early held Dirden to a paltry total of 79 games played over five years. But in the time he did play at Southeast Missouri State, Dirden mashed. The Astros signed him and then Dirden mashed in the low minors. Last year he scuffled at AAA Sugar Land, but that was after earning a promotion for his mashing at AA Corpus Christi. If Dirden becomes a legit sleeper to make the Astros, one factor in his favor is the left-handed hitting. Chas McCormick bats right and last year was spectacular against left-handed pitching, awful vs. righties. Dirden offers a platoon possibility that Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon do not.
College baseball in H-town
Minute Maid Park this weekend sees its last game action before the Astros get home from spring training. It’s a typically strong field for the annual Shriners Children’s Classic. TCU, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech are all in the Top 25 and here this weekend. Rice is the lone unranked Texas school in the field. Louisville is in the top 25. The Cardinals and Michigan fill out the six team field.
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Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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