THE PALLILOG
How these 4 Astros season-defining factors are setting the stage for major late-season drama
Jul 13, 2023, 11:50 am
The Astros could use a lift from Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena. Composite Getty Image.
Here's how to solve Houston Astros trade deadline quandary
For the first season since 2016 the Astros resume play after the All-Star break with there being serious doubt as to whether they make the playoffs. Clearly the Astros can win the American League West for the sixth consecutive full-length season. Once six and a half games back of the Texas Rangers, the deficit is a mere two with the Rangers having staggered into the break losing 11 of their last 16 games. Going back longer over their last 31 games, the Rangers caved to 12-19. It’s not as if the Astros surged. They went just 14-17 over their last 31 games, finishing by dropping three of four at home to the Mariners.
Seattle could be in this also, especially if it can add an impact bat by the August 1 trade deadline. The Mariners are just four games back of the Astros, six back of the Rangers, but have better looking pitching than both of them. 2015 is the only other season the Astros and Rangers were both strong contenders in the AL West. In 2015 the Rangers held off the Astros by two games with the Astros getting a Wild Card. In 2016 the Rangers ran away with it as the Astros missed the postseason. Since then it's been all losing seasons for the Rangers while the Astros have had their dynastic run. Runs end. Whether for the Astros that means in 2023 plays out over the next two and a half months.
Then there’s the Wild Card picture. At the break the Astros would have been the AL’s third and last Wild Card, since they lose the tiebreaker to the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re just one game ahead of the Yankees, two ahead of the Red Sox, and four ahead of the Mariners who lead the Astros 5-2 in the season series. From August 3 through September 3 the Astros play 29 games, 14 of them against the Yankees or Red Sox. There are also six games ahead with the Orioles who are five games ahead of the Astros. The AL East is by far the best division in Major League Baseball. There is less intra-divisional play this year than ever before (13 games vs. each division opponent down from 19), so while AL East cannibalism should help the Astros, it’s not as big an aid as it would have been in prior years. The Astros simply have to win their share overall. It will be a compelling remaining 71 games.
Path to the playoffs
The Astros’ outlook largely hinges on a couple of factors. On offense, getting back Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve and having them stay healthy is vital to an offense that without them simply isn’t that good. Alvarez is an irreplaceable monster when batting third in the lineup. Altuve is an elite leadoff hitter in contrast to Mauricio Dubon who for all he has contributed is a poor leadoff hitter. Maybe Dusty Baker awakens and cuts into Martin Maldonado’s playing time. Maybe Jeremy Pena picks it up in what has basically been a no-improvement sophomore season. Maybe Alex Bregman starts hitting like someone worth remotely close to the 28 and a half million dollars he's pulling down this season and again next. Catching Yainer Diaz a greater percentage of the time shouldn’t even require a decision. There is not much reason to expect Pena and Bregman to have fabulous finishes. If the Astro offense is to be grade-A or close the rest of the way, it needs Alvarez and Altuve.
Then there’s the pitching, especially the starting pitching. The Astros ended May with the staff earned average at 3.25. From June 1 on it’s 4.27. If it’s not better than 4.27 the rest of the way, the Astros season probably ends October 1. Framber Valdez has been fantastic and gives no cause to believe he’ll wilt. Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown have both already wilted. Javier’s career-high innings total of 2022 and a first half pace to top it in 2023 probably caught up to him. Javier has been clobbered over his last five starts to the mess of a 9.14 earned run average. Brown, on pace to shatter his career innings high, sagged to a 5.70 ERA over his last seven starts. At least one better catch a second wind.
J.P. France has been a hugely welcome surprise, but is within about a month of topping his previous season innings high. Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco simply aren’t good enough. Jose Urquidy’s expected August return could help. Could. Urquidy’s ERA was 3.92 last year, 5.20 this year before his arm injury knocked him out. Urquidy’s return isn’t like the Astros’ adding Justin Verlander in 2017, Gerrit Cole in 2018, or Zach Greinke in 2019.
Trade deadline looming
As for the trade deadline now under three weeks away, we’ll see if rookie General Manager Dana Brown adds a quality starting pitcher (the clear top priority now) and/or an impact bat. Brown is hamstrung by the Astros’ weak farm system. Many contenders (Rangers, Rays, Orioles, Dodgers, Diamondbacks…there are more but you get the idea) have vastly superior prospect talent to deal and could do so without leaving their cupboards bare. If fantasizing about addressing both pitcher and hitter in an all-timer move by having the buckling Angels put Shohei Ohtani up for bid, there is essentially no way the Astros can make a competitive offer even if willing to gut their already relatively fallow pipeline.
Drew Gilbert is the lone Astros’ minor leaguer considered a top 100 prospect. Corey Julks and Jake Meyers have negligible trade value. If the Cubs sell, pitcher Marcus Stroman is probably beyond the Astros’ grasp. Probably the same with the White Sox’ Lucas Giolito. One hitter who would make oodles of sense in a Cubs’ sell-off is Cody Bellinger (as many Astros’ fans shriek in horror!) who is having a strong bounce back season on a one-year contract. Bellinger is a left-handed bat who would be an excellent alternative to Jose Abreu at first base, and is also an outstanding outfielder.
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As the Houston Astros continue to navigate a season riddled with injuries and inconsistencies, the question looms larger than ever: can they keep their heads above water? With a barrage of pitching injuries threatening to derail their season, the Astros are finding themselves in a position where every decision matters more than ever.
The recent setbacks to the pitching staff (Hayden Wesnieski, Ronel Blanco) have placed even more pressure on the club. Lance McCullers, whose performances have been inconsistent, is now squarely in the spotlight. The Astros will need him to step up and shoulder a larger portion of the load. At the same time, the bullpen, which has been a bright spot so far, must continue its elite play to keep the team afloat. In particular, Houston can't afford to make mistakes in its decision-making, whether in the lineup or on the field.
Take, for example, the decision to give Chas McCormick a second start after his costly mistakes in Game 1 against the Rays. McCormick’s two pick-offs in that game showed he's lacking focus, yet he was given another chance to start Game 2. Houston needs to be making the right calls on the field, and this was a moment where the manager’s trust in McCormick might have been better placed elsewhere, considering his lack of success in the series.
On the offensive side, the Astros’ struggles have been just as apparent. Jose Altuve, a cornerstone of the franchise, has been attempting to bunt while hitting in the 3-hole. It’s a strategy that just doesn’t make sense. With the Astros needing to produce runs, Altuve's role is to drive them in, not waste strikes with ill-timed bunt attempts.
Is Houston's roster poorly constructed or just unlucky?
Given the pitching woes and offensive troubles, some are beginning to question whether the Astros’ roster is poorly constructed, or if it’s simply been an unfortunate series of events. The bad luck with pitching injuries is undeniable, but the offense tells a different story—particularly when it comes to the lineup’s balance.
One glaring issue is the team’s heavy reliance on right-handed hitters. With players like Christian Walker struggling at the plate, it’s hard to overlook the potential misstep in roster construction. Walker’s performance this season has been abysmal, and it’s fair to wonder if the Astros would have been better off investing in a more flexible first-base platoon. Players like Jon Singleton, Victor Caratini, Zach Dezenzo, Yainer Diaz, and even Mauricio Dubon could have filled in at first base, providing much-needed depth at a fraction of the cost. At this point, they couldn’t have done worse than Walker, who has posted a paltry .199 batting average, .270 OBP, and .607 OPS on the season.
In comparison, Walker’s numbers this season are worse than Jose Abreu’s 2023 campaign with Houston (.237 batting avg, .296 OBP, .680 OPS). Walker is a player known for slow starts, but nothing quite as severe as what we’ve seen in 2025. His struggles are reminiscent of a disastrous start to the 2022 season that saw him fail to find his rhythm until much later in the year, but even then, his slugging percentage was significantly better than what we’re seeing now.
Would a return of “career Yordan Alvarez” fix Houston’s offensive woes?
Amid the offensive malaise, the return of a fully healthy Yordan Alvarez could certainly provide a much-needed spark. If Alvarez were to return to his “career” form, with a healthy pitching staff, an intact bullpen, and a potential resurgence from key hitters, the Astros could see a drastic improvement in their fortunes. However, this is all contingent on a lot of “ifs,” and there’s no guarantee that a turnaround is on the horizon.
Observations and further concerns
As if the struggles on offense and pitching weren’t enough, the Astros’ defense has also been plagued by lapses in fundamentals. One of the more puzzling trends this season has been the number of stolen bases allowed, especially at third base. If the Astros continue to give up steals at this rate, it will be difficult for the pitchers to recover, especially if they are walking batters and putting runners in scoring position with alarming frequency.
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