THE PALLILOG
How these 4 Astros season-defining factors are setting the stage for major late-season drama
Jul 13, 2023, 11:50 am
The Astros could use a lift from Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena. Composite Getty Image.
Here's how to solve Houston Astros trade deadline quandary
For the first season since 2016 the Astros resume play after the All-Star break with there being serious doubt as to whether they make the playoffs. Clearly the Astros can win the American League West for the sixth consecutive full-length season. Once six and a half games back of the Texas Rangers, the deficit is a mere two with the Rangers having staggered into the break losing 11 of their last 16 games. Going back longer over their last 31 games, the Rangers caved to 12-19. It’s not as if the Astros surged. They went just 14-17 over their last 31 games, finishing by dropping three of four at home to the Mariners.
Seattle could be in this also, especially if it can add an impact bat by the August 1 trade deadline. The Mariners are just four games back of the Astros, six back of the Rangers, but have better looking pitching than both of them. 2015 is the only other season the Astros and Rangers were both strong contenders in the AL West. In 2015 the Rangers held off the Astros by two games with the Astros getting a Wild Card. In 2016 the Rangers ran away with it as the Astros missed the postseason. Since then it's been all losing seasons for the Rangers while the Astros have had their dynastic run. Runs end. Whether for the Astros that means in 2023 plays out over the next two and a half months.
Then there’s the Wild Card picture. At the break the Astros would have been the AL’s third and last Wild Card, since they lose the tiebreaker to the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re just one game ahead of the Yankees, two ahead of the Red Sox, and four ahead of the Mariners who lead the Astros 5-2 in the season series. From August 3 through September 3 the Astros play 29 games, 14 of them against the Yankees or Red Sox. There are also six games ahead with the Orioles who are five games ahead of the Astros. The AL East is by far the best division in Major League Baseball. There is less intra-divisional play this year than ever before (13 games vs. each division opponent down from 19), so while AL East cannibalism should help the Astros, it’s not as big an aid as it would have been in prior years. The Astros simply have to win their share overall. It will be a compelling remaining 71 games.
Path to the playoffs
The Astros’ outlook largely hinges on a couple of factors. On offense, getting back Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve and having them stay healthy is vital to an offense that without them simply isn’t that good. Alvarez is an irreplaceable monster when batting third in the lineup. Altuve is an elite leadoff hitter in contrast to Mauricio Dubon who for all he has contributed is a poor leadoff hitter. Maybe Dusty Baker awakens and cuts into Martin Maldonado’s playing time. Maybe Jeremy Pena picks it up in what has basically been a no-improvement sophomore season. Maybe Alex Bregman starts hitting like someone worth remotely close to the 28 and a half million dollars he's pulling down this season and again next. Catching Yainer Diaz a greater percentage of the time shouldn’t even require a decision. There is not much reason to expect Pena and Bregman to have fabulous finishes. If the Astro offense is to be grade-A or close the rest of the way, it needs Alvarez and Altuve.
Then there’s the pitching, especially the starting pitching. The Astros ended May with the staff earned average at 3.25. From June 1 on it’s 4.27. If it’s not better than 4.27 the rest of the way, the Astros season probably ends October 1. Framber Valdez has been fantastic and gives no cause to believe he’ll wilt. Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown have both already wilted. Javier’s career-high innings total of 2022 and a first half pace to top it in 2023 probably caught up to him. Javier has been clobbered over his last five starts to the mess of a 9.14 earned run average. Brown, on pace to shatter his career innings high, sagged to a 5.70 ERA over his last seven starts. At least one better catch a second wind.
J.P. France has been a hugely welcome surprise, but is within about a month of topping his previous season innings high. Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco simply aren’t good enough. Jose Urquidy’s expected August return could help. Could. Urquidy’s ERA was 3.92 last year, 5.20 this year before his arm injury knocked him out. Urquidy’s return isn’t like the Astros’ adding Justin Verlander in 2017, Gerrit Cole in 2018, or Zach Greinke in 2019.
Trade deadline looming
As for the trade deadline now under three weeks away, we’ll see if rookie General Manager Dana Brown adds a quality starting pitcher (the clear top priority now) and/or an impact bat. Brown is hamstrung by the Astros’ weak farm system. Many contenders (Rangers, Rays, Orioles, Dodgers, Diamondbacks…there are more but you get the idea) have vastly superior prospect talent to deal and could do so without leaving their cupboards bare. If fantasizing about addressing both pitcher and hitter in an all-timer move by having the buckling Angels put Shohei Ohtani up for bid, there is essentially no way the Astros can make a competitive offer even if willing to gut their already relatively fallow pipeline.
Drew Gilbert is the lone Astros’ minor leaguer considered a top 100 prospect. Corey Julks and Jake Meyers have negligible trade value. If the Cubs sell, pitcher Marcus Stroman is probably beyond the Astros’ grasp. Probably the same with the White Sox’ Lucas Giolito. One hitter who would make oodles of sense in a Cubs’ sell-off is Cody Bellinger (as many Astros’ fans shriek in horror!) who is having a strong bounce back season on a one-year contract. Bellinger is a left-handed bat who would be an excellent alternative to Jose Abreu at first base, and is also an outstanding outfielder.
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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets such as:
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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