New Astros opportunities, challenges in wake of Kikuchi departure and unclear Bregman market
STONE COLD 'STROS
25 November
STONE COLD 'STROS
As a new week of free agency begins, we're finally seeing some activity that directly impacts the Astros. Former Houston pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.
The club had interest in bringing Kikuchi back, but not at this cost. With Kikuchi agreeing to sign with the Angles, it appears money was a much bigger priority than winning, and geography likely played a role as well.
Since Kikuchi is no longer an option, are the Astros still in the market for starting pitching? GM Dana Brown recently said the team is in contact with Justin Verlander, but no progress has been made in negotiations.
It's fair to assume that Verlander will get an offer significantly smaller than Kikuchi's, but I wouldn't count on him giving the Astros any type of discount. Which is why I don't expect the club to bring JV back and pay him market value.
That is, unless owner Jim Crane steps in and negotiates a deal. Either way, we shouldn't count on the Astros doing anything until they've made a final decision on Bregman.
Speaking of which, there's a good chance we don't see any movement with Breggy until the top free agent on the market, Juan Soto, makes his decision.
Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the prized free agent on the market, and he agreed to his deal with the Dodgers on Dec. 9. So we still have some time to go if Soto's timeline is similar to Ohtani's.
Once Soto makes his decision, we should expect things to start moving with Bregman. Brown has made it clear that Breggy is the team's top priority, but we're all wondering if the Astros will be willing to commit enough years and money to keep him in an Astros uniform.
Early reports are telling us the 'Stros haven't met Bregman's price. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, “The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.”
By that math, about $44 million is keeping the two sides from striking a deal. We'll see if that changes as the free agent market continues to evolve.
The outfield conundrum
Based on Brown's comments to The Athletic about the outfield, it's becoming clear that Jake Meyers' role will be different from last season.
“If there's an opportunity for a left-handed bat, we'll make that move. And then adjust with McCormick and whoever we sign or Meyers,” said Brown.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Meyers. This statement actually gives us comfort, knowing that the Astros don't view Meyers as a solution moving forward. This also leads us to believe that they don't anticipate Yordan Alvarez being a regular starter in left field with his injury concerns.
On the farm
The perfect solution would be for the Astros' top prospect Jacob Melton to earn the role in center field. He's left-handed, so he checks that box. And if he can't outperform Meyers from an offensive standpoint in the near future, he clearly isn't the answer. But based on Brown's outlook for Melton, even if he has a good spring, he's expected to begin the season with Sugar Land.
Don't miss the video above as we react to the Kikuchi contract, examine what the future could hold for Bregman and Verlander in 2025, and much more!
For Astros’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcasts!Episodes drop on Mondays and bonus episodes are released on Wednesdays when the news cycle dictates.
As we wait to see where Alex Bregman will land this offseason, we are seeing some movement begin to take place when it comes to Scott Boras clients.
Blake Snell agreed to a 5-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers recently, which sent shockwaves across baseball. Many are wondering if the price of poker has gone up, or if this is just the Dodgers overpaying because than can afford to do so.
However, this contract impacts the Astros on two levels. One, it's more money than the Astros have ever offered a player. And two, what this contract means for Framber Valdez, who is in the last year of his deal.
In Framber's case, there's no way the Astros are going to approach an offer of this size for Valdez. They reportedly haven't even offered Bregman a deal of this nature.
The 'Stros have reportedly offered Bregman 6-years, $156 million. About $44 million less than he's looking for. Which brings up a larger concern. The Astros contract offers never seem to adjust with inflation.
Just look at these reported offers and contracts the Astros have been tied to over the last several years.
Offer: Carlos Correa 5-years, $160 million. Rejected.
Contract with Toronto: George Springer, 6-years, $150 million.
Contract with Houston: Jose Altuve 7-years, $163.5 million.
Offer: Bregman 6-years, $156 million. Pending.
Contract with Houston: Yordan Alvarez 6-years, $115 million.
It's like negotiating in a land where time stands still. Everything seems to go up in price, except for contract offers from Jim Crane. To be fair, this tactic has worked well, but for how much longer?
If the Astros do miss out on Breggy, there are some reports connecting Houston to Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander. ESPN's David Schoenfield projects Santander to land a massive three-year, $69 million deal with Houston.
Seems like quite the bargain for a player with more offensive thump than Bregman.
On the pitching front, Nick Villano of FanSided predicts the Astros will sign former Guardians ace Shane Bieber, who is recovering from season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Considering the Astros already have several pitchers returning from injury, this move does not make a ton of sense.
Salary cap coming to MLB?
Because of the Dodgers' aggressive approach to free agency over the last few years, many are wondering if a salary cap will be necessary moving forward.
Be sure to watch the video above as we discuss the likelihood of a salary cap in baseball, if it would benefit the Astros, and weigh in on the Astros approach to free agency this offseason.