New Astros opportunities, challenges in wake of Kikuchi departure and unclear Bregman market
STONE COLD 'STROS
25 November 2024
Unlocking Yusei Kikuchi could come back to haunt the Astros. Composite Getty Image.
As a new week of free agency begins, we're finally seeing some activity that directly impacts the Astros. Former Houston pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.
The club had interest in bringing Kikuchi back, but not at this cost. With Kikuchi agreeing to sign with the Angles, it appears money was a much bigger priority than winning, and geography likely played a role as well.
Since Kikuchi is no longer an option, are the Astros still in the market for starting pitching? GM Dana Brown recently said the team is in contact with Justin Verlander, but no progress has been made in negotiations.
It's fair to assume that Verlander will get an offer significantly smaller than Kikuchi's, but I wouldn't count on him giving the Astros any type of discount. Which is why I don't expect the club to bring JV back and pay him market value.
That is, unless owner Jim Crane steps in and negotiates a deal. Either way, we shouldn't count on the Astros doing anything until they've made a final decision on Bregman.
Speaking of which, there's a good chance we don't see any movement with Breggy until the top free agent on the market, Juan Soto, makes his decision.
Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the prized free agent on the market, and he agreed to his deal with the Dodgers on Dec. 9. So we still have some time to go if Soto's timeline is similar to Ohtani's.
Once Soto makes his decision, we should expect things to start moving with Bregman. Brown has made it clear that Breggy is the team's top priority, but we're all wondering if the Astros will be willing to commit enough years and money to keep him in an Astros uniform.
Early reports are telling us the 'Stros haven't met Bregman's price. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, “The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.”
By that math, about $44 million is keeping the two sides from striking a deal. We'll see if that changes as the free agent market continues to evolve.
The outfield conundrum
Based on Brown's comments to The Athletic about the outfield, it's becoming clear that Jake Meyers' role will be different from last season.
“If there's an opportunity for a left-handed bat, we'll make that move. And then adjust with McCormick and whoever we sign or Meyers,” said Brown.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Meyers. This statement actually gives us comfort, knowing that the Astros don't view Meyers as a solution moving forward. This also leads us to believe that they don't anticipate Yordan Alvarez being a regular starter in left field with his injury concerns.
On the farm
The perfect solution would be for the Astros' top prospect Jacob Melton to earn the role in center field. He's left-handed, so he checks that box. And if he can't outperform Meyers from an offensive standpoint in the near future, he clearly isn't the answer. But based on Brown's outlook for Melton, even if he has a good spring, he's expected to begin the season with Sugar Land.
Don't miss the video above as we react to the Kikuchi contract, examine what the future could hold for Bregman and Verlander in 2025, and much more!
For Astros’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcasts!Episodes drop on Mondays and bonus episodes are released on Wednesdays when the news cycle dictates.
How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this time could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.
The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,
OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.
Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.
Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.
Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.
What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.
Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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