New Astros opportunities, challenges in wake of Kikuchi departure and unclear Bregman market
STONE COLD 'STROS
25 November 2024
Unlocking Yusei Kikuchi could come back to haunt the Astros. Composite Getty Image.
As a new week of free agency begins, we're finally seeing some activity that directly impacts the Astros. Former Houston pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.
The club had interest in bringing Kikuchi back, but not at this cost. With Kikuchi agreeing to sign with the Angles, it appears money was a much bigger priority than winning, and geography likely played a role as well.
Since Kikuchi is no longer an option, are the Astros still in the market for starting pitching? GM Dana Brown recently said the team is in contact with Justin Verlander, but no progress has been made in negotiations.
It's fair to assume that Verlander will get an offer significantly smaller than Kikuchi's, but I wouldn't count on him giving the Astros any type of discount. Which is why I don't expect the club to bring JV back and pay him market value.
That is, unless owner Jim Crane steps in and negotiates a deal. Either way, we shouldn't count on the Astros doing anything until they've made a final decision on Bregman.
Speaking of which, there's a good chance we don't see any movement with Breggy until the top free agent on the market, Juan Soto, makes his decision.
Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the prized free agent on the market, and he agreed to his deal with the Dodgers on Dec. 9. So we still have some time to go if Soto's timeline is similar to Ohtani's.
Once Soto makes his decision, we should expect things to start moving with Bregman. Brown has made it clear that Breggy is the team's top priority, but we're all wondering if the Astros will be willing to commit enough years and money to keep him in an Astros uniform.
Early reports are telling us the 'Stros haven't met Bregman's price. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, “The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.”
By that math, about $44 million is keeping the two sides from striking a deal. We'll see if that changes as the free agent market continues to evolve.
The outfield conundrum
Based on Brown's comments to The Athletic about the outfield, it's becoming clear that Jake Meyers' role will be different from last season.
“If there's an opportunity for a left-handed bat, we'll make that move. And then adjust with McCormick and whoever we sign or Meyers,” said Brown.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Meyers. This statement actually gives us comfort, knowing that the Astros don't view Meyers as a solution moving forward. This also leads us to believe that they don't anticipate Yordan Alvarez being a regular starter in left field with his injury concerns.
On the farm
The perfect solution would be for the Astros' top prospect Jacob Melton to earn the role in center field. He's left-handed, so he checks that box. And if he can't outperform Meyers from an offensive standpoint in the near future, he clearly isn't the answer. But based on Brown's outlook for Melton, even if he has a good spring, he's expected to begin the season with Sugar Land.
Don't miss the video above as we react to the Kikuchi contract, examine what the future could hold for Bregman and Verlander in 2025, and much more!
For Astros’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcasts! Episodes drop on Mondays and bonus episodes are released on Wednesdays when the news cycle dictates.
- It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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