New Astros opportunities, challenges in wake of Kikuchi departure and unclear Bregman market
STONE COLD 'STROS
25 November 2024
STONE COLD 'STROS
As a new week of free agency begins, we're finally seeing some activity that directly impacts the Astros. Former Houston pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.
The club had interest in bringing Kikuchi back, but not at this cost. With Kikuchi agreeing to sign with the Angles, it appears money was a much bigger priority than winning, and geography likely played a role as well.
Since Kikuchi is no longer an option, are the Astros still in the market for starting pitching? GM Dana Brown recently said the team is in contact with Justin Verlander, but no progress has been made in negotiations.
It's fair to assume that Verlander will get an offer significantly smaller than Kikuchi's, but I wouldn't count on him giving the Astros any type of discount. Which is why I don't expect the club to bring JV back and pay him market value.
That is, unless owner Jim Crane steps in and negotiates a deal. Either way, we shouldn't count on the Astros doing anything until they've made a final decision on Bregman.
Speaking of which, there's a good chance we don't see any movement with Breggy until the top free agent on the market, Juan Soto, makes his decision.
Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the prized free agent on the market, and he agreed to his deal with the Dodgers on Dec. 9. So we still have some time to go if Soto's timeline is similar to Ohtani's.
Once Soto makes his decision, we should expect things to start moving with Bregman. Brown has made it clear that Breggy is the team's top priority, but we're all wondering if the Astros will be willing to commit enough years and money to keep him in an Astros uniform.
Early reports are telling us the 'Stros haven't met Bregman's price. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, “The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.”
By that math, about $44 million is keeping the two sides from striking a deal. We'll see if that changes as the free agent market continues to evolve.
The outfield conundrum
Based on Brown's comments to The Athletic about the outfield, it's becoming clear that Jake Meyers' role will be different from last season.
“If there's an opportunity for a left-handed bat, we'll make that move. And then adjust with McCormick and whoever we sign or Meyers,” said Brown.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Meyers. This statement actually gives us comfort, knowing that the Astros don't view Meyers as a solution moving forward. This also leads us to believe that they don't anticipate Yordan Alvarez being a regular starter in left field with his injury concerns.
On the farm
The perfect solution would be for the Astros' top prospect Jacob Melton to earn the role in center field. He's left-handed, so he checks that box. And if he can't outperform Meyers from an offensive standpoint in the near future, he clearly isn't the answer. But based on Brown's outlook for Melton, even if he has a good spring, he's expected to begin the season with Sugar Land.
Don't miss the video above as we react to the Kikuchi contract, examine what the future could hold for Bregman and Verlander in 2025, and much more!
For Astros’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcasts!Episodes drop on Mondays and bonus episodes are released on Wednesdays when the news cycle dictates.
The Houston Astros enter the 2025 season with plenty of question marks, but their starting rotation may quietly be one of the team’s biggest strengths. Despite finishing sixth in team ERA last season, Houston’s pitching staff isn’t getting much love from national outlets. MLB’s official rankings of the top 10 rotations didn’t include the Astros, though division rival Texas claimed the No. 9 spot.
But Houston’s rotation is in a far better position than it was this time last year. Injuries to Justin Verlander and JP France complicated things in spring training, and Ronel Blanco was still an unproven starter. This season, the Astros' rotation is already set, with reinforcements on the way. Lance McCullers Jr. could be ready to return in the coming weeks, and Luis Garcia may not be far behind him.
While the national media focuses on the losses of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, they aren’t paying as much attention to key additions like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker. Former MLB GM Jim Bowden predicts a third-place finish for Houston, but the roster still has plenty of firepower.
The Astros’ talent is undeniable. Baseball America ranked eight Astros players in its top 100 list for 2025, tied with the Dodgers for second-most in baseball, trailing only the Braves. MLB Network also placed eight Astros in its top 100, tied for the most with the Mets. Despite these rankings, the Astros continue to fly under the radar.
One of the biggest questions heading into Opening Day is whether Cam Smith or Zach Dezenzo will make the roster. Manager Joe Espada may have tipped his hand, stating he’s “looking beyond the stats” when evaluating Chas McCormick, who is struggling this spring with a .167 average. If McCormick starts in right field and falters, Dezenzo, Smith, and Ben Gamel will be waiting for their shot.
With a solid rotation, key offensive additions, and young talent pushing for playing time, Houston may be far better than some are predicting.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we cover the topics above and much, much more!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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