How Astros surging ace raises key questions about Houston's short, long-term rotation moves
STONE COLD 'STROS
25 July 2024
What's the ceiling for Hunter Brown? Composite Getty Image.
It's no secret to Astros fans that the ascension of Hunter Brown is one of the primary reasons the team was able to rebound from a disastrous start to the season.
Astros manager Joe Espada has seen enough from Brown to start throwing around the word “ace” when talking about him.
Joe Espada on Hunter Brown: "He's having that ace feeling to him. We are expecting him to go out there and deliver what he just did. We knew all along that is in him and now he's starting to turn the corner. He's starting to have that swag where he knows 'my team needs a win.'"
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) July 24, 2024
And it appears the biggest key to Brown's turnaround was mixing in a two-seam fastball to keep right-handed hitters honest. Brown needed a pitch that could command the inside of the plate, which allows his other pitches to be more effective.
We learned just recently, from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alex Bregman was the one that suggested the addition of the two-seam fastball to Brown's arsenal.
Come to find out, Bregman often shares advice on how to attack hitters. Or he'll ask pitchers why they chose a certain pitch in a specific situation.
This just goes to show that veteran leadership can make a big difference. Especially on a team with so many young pitchers and catchers. Bregman was able to help Brown when no pitching coach could.
For Brown, this small tweak could be the catalyst that changes the course of his career. And the Astros season for that matter.
However, some will say the difference in Brown is more about confidence than anything else. But confidence only builds after repeated success. Nobody knows where Brown would be without the two-seam fastball.
Looking ahead
If the Astros do make the playoffs, where will Espada slot Brown in the playoff rotation? Framber Valdez has the playoff experience, so he'll probably be penciled in as the number one starter.
Justin Verlander (neck) still isn't facing live batters, so it's hard to count on him. Ronel Blanco has been an All-Star level pitcher this season, but he doesn't have any experience pitching playoff games for the Astros.
So it wouldn't be surprising at all if Brown is the team's number two starter. In all likelihood, whoever is pitching the best at the end of the season may get the nod. But it's fun to discuss in the meantime.
Finally, how does Hunter Brown's arrival impact the Astros' plans at the trade deadline? And how could that affect Justin Verlander's future with the club?
Be sure to check out the video above for the full conversation!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in his last 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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