FACTS NOT NOISE
How even the loudest media hype can't overshadow Houston Astros shrewd moves
Oct 10, 2023, 12:38 pm
FACTS NOT NOISE
Jeremy Pena vs. Carlos Correa. Composite Getty Image.
After Carlos Correa belted three hits, made a dazzling play in the field and led the Minnesota Twins over the Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS, the media went all fanboy on the former Astro shortstop who came back to bite Houston in the butt.
Sports writers and broadcasters lauded Correa as a megastar beast who shines in the biggest moments. X, formerly Twitter, lit up with (not all, some) Astros fans moaning “shoulda paid Correa whatever it took for him to stay with the Astros” remorse.
What it took was $105 million over three years – the Astros offer wasn't close – and Correa signed with the Twins.
Baseball is the most statistics-laden sport, and each player is measured by at least 60 statistics, that I could find, some of them mind-numbing, from simple batting average to cWPA (championship win probability added for offensive player), RE24 (base-out runs added), Rtot/yr (total zone total fielding runs above average per 1,200 innings), RF/9 (range factor per nine innings – putouts plus assists), and CRDX (caught in rundown in extra innings percentage).
I made up one of those stats, go on baseball-reference.com and find it.
That’s the thing about numbers – they don't lie and there's no escaping them. Sunday was just one game. Sure Correa is a spectacular player with a booming personality. But spectacular doesn’t steal bases, and personality won't beat the Astros.
When you boil down and sous vide the numbers, the Astros did the right thing by allowing Correa to leave over money, instead investing their shortstop futures in Jeremy Peña.
Right now, as we head to Game 3 of the 2023 ALDS, give me Pena as my shortstop over Correa.
Correa is 29 years old, a veteran of nine years in the big leagues. He’s opinionated and a team leader in the clubhouse. He’s got broadcasting in his future. Pena is older than he looks coming off his rookie season. He’s 26. He’s a quiet sort who doesn’t squawk even when Jose Altuve orders him to park his car (in HEB commercials).
Correa made (I didn’t say earned) $33,333,333 million this season. He batted .230 in 135 games with 18 home runs. That’s basically what Jose Abreu contributed to the Astros this season. Here’s the difference: the Twins have moved Correa into the cleanup spot (4th) for the ALDS. Astros fans are pleading with manager Dusty Baker to move Abreu out of the 5th spot for the ALDS. Disappointing is in the eye of the beholder.
Pena made $750,000 this season. He batted .263 in 150 games. I know that salary doesn’t define a player’s worth, and it isn’t my money paying him, but you’re going to tell me that Carlos Correa is 44 times a better player than Jeremy Pena?
The media was all smoochy face over Correa after Game 2 – the great clutch player in big moments. Correa’s lifetime batting average in the post-season, including Sunday’s 3-hit barrage, is .285. Peña’s batting average is .345 with 20 hits, 4 homers, 8 RBIs and 12 runs scored in 13 games in his post-season career.
You might recall that he was MVP in both the ALCS and World Series last year. He isn’t laying down in this year’s ALDS. He’s 3 for 8 with a .375 batting average.
I’ll give Correa this, his fielding play at short Sunday was excellent, and his play throwing out Bo Bichette at home during the wild card was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen an infielder make. But who is the reigning American League Gold Glover at shortstop? That’s Jeremy Pena, who made his own ridiculous fielding play on Sunday.
Correa has one Gold Glove over his nine-year career. Pena is one-for-one in Gold Gloves.
Stealing bases isn’t the end all of a player’s running ability, but it’s certainly important when a team needs to get a runner in scoring position in late innings. Correa stole exactly zero bases this year. In fact, he hasn’t pilfered a base in his last four seasons. Pena stole 13 bases this year. That’s not Rickey Henderson, but 13 is more than none.
I’m not saying that Jeremy Pena is a better player than Carlos Correa at this point in time (maybe I am). I’m just cautioning, let’s not go overboard with Correamania until we see which team advances to the ALCS. I’m on Pena and the Astros.
For the Houston Rockets, it's already been an exciting offseason, with the team trading for NBA superstar Kevin Durant earlier this week. The Rockets also inked extensions with big man Steven Adams and head coach Ime Udoka in recent weeks.
Apparently the action isn't slowing down as the Rockets have reportedly agreed to a contract extension with guard Fred VanVleet.
Senior ESPN NBA analyst Sham Charania is reporting that VanVleet intends to sign a 2-year, $50 million contract with Houston.
Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet intends to sign a two-year, $50 million contract to stay with the franchise, with a player option in 2026-27, sources tell ESPN. Rockets are declining VanVleet's $44.9 million team option and land the new deal with Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul. pic.twitter.com/rwtEUptBQT
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 25, 2025
Charania is also reporting that VanVleet has a player option for the 2026-2027 season.
In 60 games, VanVleet averaged just over 14 points and 5.6 assists per game last season.
This is a team-friendly deal for the Rockets that gets them below the luxury tax line, helping them avoid the repeater tax. It also opens up the full $14.1 million mid-level exception to add more talent to the roster. For VanVleet, it's more total money and an extra year of security.
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