FACTS NOT NOISE

How even the loudest media hype can't overshadow Houston Astros shrewd moves

Astros Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker

Jeremy Pena vs. Carlos Correa. Composite Getty Image.

Here are the underlying factors laying groundwork for Astros stretch run

After Carlos Correa belted three hits, made a dazzling play in the field and led the Minnesota Twins over the Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS, the media went all fanboy on the former Astro shortstop who came back to bite Houston in the butt.

Sports writers and broadcasters lauded Correa as a megastar beast who shines in the biggest moments. X, formerly Twitter, lit up with (not all, some) Astros fans moaning “shoulda paid Correa whatever it took for him to stay with the Astros” remorse.

What it took was $105 million over three years – the Astros offer wasn't close – and Correa signed with the Twins.

Baseball is the most statistics-laden sport, and each player is measured by at least 60 statistics, that I could find, some of them mind-numbing, from simple batting average to cWPA (championship win probability added for offensive player), RE24 (base-out runs added), Rtot/yr (total zone total fielding runs above average per 1,200 innings), RF/9 (range factor per nine innings – putouts plus assists), and CRDX (caught in rundown in extra innings percentage).

I made up one of those stats, go on baseball-reference.com and find it.

That’s the thing about numbers – they don't lie and there's no escaping them. Sunday was just one game. Sure Correa is a spectacular player with a booming personality. But spectacular doesn’t steal bases, and personality won't beat the Astros.

When you boil down and sous vide the numbers, the Astros did the right thing by allowing Correa to leave over money, instead investing their shortstop futures in Jeremy Peña.

Right now, as we head to Game 3 of the 2023 ALDS, give me Pena as my shortstop over Correa.

Correa is 29 years old, a veteran of nine years in the big leagues. He’s opinionated and a team leader in the clubhouse. He’s got broadcasting in his future. Pena is older than he looks coming off his rookie season. He’s 26. He’s a quiet sort who doesn’t squawk even when Jose Altuve orders him to park his car (in HEB commercials).

Correa made (I didn’t say earned) $33,333,333 million this season. He batted .230 in 135 games with 18 home runs. That’s basically what Jose Abreu contributed to the Astros this season. Here’s the difference: the Twins have moved Correa into the cleanup spot (4th) for the ALDS. Astros fans are pleading with manager Dusty Baker to move Abreu out of the 5th spot for the ALDS. Disappointing is in the eye of the beholder.

Pena made $750,000 this season. He batted .263 in 150 games. I know that salary doesn’t define a player’s worth, and it isn’t my money paying him, but you’re going to tell me that Carlos Correa is 44 times a better player than Jeremy Pena?

The media was all smoochy face over Correa after Game 2 – the great clutch player in big moments. Correa’s lifetime batting average in the post-season, including Sunday’s 3-hit barrage, is .285. Peña’s batting average is .345 with 20 hits, 4 homers, 8 RBIs and 12 runs scored in 13 games in his post-season career.

You might recall that he was MVP in both the ALCS and World Series last year. He isn’t laying down in this year’s ALDS. He’s 3 for 8 with a .375 batting average.

I’ll give Correa this, his fielding play at short Sunday was excellent, and his play throwing out Bo Bichette at home during the wild card was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen an infielder make. But who is the reigning American League Gold Glover at shortstop? That’s Jeremy Pena, who made his own ridiculous fielding play on Sunday.

Correa has one Gold Glove over his nine-year career. Pena is one-for-one in Gold Gloves.

Stealing bases isn’t the end all of a player’s running ability, but it’s certainly important when a team needs to get a runner in scoring position in late innings. Correa stole exactly zero bases this year. In fact, he hasn’t pilfered a base in his last four seasons. Pena stole 13 bases this year. That’s not Rickey Henderson, but 13 is more than none.

I’m not saying that Jeremy Pena is a better player than Carlos Correa at this point in time (maybe I am). I’m just cautioning, let’s not go overboard with Correamania until we see which team advances to the ALCS. I’m on Pena and the Astros.

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The Angels beat the Astros, 4-1. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Oswald Peraza hit a two-run single in the ninth inning to help the Los Angeles Angels snap a three-game losing skid by beating the Houston Astros 4-1 on Saturday night.

Peraza entered the game as a defensive replacement in the seventh inning and hit a bases-loaded fly ball to deep right field that eluded the outstretched glove of Cam Smith. It was the fourth straight hit off Astros closer Bryan Abreu (3-4), who had not allowed a run in his previous 12 appearances.

The Angels third run of the ninth inning scored when Mike Trout walked with the bases loaded.

Kyle Hendricks allowed one run while scattering seven hits over six innings. He held the Astros to 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the one hit coming on Jesús Sánchez’s third-inning infield single that scored Jeremy Peña.

Reid Detmers worked around a leadoff walk to keep the Astros scoreless in the seventh, and José Fermin (3-2) retired the side in order in the eighth before Kenley Jansen worked a scoreless ninth to earn his 24th save.

Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high eight batters over 6 1/3 innings. The only hit he allowed was Zach Neto’s third-inning solo home run.

Yordan Alvarez had two hits for the Astros, who remained three games ahead of Seattle for first place in the AL West.

Key moment

Peraza’s two-run single to deep right field that broke a 1-1 tie in the ninth.

Key Stat

Opponents were 5 for 44 against Abreu in August before he allowed four straight hits in the ninth.

Up next

Astros RHP Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) faces RHP José Soriano (9-9, 3.85) when the series continues Sunday.

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