FACTS NOT NOISE
How even the loudest media hype can't overshadow Houston Astros shrewd moves
Oct 10, 2023, 12:38 pm
Jeremy Pena vs. Carlos Correa. Composite Getty Image.
Here are the underlying factors laying groundwork for Astros stretch run
After Carlos Correa belted three hits, made a dazzling play in the field and led the Minnesota Twins over the Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS, the media went all fanboy on the former Astro shortstop who came back to bite Houston in the butt.
Sports writers and broadcasters lauded Correa as a megastar beast who shines in the biggest moments. X, formerly Twitter, lit up with (not all, some) Astros fans moaning “shoulda paid Correa whatever it took for him to stay with the Astros” remorse.
What it took was $105 million over three years – the Astros offer wasn't close – and Correa signed with the Twins.
Baseball is the most statistics-laden sport, and each player is measured by at least 60 statistics, that I could find, some of them mind-numbing, from simple batting average to cWPA (championship win probability added for offensive player), RE24 (base-out runs added), Rtot/yr (total zone total fielding runs above average per 1,200 innings), RF/9 (range factor per nine innings – putouts plus assists), and CRDX (caught in rundown in extra innings percentage).
I made up one of those stats, go on baseball-reference.com and find it.
That’s the thing about numbers – they don't lie and there's no escaping them. Sunday was just one game. Sure Correa is a spectacular player with a booming personality. But spectacular doesn’t steal bases, and personality won't beat the Astros.
When you boil down and sous vide the numbers, the Astros did the right thing by allowing Correa to leave over money, instead investing their shortstop futures in Jeremy Peña.
Right now, as we head to Game 3 of the 2023 ALDS, give me Pena as my shortstop over Correa.
Correa is 29 years old, a veteran of nine years in the big leagues. He’s opinionated and a team leader in the clubhouse. He’s got broadcasting in his future. Pena is older than he looks coming off his rookie season. He’s 26. He’s a quiet sort who doesn’t squawk even when Jose Altuve orders him to park his car (in HEB commercials).
Correa made (I didn’t say earned) $33,333,333 million this season. He batted .230 in 135 games with 18 home runs. That’s basically what Jose Abreu contributed to the Astros this season. Here’s the difference: the Twins have moved Correa into the cleanup spot (4th) for the ALDS. Astros fans are pleading with manager Dusty Baker to move Abreu out of the 5th spot for the ALDS. Disappointing is in the eye of the beholder.
Pena made $750,000 this season. He batted .263 in 150 games. I know that salary doesn’t define a player’s worth, and it isn’t my money paying him, but you’re going to tell me that Carlos Correa is 44 times a better player than Jeremy Pena?
The media was all smoochy face over Correa after Game 2 – the great clutch player in big moments. Correa’s lifetime batting average in the post-season, including Sunday’s 3-hit barrage, is .285. Peña’s batting average is .345 with 20 hits, 4 homers, 8 RBIs and 12 runs scored in 13 games in his post-season career.
You might recall that he was MVP in both the ALCS and World Series last year. He isn’t laying down in this year’s ALDS. He’s 3 for 8 with a .375 batting average.
I’ll give Correa this, his fielding play at short Sunday was excellent, and his play throwing out Bo Bichette at home during the wild card was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen an infielder make. But who is the reigning American League Gold Glover at shortstop? That’s Jeremy Pena, who made his own ridiculous fielding play on Sunday.
Correa has one Gold Glove over his nine-year career. Pena is one-for-one in Gold Gloves.
Stealing bases isn’t the end all of a player’s running ability, but it’s certainly important when a team needs to get a runner in scoring position in late innings. Correa stole exactly zero bases this year. In fact, he hasn’t pilfered a base in his last four seasons. Pena stole 13 bases this year. That’s not Rickey Henderson, but 13 is more than none.
I’m not saying that Jeremy Pena is a better player than Carlos Correa at this point in time (maybe I am). I’m just cautioning, let’s not go overboard with Correamania until we see which team advances to the ALCS. I’m on Pena and the Astros.
The Houston Texans addressed their most glaring needs by selecting offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery and a pair of Iowa State receivers in the NFL draft.
“The idea was to try to add good players, good people that are young, tough, hungry, that want to win, that put the team first,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “These picks exemplify that.”
The Texans got players that could help them quickly despite not picking in the first round for a second straight season. They didn’t have a first-round pick last year because of trades, including the one to move up and get defensive end Will Anderson with the third overall pick in the 2023 draft.
This season they shipped the 25th overall pick to the Giants on Thursday in exchange for several picks.
Their first selection in this draft was receiver Jayden Higgins, who was taken with the second pick of the second round. They added Ersery later in the second round with the 48th overall selection and picked up Higgins’ teammate Jaylin Noel in the third round.
Ersery could be Houston’s left tackle of the future after the offseason trade of five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Ersery started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota where he was a third-team All-American last season.
He comes to Houston to help shore up a line that allowed C.J. Stroud to be sacked 52 times last season, which was the second most in the NFL.
The Texans added veteran tackle Cam Robinson this offseason and Ersery will compete with him to protect Stroud’s blind side as the Texans attempt to reach the playoffs for a third straight season under coach DeMeco Ryans.
The 6-foot-6, 331-pound Ersery, who was the Big Ten’s Offensive Lineman of the Year last season, can’t wait to play with Stroud.
“C.J. Stroud is a baller,” Ersery said. “I’m so honored to be a guy to help out and come in and help protect him. I’m just super stoked and I know I’m going to a great organization.”
Cyclones teammates
Higgins and Noel join the Texans to add more depth at receiver to complement star Nico Collins with Tank Dell recovering from a serious knee injury and Stefon Diggs gone to the Patriots.
Higgins, who has been compared to Collins, had 87 receptions for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns last season for the Cyclones and Noel added 80 catches for 1,194 yards and eight scores.
After Higgins was drafted, Noel never imagined he’d be heading to Houston, too. He shared on social media a fortune he received from a Chinese restaurant that read: “Look forward to an unplanned reunion with an out-of-touch friend.”
Noel later shared his feelings about joining Higgins on the roster.
“I was surprised,” Noel said. “But they’ve seen that 1-2 punch all year. They’re going to be very happy with those selections for sure.”
Caserio said a talk with Iowa State coach Matt Campbell on Friday helped him make his final decisions on the receivers.
“He was effusive in his… belief and praise of both Higgins and Noel,” Caserio said.
The Texans now have three receivers from Iowa State on their roster after drafting Xavier Hutchinson in the sixth round in 2023.
Overcoming obstacles
Ersery and his four siblings were raised by a single mother and experienced homelessness when he was a child despite her working multiple jobs. He is thrilled to have put those struggles behind him as he embarks on his next chapter.
“I’ve got that hardworking mentality from her,” he said. “So, growing up times were tough but now I’ve got my foot in the door and I look forward to trying to change some things around.”
Caserio loves guys with work ethic like Ersery’s and said that’s one reason why they believe he’ll fit in with the Texans.
“If you come in and put your head down and work and just get better, take advantage of your opportunities, you’re going to have a shot to have success and do a lot of good things for the organization,” he said.
What’s in a name?
Along with Noel, the Texans added another Jaylin in this draft with they picked USC cornerback Jaylin Smith in the third round.
“We got Jaylins, and we got all these guys around. It’s going to be hard to keep them straight,” Caserio joked on Friday after they picked Smith.
Then on Saturday, the Texans added another player with the same name, albeit with a different spelling, when they took Penn State safety Jaylen Reed in the sixth round.
That gives them four players with the same name and three different spellings as the three rookies join starting safety Jalen Pitre on the team.
Doubling up
Along with drafting two players from Iowa State, the Texans also added a pair of players from Southern California when they picked running back Woody Marks in the fourth round after drafting Smith in the third.
Marks ran for a career-high 1,133 yards with nine touchdowns for the Trojans last season after transferring from Mississippi State.
Be sure to watch the video below as NFL.com Draft Analyst Lance Zierlein shares his thoughts on all the Texans' picks!