FACTS NOT NOISE

How even the loudest media hype can't overshadow Houston Astros shrewd moves

Astros Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker

Jeremy Pena vs. Carlos Correa. Composite Getty Image.

Here are the underlying factors laying groundwork for Astros stretch run

After Carlos Correa belted three hits, made a dazzling play in the field and led the Minnesota Twins over the Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS, the media went all fanboy on the former Astro shortstop who came back to bite Houston in the butt.

Sports writers and broadcasters lauded Correa as a megastar beast who shines in the biggest moments. X, formerly Twitter, lit up with (not all, some) Astros fans moaning “shoulda paid Correa whatever it took for him to stay with the Astros” remorse.

What it took was $105 million over three years – the Astros offer wasn't close – and Correa signed with the Twins.

Baseball is the most statistics-laden sport, and each player is measured by at least 60 statistics, that I could find, some of them mind-numbing, from simple batting average to cWPA (championship win probability added for offensive player), RE24 (base-out runs added), Rtot/yr (total zone total fielding runs above average per 1,200 innings), RF/9 (range factor per nine innings – putouts plus assists), and CRDX (caught in rundown in extra innings percentage).

I made up one of those stats, go on baseball-reference.com and find it.

That’s the thing about numbers – they don't lie and there's no escaping them. Sunday was just one game. Sure Correa is a spectacular player with a booming personality. But spectacular doesn’t steal bases, and personality won't beat the Astros.

When you boil down and sous vide the numbers, the Astros did the right thing by allowing Correa to leave over money, instead investing their shortstop futures in Jeremy Peña.

Right now, as we head to Game 3 of the 2023 ALDS, give me Pena as my shortstop over Correa.

Correa is 29 years old, a veteran of nine years in the big leagues. He’s opinionated and a team leader in the clubhouse. He’s got broadcasting in his future. Pena is older than he looks coming off his rookie season. He’s 26. He’s a quiet sort who doesn’t squawk even when Jose Altuve orders him to park his car (in HEB commercials).

Correa made (I didn’t say earned) $33,333,333 million this season. He batted .230 in 135 games with 18 home runs. That’s basically what Jose Abreu contributed to the Astros this season. Here’s the difference: the Twins have moved Correa into the cleanup spot (4th) for the ALDS. Astros fans are pleading with manager Dusty Baker to move Abreu out of the 5th spot for the ALDS. Disappointing is in the eye of the beholder.

Pena made $750,000 this season. He batted .263 in 150 games. I know that salary doesn’t define a player’s worth, and it isn’t my money paying him, but you’re going to tell me that Carlos Correa is 44 times a better player than Jeremy Pena?

The media was all smoochy face over Correa after Game 2 – the great clutch player in big moments. Correa’s lifetime batting average in the post-season, including Sunday’s 3-hit barrage, is .285. Peña’s batting average is .345 with 20 hits, 4 homers, 8 RBIs and 12 runs scored in 13 games in his post-season career.

You might recall that he was MVP in both the ALCS and World Series last year. He isn’t laying down in this year’s ALDS. He’s 3 for 8 with a .375 batting average.

I’ll give Correa this, his fielding play at short Sunday was excellent, and his play throwing out Bo Bichette at home during the wild card was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen an infielder make. But who is the reigning American League Gold Glover at shortstop? That’s Jeremy Pena, who made his own ridiculous fielding play on Sunday.

Correa has one Gold Glove over his nine-year career. Pena is one-for-one in Gold Gloves.

Stealing bases isn’t the end all of a player’s running ability, but it’s certainly important when a team needs to get a runner in scoring position in late innings. Correa stole exactly zero bases this year. In fact, he hasn’t pilfered a base in his last four seasons. Pena stole 13 bases this year. That’s not Rickey Henderson, but 13 is more than none.

I’m not saying that Jeremy Pena is a better player than Carlos Correa at this point in time (maybe I am). I’m just cautioning, let’s not go overboard with Correamania until we see which team advances to the ALCS. I’m on Pena and the Astros.

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McCullers is finally back in the win column. Composite Getty Image.

Lance McCullers Jr. finally got some peace of mind on Tuesday night.

The Astros right-hander pitched six scoreless innings to get his first win since Sept. 21, 2022, as Houston beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0. McCullers missed the 2023 and 2024 seasons because of injuries and had not won in five starts this year since being activated from the injured list on May 4.

McCullers (1-1) struck out seven and walked one while outdueling Pirates ace Paul Skenes, who gave up one run — on a solo homer by Christian Walker in the seventh — in eight innings.

“It took a while, but we got there,” McCullers said of getting the win. “I’m just happy that I’m kind of back in the mix with the guys, and I’m able to give them legitimate opportunities to win.”

McCullers was also happy to have a difficult off-field situation behind him.

A drunken bettor who made online death threats aimed at McCullers’ family lives overseas and told Houston police he was sorry for what he had done, a department spokesperson said Monday.

McCullers received the threats on social media directed at his children after a poor start against the Cincinnati Reds on May 10 in which he allowed seven runs while recording only one out.

The Astros said Houston police and MLB security were notified. McCullers and his wife Kara have two young daughters. Astros owner Jim Crane hired 24-hour security for them.

Police public information officer Erika Ramirez said the man who made the threats was identified during an investigation. Because no charges have been filed, police are not disclosing his identity or where he lives.

“I don’t want to keep on about it, but a lot of thanks go to the Astros, the Astros security, Jim Crane, MLB security, my teammates, the HPD,” McCullers said. “Having resolution is nice. Not being close to Houston is nice. The fans are super supportive, too, and I appreciate that. It’s good that it’s behind us and our family feels safe again.”

The man told police that he would like to apologize to McCullers for the threats. McCullers said he would accept.

“As a follower of Christ and called to love our neighbor and forgive, I would be open to that,” he said.

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