THE PALLILOG
Something inexplicable is happening with Astros’ Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
Sep 7, 2023, 4:30 pm
Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have been road warriors. Composite Getty Image.
In 1978 the New York Yankees woke up July 20 a whopping 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees then made one of the most famous comebacks of all-time to win the division, then went on to win the World Series. A defining series within the turnaround was a four game set at Fenway Park in early September, which began with the Red Sox clinging to a four game lead. The Yankees annihilated the BoSox four straight by a combined score of 42-9 to leave Boston tied for the lead. Borrowing from gruesome 18th century history, the series was nicknamed “The Boston Massacre.” The Yankees ultimately prevailed in the AL East by winning a one game playoff at Fenway.
With due respect to Tobe Hooper and Kim Henkel, we now have “The Texas Baseball Massacre” to remember (Hooper and Henkel were the minds behind the non-Disney movie The Texas Chainsaw Massacre). Heading into their three game set at Globe Life Field the Astros and Texas Rangers were in a virtual tie one game back of Seattle in the AL West. The Astros didn’t nail shut the coffin on the Rangers in Arlington this week, but they at least closed the lid.
A cumulative three game 39-10 devastation of the upstaters has the Astros three games ahead of the Rangers and owning the tiebreaker. The Rangers are 4-15 over their last 19 games. They play four games at Toronto next week and play seven of their final 10 games against Seattle, so a Wild Card is still within reach, but the Rangers’ chances of finishing ahead of the Astros now rate closer to none than slim. The Astros were never more than six and a half games behind the Rangers, most recently after a loss June 24. It would be a stunning reversal if they look up at them in the standings again this season.
The Astros are back as the team to beat in the AL West, though the Mariners can certainly have something to say about that. The Mariners have owned the Astros head-to-head 8-2 this season, so the M’s own the tiebreaker, and also get the Astros for three games at T-Mobile Park to start the final week of the regular season. Still, the Astros have the substantially easier remaining schedule. While the Mariners are playing four games at the Rays this weekend and have three against the Dodgers next week, the Astros get the talented but epically underachieving San Diego Padres this weekend before three vs. the inept A’s then three at the almost as inept Royals.
So the Astros are rolling with momentum as they open a weekend series at Minute Maid Park against the Padres! Like the momentum the Astros had after winning two games in Miami last month before coming home and having the Mariners sweep them three straight? Like the momentum the Astros had after whacking the Red Sox three straight in Boston last week before coming home to have the Yankees sweep them three in a row? For a ballclub of the Astros’ quality their 35-34 record at MMP stinks. It is jarringly weak in comparison to their spectacular 45-27 road mark. There is no logical explanation for it. They have simply played inferior baseball at home. Team ERA at MMP 4.08, everywhere else 3.77. Team batting average at MMP .252, everywhere else .268. Home OPS .734, everywhere else .801.
The most glaring individual disparities belong to the Astros’ two best hitters, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Altuve has played in just under half of the Astros games to date (69 of 141) so maybe given a full season things would have balanced out more, but Altuve has a .267 average and .782 OPS at home, while on the road he’s pint-sized Hercules batting .355 with a 1.098 OPS. Granted, the five homers in two games in Arlington this week skewed those numbers a bit. Alvarez has solid home numbers with a .275 average and .841 OPS, but they pale relative to his .310 road average and 1.114 OPS.
All Astro hitters will be challenged in the Friday night opener vs. the Padres. The Friars (great unofficial alternate nickname. Hey, if the Padres ever acquired the Astros’ star right fielder he’d be Friar Tuck!) pitch Blake Snell, merely the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last three-plus months. Snell walks guys, but strikes out a lot more and gives up few hits. Over his last 19 starts Snell’s numbers are incredible: 1.31 ERA over 110 innings pitched with just 62 hits allowed, making for an opposing batting average of .165. He has walked 62 over the stretch while striking out 153. Snell’s 2.50 season ERA is the best in the big leagues among qualifiers. He’s in a two horse race with the Cubs’ Justin Steele for the National League Cy Young Award. In 2018 Snell won the AL Cy Young as a Tampa Bay Ray, beating out Justin Verlander. If Snell wins this year, he becomes the seventh pitcher to win at least one in each league. The most recent to achieve it was Max Scherzer, last seen as a chalk outline Wednesday night against the Astros. The others: Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Roy Halladay.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
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