THE PALLILOG
Something inexplicable is happening with Astros’ Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
Sep 7, 2023, 4:30 pm
Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have been road warriors. Composite Getty Image.
In 1978 the New York Yankees woke up July 20 a whopping 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees then made one of the most famous comebacks of all-time to win the division, then went on to win the World Series. A defining series within the turnaround was a four game set at Fenway Park in early September, which began with the Red Sox clinging to a four game lead. The Yankees annihilated the BoSox four straight by a combined score of 42-9 to leave Boston tied for the lead. Borrowing from gruesome 18th century history, the series was nicknamed “The Boston Massacre.” The Yankees ultimately prevailed in the AL East by winning a one game playoff at Fenway.
With due respect to Tobe Hooper and Kim Henkel, we now have “The Texas Baseball Massacre” to remember (Hooper and Henkel were the minds behind the non-Disney movie The Texas Chainsaw Massacre). Heading into their three game set at Globe Life Field the Astros and Texas Rangers were in a virtual tie one game back of Seattle in the AL West. The Astros didn’t nail shut the coffin on the Rangers in Arlington this week, but they at least closed the lid.
A cumulative three game 39-10 devastation of the upstaters has the Astros three games ahead of the Rangers and owning the tiebreaker. The Rangers are 4-15 over their last 19 games. They play four games at Toronto next week and play seven of their final 10 games against Seattle, so a Wild Card is still within reach, but the Rangers’ chances of finishing ahead of the Astros now rate closer to none than slim. The Astros were never more than six and a half games behind the Rangers, most recently after a loss June 24. It would be a stunning reversal if they look up at them in the standings again this season.
The Astros are back as the team to beat in the AL West, though the Mariners can certainly have something to say about that. The Mariners have owned the Astros head-to-head 8-2 this season, so the M’s own the tiebreaker, and also get the Astros for three games at T-Mobile Park to start the final week of the regular season. Still, the Astros have the substantially easier remaining schedule. While the Mariners are playing four games at the Rays this weekend and have three against the Dodgers next week, the Astros get the talented but epically underachieving San Diego Padres this weekend before three vs. the inept A’s then three at the almost as inept Royals.
So the Astros are rolling with momentum as they open a weekend series at Minute Maid Park against the Padres! Like the momentum the Astros had after winning two games in Miami last month before coming home and having the Mariners sweep them three straight? Like the momentum the Astros had after whacking the Red Sox three straight in Boston last week before coming home to have the Yankees sweep them three in a row? For a ballclub of the Astros’ quality their 35-34 record at MMP stinks. It is jarringly weak in comparison to their spectacular 45-27 road mark. There is no logical explanation for it. They have simply played inferior baseball at home. Team ERA at MMP 4.08, everywhere else 3.77. Team batting average at MMP .252, everywhere else .268. Home OPS .734, everywhere else .801.
The most glaring individual disparities belong to the Astros’ two best hitters, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Altuve has played in just under half of the Astros games to date (69 of 141) so maybe given a full season things would have balanced out more, but Altuve has a .267 average and .782 OPS at home, while on the road he’s pint-sized Hercules batting .355 with a 1.098 OPS. Granted, the five homers in two games in Arlington this week skewed those numbers a bit. Alvarez has solid home numbers with a .275 average and .841 OPS, but they pale relative to his .310 road average and 1.114 OPS.
All Astro hitters will be challenged in the Friday night opener vs. the Padres. The Friars (great unofficial alternate nickname. Hey, if the Padres ever acquired the Astros’ star right fielder he’d be Friar Tuck!) pitch Blake Snell, merely the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last three-plus months. Snell walks guys, but strikes out a lot more and gives up few hits. Over his last 19 starts Snell’s numbers are incredible: 1.31 ERA over 110 innings pitched with just 62 hits allowed, making for an opposing batting average of .165. He has walked 62 over the stretch while striking out 153. Snell’s 2.50 season ERA is the best in the big leagues among qualifiers. He’s in a two horse race with the Cubs’ Justin Steele for the National League Cy Young Award. In 2018 Snell won the AL Cy Young as a Tampa Bay Ray, beating out Justin Verlander. If Snell wins this year, he becomes the seventh pitcher to win at least one in each league. The most recent to achieve it was Max Scherzer, last seen as a chalk outline Wednesday night against the Astros. The others: Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Roy Halladay.
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How Houston Texans' defense now measures up to other NFL powerhouses
Mar 14, 2025, 2:22 pm
We’re inside two weeks to the Astros starting their regular season (Yes!), but the NFL hogged this week of the pro sports scene with its annual spend like drunken sailors shopping spree via free agency. The Texans’ activity has been interesting on both the free agent and trade fronts. Let’s dig in.
Let’s start with their Tunsil-ectomy. Laremy Tunsil was a very good though not superstar left tackle here. His embarrassing number of false starts notwithstanding, Tunsil was consistently their best pass protector. That might not be saying much relative to the rest of the offensive line, but it is not meant as damning with faint praise. Pro Bowl selections can come from reputation or flat-out bad voting, but being named a Pro Bowler five times in six seasons is at least a good indicator a guy doesn’t stink. Still, had he remained, Tunsil’s salary cap figure would have been a bloated 28 and a half million dollars. Getting second and third round draft picks from the Washington Commanders for Tunsil is a good return, though it is also telling that the Texans were willing to absorb 15 million dollars in dead salary cap space to offload him.
Cutting guard Shaq Mason costs the Texans another 12 and a half mil in dead cap space, a little over five million of that swallowed this year with the balance wasted in 2026. Nick Caserio signed Tunsil and Mason to the contract extensions the Texans ultimately chose to escape from early. Caserio’s first first round pick in charge was guard Kenyon Green, whose time with the Texans was an absolute flop. Dealing Green this week to the Super Bowl Champion Eagles for safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is an absolute win, almost regardless of how Gardner-Johnson performs here. “CGJ” joins Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock in giving the Texans three talented safeties all 27 years old or younger. Back to the o-line. Two years in, former second round pick Juice Scruggs is a middling player at best. Off an undistinguished rookie season as a second rounder also, Blake Fisher has a prove himself season coming with the right tackle job seemingly being handed to him.
Tytus Howard presumably slots as the new left tackle. Season-to-season he has never been as good as Tunsil. At over 23 million dollars, Howard presently carries the second-biggest cap figure on the team, behind only Danielle Hunter. One guard spot in 2025 goes to value free agent signee Laken Tomlinson. Summing him up in one word, Tomlinson is middling. In another word he is durable. The 33-year-old Tomlinson has started every game for seven consecutive seasons. The downside is he’s just not that great. Hence the Texans get him on a one-year contract for four and a quarter mil. Yet, if Tomlinson can be an average starting guard that will be a substantial upgrade from their guard play in 2024. That leaves center and the other guard spot to sort through. Scruggs and Jarrett Patterson are still around. Caserio took a flier in trading a 2026 sixth round pick to Minnesota for guard Ed Ingram. After starting for two and a half seasons, a healthy Ingram was benched and didn’t play one snap apart from special teams in the Vikings’ last nine games. Ingram is only 26 years old and in the final season of his rookie contract. Again, he doesn’t need to be confused with prime-Mike Munchak to be able to improve the Texans at least incrementally.
Add it all up and Caserio has not done a good job where the o-line is concerned. His in-season remarks bleating about a “lazy narrative” from the media re: the weakness of that line were condescending and/or mistaken at the time, and now register as flat out ridiculous. The offensive coordinator and offensive line coach have been fired, three of the season-opening starting o-linemen have been jettisoned. With all of the changes, all offensive line problems going forward should be pinned squarely on Caserio. I think C.J. Stroud would agree.
Doubling down on defense
The Texans’ other free agent moves have been depth plays, most notably on the defensive line, re-signing defensive linemen Mario Edwards Jr., Derek Barnett, and Kurt Hinish, adding Darrell Taylor, and bringing back 2023 starter Sheldon Rankins after he had an injury-hindered 2024 with Cincinnati. The wide receiver room needed work. Stefon Diggs is probably gone, unfortunately Tank Dell is a question mark to play much at all in 2025. None among Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson should be automatics for roster spots. The trade for Christian Kirk from Jacksonville adds a speed component at wideout. Maybe Justin Watson from Kansas City has sleeper contributor potential. Over the last two seasons with the Chiefs Watson caught 49 passes, five for touchdowns.
The next heavy lifting for the Texans comes with the NFL Draft, which starts April 24. The Texans have the 25th pick in the first round. Pending any other free agent moves of note, offensive line and wide receiver should remain top priorities.
Closing in on Opening Day, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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