How significant Astros spring training revelation highlights even more reasons for optimism
TIPPING HIS HAND?
01 March 2024
TIPPING HIS HAND?
The Houston Astros had a very successful season in 2023 which led them back to the ALCS for the seventh-straight season, but despite another deep playoff run, their pitching did regress from the prior year.
While many would point to their historic bullpen in 2022 and say they had nowhere to go but down, that doesn't paint the full picture. It was the starting rotation that really fell off in 2023. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy all saw a spike in their ERAs from the previous season.
According to a recent report from The Athletic's Chandler Rome, we might have an explanation for Jose Urquidy's down year.
The Astros and Urquidy believe he was tipping his pitches. Which would explain why the slugging percentage against his fastball jumped from .482 in 2022 to .632 in 2023.
José Urquidy said he discovered this offseason that he was tipping some of his pitches by how he moved/squeezed his glove in his delivery. He worked this winter to solve that in addition to strengthening his lat/shoulder area where he got hurt last season.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 27, 2024
When hitters know a pitcher is tipping, they often start hunting fastballs. Also, his strikeout percentage went down last year and his walks went way up. He had 2 more walks per nine innings in 2023 than he had in 2021.
Part of that could be him aiming for corners and refusing to give in to hitters because his fastball wasn't performing up to expectations.
His WHIP in 2023 really jumped off the page as well. He finished with a WHIP over 1.4. While his career WHIP is 1.143. That's a huge difference.
Back to the big picture
Until last season, Urquidy never finished with an ERA over 3.95. He recorded a 5.29 ERA last year. So when we factor in his shoulder injury that cost him three months of the season, and the fact he was tipping pitches, we believe he's in store for a bounce-back season.
And the Astros are going to need him, especially with Justin Verlander and JP France possibly not being available for the start of the season.
What will the rotation look like early on?
The Astros haven't ruled Verlander out yet, so he could be ready to go. But if not, and we base this off what we saw last season. The rotation will likely include Valdez, Javier, Brown, Urquidy, Ronel Blanco, and Brandon Bielak.
Don't miss the video above for the full discussion!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel.
We'll continue to drop videos throughout the week!
It's no secret that the Texans' offense hasn't been the same since Stefon Diggs went down with an ACL injury midseason. To make matters even worse, Houston lost Tank Dell for the year, suffering a catastrophic knee injury against the Chiefs just a few weeks ago.
In an attempt to replace that production, the Texans took a flier on the talented and temperamental Diontae Johnson, who has worn out his welcome with now four NFL teams.
That's right. Aaron Wilson is reporting that the Texans have cut Johnson and elevated Jared Wayne from the practice squad.
When Diontae Johnson, now cut by #Texans, was with #Ravens he was suspended for conduct detrimental for refusing to play. After games, if he wasn't involved to his liking, he was highly upset and had to be calmed down. Pattern continued in Houston and now he's off his third #NFL… https://t.co/wF3WnRfBvg
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 14, 2025
This move is disappointing on so many levels. Houston desperately needs a playmaker to pair with Nico Collins, that's why they took a chance on the disgruntled receiver to begin with.
And while it's fair to blame Johnson for displaying displeasure about his role in a playoff game in which his team won, there are two sides to every story.
I certainly don't put this on the Texans. Johnson has proven many times to be a bad teammate, and who wants to deal with that during a playoff push?
But the Texans did only target Johnson one time in the game, which he caught and led to a field goal. While receiver John Metchie got most of the playing time despite losing a fumble on the first offensive possession of the game, costing the Texans three points.
Metchie almost had another fumble shortly after the first one, but luckily the refs ruled an incomplete pass on the play. My guess is Johnson correctly thought he was a better option than Metchie, who hasn't done anything of significance at this point in his NFL career, and was playing like the moment was too big for him.
As Metchie was making mistakes, I found myself looking for Diontae on the field and wondering why he wasn't getting more opportunities with Metchie looking like a disaster.
What's even more concerning was Nico Collins not receiving a target until the second quarter, but that's a story for another day.
As we look back at the stat sheet, Johnson was only on the field for 16 snaps, by far the fewest of Texans receivers. Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson played a much bigger role than he did.
If the Texans could do things over, planning to get the ball to Collins and Johnson early could have gotten the offense rolling, instead of waiting for the broken play that sparked CJ Stroud and the offense in the second quarter.
But instead, the former Pro Bowler had almost no role in the game, complained about it following a huge win, and is now off the team.
He could have been a very valuable asset against the Chiefs, who will likely take away Collins, forcing Stroud to go to his other options. Now, those options will be players that couldn't crack the starting lineup on any decent team.
Plus, tight end Cade Stover broke his collarbone against the Chargers, and has been placed on IR. It might not seem like a big deal losing Stover, after all, he hasn't been a very big piece of the offense this year.
But he hauled in four passes against the Chargers, the second-most on the team, tied with Metchie. Which also shows you how much Houston needs help at receiver.
At the end of the day, the friction with Johnson probably couldn't have been avoided. It's hard to get newly acquired players comfortable with a new offense and quarterback. Especially if he has an attitude.
But the Texans did know his frustration with the Ravens was all about his role, or lack there of. One can't help but wonder what might have been had the Texans decided to get him the ball early, to try to get some buy-in from a talented player they desperately needed.
There's a reason Jared Wayne (who collided with Dell in KC, ending his season) is being added from the practice squad, and Johnson is a former Pro Bowler.
And kudos to Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans for taking a chance on Johnson. Often, this franchise has avoided rolling the dice on a volatile player.
They gave it a shot, it didn't work, and they cut him. It was a low risk move worth trying that didn't pay off. And for Johnson, good luck finding another team.
This dude clearly prioritizes complaining over winning football games. Have fun explaining your antics to other teams when trying to get a contract next season. If you can't play for John Harbaugh or DeMeco Ryans, that says a lot about the player.