It’s time to get real about Astros rotation, Verlander, and Houston’s battery of dominant arms
TOUGH DECISIONS
10 September
Can Justin Verlander turn things around before it's too late? Composite Getty Image.
With only 19 games left in the regular season for the Astros, time is running out for Justin Verlander to justify a spot in the club's playoff rotation.
At best, he'll start another three games, with two of them likely against the lowly Angels. Not exactly a team similar to what Houston will face if they indeed make the postseason.
But at this point, Verlander needs to pass the eye-test before we even worry about the level of competition he'll be facing. JV's command is a huge issue. He's wild in the strike zone with his fastball, and also having trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes.
As much as we can blame some of his struggles on bad luck after returning from injury, his ERA for the season is over FIVE.
And more importantly, the Astros have better options to turn to when the playoffs begin. Naming the Astros No. 1 and No. 2 starters in the postseason is a no-brainer. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. So, at best, Verlander would be named the third or fourth starter, should they need one.
As of today, we just don't know how many games the Astros will play in their first playoff series. And we don't know how the rest of the rotation will pitch down the stretch. If the season were to end today, they would play a three-game series. So we'll discuss the top three starters for the time being.
Matchup over pitcher?
The Astros may choose to play the matchup when deciding on their Game 3 starter. If their opponent has trouble against lefties, that might influence the 'Stros to start Yusei Kikuchi. Which means the opposite could be true. Houston may go with Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, or Verlander against an opponent that struggles against right-handed pitchers.
Here's one more factor to consider. If the Astros find themselves in a three-game series in a win-or-go-home situation in Game 3, would anyone feel good about Verlander starting that game?
If JV isn't dominant over his remaining starts, there's no way he should get the nod over Arrighetti, Blanco, and Kikuchi. Despite his Hall of Fame resume.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we have an in-depth conversation about the Verlander conundrum the Astros are facing, and much more!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Here's what the next era of Astros baseball will look like
Dec 13, 2024, 8:31 pm
The Chicago Cubs acquired All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Houston Astros on Friday, paying a big price for one of baseball's best hitters.
The Cubs sent third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith, one of their top infield prospects, to the Astros for Tucker, who is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.
Be sure to watch the video below as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros reacts to the trade and lays out what the future holds for the new-look Astros.
Tucker was limited to 78 games this year because of a fractured right shin, but he hit .289 with 23 homers and 49 RBIs for the AL West champions. He batted .284 with 29 homers, an AL-best 112 RBIs and 30 steals for Houston in 2023.
Tucker, who turns 28 on Jan. 17, joins a crowded situation in Chicago's outfield, but the Cubs are reportedly looking to trade Cody Bellinger, who also can play first base. They also have talked to Seiya Suzuki's agent about the outfielder's no-trade clause.
The Cubs have finished second in the NL Central with an 83-79 record in each of the past two years, and there is increased pressure on president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to get the team back into the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
The Cubs announced later in the day that they had agreed to an $11.5 million, two-year contract with catcher Carson Kelly, a Chicago native. He played for Detroit and Texas this year, batting .238 with nine homers and 37 RBIs in 91 games.
The New York Yankees also were in the mix for Tucker before the trade was completed.
“We certainly had many conversations with the Astros.” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “At the end of the day I’m glad that Mr. Tucker is not in the American League East or the American League at all. But it’s a big get for the Chicago Cubs.”
Paredes is an option for Houston at third base if Alex Bregman departs in free agency. The 25-year-old Paredes hit .238 with 19 homers and 80 RBIs in 153 games this year. He made the AL All-Star team with Tampa Bay and then was traded to Chicago in July.
Paredes, who bats from the right side and is known for his pull power, chuckled as he talked about taking aim at the Crawford Boxes in left field at Minute Maid Park.
“I feel very happy. It's not only a beautiful stadium, but it's a stadium that benefits my hitting,” he said through a translator.
Even with the acquisition of Paredes, who also can play first, Astros general manager Dana Brown did not close the door on a reunion with Bregman.
“Pretty much Alex Bregman's status is still the way it is,” Brown said. “Nothing has changed since the last time I've talked to you guys.”
Wesneski, a Houston native who played college ball for Sam Houston State, will compete for a spot in the Astros’ rotation.
The right-hander, who turned 27 on Dec. 5, went 3-6 with a 3.86 ERA over 21 relief appearances and seven starts this year. He was on the injured list from July 20 to Sept. 20 with a right forearm strain.
“It’s just a dream-come-true kind of thing,” Wesneski said. “I am excited to be an Astro.”
Houston is hoping the addition of Paredes and Wesneski will help the team continue its impressive run as one of baseball's best teams. It has made the playoffs for eight straight years, winning the World Series in 2017 and 2022. It was swept by Detroit in the wild-card round this year.
“Look, make no mistake. We're still going to compete,” Brown said, “and this is probably one of those moves that I think in the future people will see and understand like, yeah, wow, I understand it now, I get it. ... I would say that this is more to strengthen our opportunities down the road without losing any footage in the current year.”
While Paredes and Wesneski could have an immediate impact, Smith also was a key component of the deal.
Smith, 21, was selected by Chicago with the No. 14 pick in this year's draft out of Florida State University. He hit .313 with seven homers and 24 RBIs in 32 games over three minor league stops, finishing the year with Double-A Knoxville.
“It's a really good first-round college bat with power, with a chance to hit, and he's pretty athletic as well,” Brown said. “So we're really excited about Cam Smith.”
Tucker was Houston's first-round pick in 2015, taken No. 5 overall. He made his big league debut with the Astros in 2018.
Tucker had a breakout performance three years after his debut, hitting a career-best .294 with 30 homers and 92 RBIs in 140 games in 2021. He won a Gold Glove the following year.
The Tampa, Florida, native is a .274 hitter with 125 homers, 417 RBIs and an .869 OPS in 633 career games — all with Houston. He also has appeared in 64 postseason games, batting .229 with eight homers and 28 RBIs.
Kelly gets $5 million in each of the next two seasons, and his deal with Chicago includes a $7.5 million mutual option for 2027 with a $1.5 million buyout. He can earn $500,000 in performance bonuses during each of the three seasons; $250,000 each for 81 and 91 games started.
The Cubs were in need of more depth behind the plate. They also have Miguel Amaya, who played in a career-high 117 games this year, and Matt Thaiss, who was acquired in a trade with the Angels on Nov. 20.
