It’s time to get real about Astros rotation, Verlander, and Houston’s battery of dominant arms
TOUGH DECISIONS
10 September 2024
Can Justin Verlander turn things around before it's too late? Composite Getty Image.
With only 19 games left in the regular season for the Astros, time is running out for Justin Verlander to justify a spot in the club's playoff rotation.
At best, he'll start another three games, with two of them likely against the lowly Angels. Not exactly a team similar to what Houston will face if they indeed make the postseason.
But at this point, Verlander needs to pass the eye-test before we even worry about the level of competition he'll be facing. JV's command is a huge issue. He's wild in the strike zone with his fastball, and also having trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes.
As much as we can blame some of his struggles on bad luck after returning from injury, his ERA for the season is over FIVE.
And more importantly, the Astros have better options to turn to when the playoffs begin. Naming the Astros No. 1 and No. 2 starters in the postseason is a no-brainer. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. So, at best, Verlander would be named the third or fourth starter, should they need one.
As of today, we just don't know how many games the Astros will play in their first playoff series. And we don't know how the rest of the rotation will pitch down the stretch. If the season were to end today, they would play a three-game series. So we'll discuss the top three starters for the time being.
Matchup over pitcher?
The Astros may choose to play the matchup when deciding on their Game 3 starter. If their opponent has trouble against lefties, that might influence the 'Stros to start Yusei Kikuchi. Which means the opposite could be true. Houston may go with Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, or Verlander against an opponent that struggles against right-handed pitchers.
Here's one more factor to consider. If the Astros find themselves in a three-game series in a win-or-go-home situation in Game 3, would anyone feel good about Verlander starting that game?
If JV isn't dominant over his remaining starts, there's no way he should get the nod over Arrighetti, Blanco, and Kikuchi. Despite his Hall of Fame resume.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we have an in-depth conversation about the Verlander conundrum the Astros are facing, and much more!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
How Astros can look to silver lining solutions coming out of the Break
Jul 14, 2025, 3:49 pm
After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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