It’s time to get real about Astros rotation, Verlander, and Houston’s battery of dominant arms
TOUGH DECISIONS
10 September 2024
Can Justin Verlander turn things around before it's too late? Composite Getty Image.
With only 19 games left in the regular season for the Astros, time is running out for Justin Verlander to justify a spot in the club's playoff rotation.
At best, he'll start another three games, with two of them likely against the lowly Angels. Not exactly a team similar to what Houston will face if they indeed make the postseason.
But at this point, Verlander needs to pass the eye-test before we even worry about the level of competition he'll be facing. JV's command is a huge issue. He's wild in the strike zone with his fastball, and also having trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes.
As much as we can blame some of his struggles on bad luck after returning from injury, his ERA for the season is over FIVE.
And more importantly, the Astros have better options to turn to when the playoffs begin. Naming the Astros No. 1 and No. 2 starters in the postseason is a no-brainer. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. So, at best, Verlander would be named the third or fourth starter, should they need one.
As of today, we just don't know how many games the Astros will play in their first playoff series. And we don't know how the rest of the rotation will pitch down the stretch. If the season were to end today, they would play a three-game series. So we'll discuss the top three starters for the time being.
Matchup over pitcher?
The Astros may choose to play the matchup when deciding on their Game 3 starter. If their opponent has trouble against lefties, that might influence the 'Stros to start Yusei Kikuchi. Which means the opposite could be true. Houston may go with Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, or Verlander against an opponent that struggles against right-handed pitchers.
Here's one more factor to consider. If the Astros find themselves in a three-game series in a win-or-go-home situation in Game 3, would anyone feel good about Verlander starting that game?
If JV isn't dominant over his remaining starts, there's no way he should get the nod over Arrighetti, Blanco, and Kikuchi. Despite his Hall of Fame resume.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we have an in-depth conversation about the Verlander conundrum the Astros are facing, and much more!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The Houston Astros entered the 2025 MLB Draft with limited capital but a clear objective: find talent that can help sustain their winning ways without needing a full organizational reboot. With just under $7.2 million in bonus pool money and two forfeited picks, lost when they signed slugger Christian Walker, the Astros needed to be smart, aggressive, and a little bold. They were all three.
A swing on star power
With the 21st overall pick, Houston selected Xavier Neyens, a powerful left-handed high school bat from Mt. Vernon, Washington. At 6-foot-4, Neyens is raw but loaded with tools, a slugger with plus power and the kind of bat speed that turns heads.
He’s the Astros’ first high school position player taken in the first round in a decade.
If Neyens develops as expected, he could be the next cornerstone in the post-Altuve/Bregman era. Via: MLB.com:
It’s possible we’ll look back at this first round and realize that the Astros got the best power hitter in the class. At times, Neyens has looked like an elite hitter who’d easily get to that pop, and at times the swing-and-miss tendencies concerned scouts, which is why he didn’t end up closer to the top of the first round. He was announced as a shortstop, but his size (6-foot-4) and his arm will profile best at third base.
Their next big swing came in the third round with Ethan Frey, an outfielder/DH from LSU who was one of the most imposing college hitters in the country.
He blasted 13 home runs in the SEC and helped lead the Tigers to a championship.
Filling the middle
In the fourth round, the Astros grabbed Nick Monistere, an infielder/outfielder out of Southern Miss who won Sun Belt Player of the Year honors.
If Kendall likes the pick, I like the pick. https://t.co/NQKqEHFxtV
— Jeremy Branham (@JeremyBranham) July 14, 2025
He doesn’t jump off the page with tools, but he rakes, hitting .323 with 21 home runs this past season, and plays with a chip on his shoulder.
They followed that up with Nick Potter, a right-handed reliever from Wichita State. He projects as a fast-moving bullpen piece, already showing a mature approach and a “fastball that was regularly clocked in the upper-90s and touched 100 miles per hour.”
From there, Houston doubled down on pitching depth and versatility. They took Gabel Pentecost, a Division II flamethrower, Jase Mitchell, a high school catcher with upside, and a host of college arms, all in hopes of finding the next Spencer Arrighetti or Hunter Brown.
Strategy in motion
Missing multiple picks, Houston leaned into two things: ceiling and speed to the majors. Neyens brings the first, Frey and Monistere the second. And as they’ve shown in recent years, the Astros can develop arms with late-round pedigree into major league contributors.
The Astros didn’t walk away with flashy headlines, they weren’t drafting in the top 10. But they leave the 2025 draft with a clear direction: keep the farm alive with bats that can produce and arms that can fill in the gaps, especially with the club managing injuries and an aging core.
If Neyens becomes the slugger they hope, and if Frey or Monistere climbs fast, this draft could be another example of Houston turning limited resources into lasting impact.
You can see the full draft tracker here.
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