It’s time to get real about Astros rotation, Verlander, and Houston’s battery of dominant arms

TOUGH DECISIONS

It’s time to get real about Astros rotation, Verlander, and Houston’s battery of dominant arms
Can Justin Verlander turn things around before it's too late? Composite Getty Image.

With only 19 games left in the regular season for the Astros, time is running out for Justin Verlander to justify a spot in the club's playoff rotation.

At best, he'll start another three games, with two of them likely against the lowly Angels. Not exactly a team similar to what Houston will face if they indeed make the postseason.

But at this point, Verlander needs to pass the eye-test before we even worry about the level of competition he'll be facing. JV's command is a huge issue. He's wild in the strike zone with his fastball, and also having trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes.

As much as we can blame some of his struggles on bad luck after returning from injury, his ERA for the season is over FIVE.

And more importantly, the Astros have better options to turn to when the playoffs begin. Naming the Astros No. 1 and No. 2 starters in the postseason is a no-brainer. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. So, at best, Verlander would be named the third or fourth starter, should they need one.

As of today, we just don't know how many games the Astros will play in their first playoff series. And we don't know how the rest of the rotation will pitch down the stretch. If the season were to end today, they would play a three-game series. So we'll discuss the top three starters for the time being.

Matchup over pitcher?

The Astros may choose to play the matchup when deciding on their Game 3 starter. If their opponent has trouble against lefties, that might influence the 'Stros to start Yusei Kikuchi. Which means the opposite could be true. Houston may go with Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, or Verlander against an opponent that struggles against right-handed pitchers.

Here's one more factor to consider. If the Astros find themselves in a three-game series in a win-or-go-home situation in Game 3, would anyone feel good about Verlander starting that game?

If JV isn't dominant over his remaining starts, there's no way he should get the nod over Arrighetti, Blanco, and Kikuchi. Despite his Hall of Fame resume.

This is one video you don't want to miss as we have an in-depth conversation about the Verlander conundrum the Astros are facing, and much more!

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Should the Rockets be active on the trade market? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this time could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.

The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,

OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.

Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.

Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.

Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.

What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.

Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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