BREAKING THE BANK?
Here's why we could see a shift in how the Houston Astros do business
Feb 10, 2023, 10:23 am
Kyle Tucker lost his arbitration case this week. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images.
Let's discuss 4 Houston Astros that must step up in Jose Altuve's absence
Coming off winning a World Series, the Astros did something no other team in their position has ever done. They replaced their general manager after not signing him to an extension. Owner Jim Crane and former GM James Click had philosophical differences. Crane is a gambler. He likes to swing for the fences and make splashes. Big moves to keep the train moving. Click is more of a penny-pinching methodical mover. He prefers to build through the draft, make minimal free agent moves, and take things slow. He saves money while building a contender. Crane likes to strike while the iron is hot, and be damned if it costs them long-term.
Finding someone who aligns with Crane's “go for it” mentality that can keep this avalanche rolling could prove to be difficult. Who'd want to work for an owner that got rid of his GM after winning a World Series? Enter Dana Brown. As the former Braves Vice President of Scouting (2019-2022), Brown is responsible for the Braves' core young talent (all homegrown, by the way) all being under team control through the next five to six seasons. Not only has he helped build a team that beat the Astros in the World Series in the 2021 season, he also helped them re-sign that homegrown core before they hit the open market and got priced out.
Brown is also “analytics savvy”, in Crane's words, and a former player. Former players hold a special place in Crane's baseball ideology. He has consulted with and hired special advisors like Reggie Jackson and Jeff Bagwell. Team manager Dusty Baker is a former player. So was his predecessor, AJ Hinch. Crane didn't become a billionaire by being dumb. He knows what works. When asked about Crane's apprehension at signing long-term contracts, Brown hinted at Crane having to “Fasten” his seatbelt and be ready.
Dana Brown made it pretty clear today that the Astros are exploring a number of contract extensions with their younger, arbitration eligible players. Asked if Jim Crane’s aversion to long-term deals could change, Brown replied “I told him ‘Fasten your seatbelt. It’s time.’”
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 9, 2023
This is a clear nod to Brown's penchant for re-signing young talent.
Enter Kyle Tucker. The guy once affectionately referred to as “Ted” because of his lefty swing, is up next. Yordan Alvarez was re-signed to a six-year, $115 million dollar deal last June. Getting him, the team's best hitter, at a shade less than $20 million a year in the prime of his career was brilliant. He'll be 31 in the last year of his deal in 2028. Tucker is 26 right now. If he's re-signed to a six-year deal starting next season, he'll be 32 in the last year of that contract. The thing is, at what value, or per year average, are we talking about with Tucker?
This is where Brown's expertise comes into play. I believe Tucker will get re-signed. He recently lost his arbitration case and is slated to make $5 million dollars this season.
However, Framber Valdez, Jeremy Pena, and a few others are all going to need to be re-signed too. Offering them contracts before they hit arbitration allows the team to get them locked in before they have to go to court and talk nasty to one another. That's where things go south when it comes to negotiations on both sides. That, or the player hits the open market and a bidding war ensues. I highly doubt Crane wants to overpay, despite his affinity for making big moves.
Point made in the story: Cristian Javier/Kyle Tucker/Framber Valdez are the focus for most, but the way Atlanta did business suggests that Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia and maybe even Hunter Brown could be on Dana Brown's extension radar - https://t.co/ypl4mpFimX
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 9, 2023
I expect Tucker to command around $25 million a year. His argument will be he's just as good a hitter as Yordan, but a much better defensive player. He could seek $30 million or so like George Springer got from the Blue Jays. However, I see him taking a decent offer from the Astros to stay in a winning organization. Alex Bregman took six years for $100 million before he got to arbitration or the open market. Jose Altuve got re-signed at a much higher rate, but he was a former AL MVP at that point. Times have changed. The price of the brick has definitely gone up. I believe the Astros will get their bricks at the right price before a drought hits. If not, they'll risk them going to Hamsterdam where the market will set the price.
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Left-hander Mitchell Parker threw seven shutout innings, and Luis Garcia Jr. had three singles and two RBIs and the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros 6-0 on Sunday.
The Nationals have won three of their past four series after starting the season 2-6.
After allowing two runs over five innings last Monday in his major league debut, a 6-4 win over the L.A. Dodgers, Parker (2-0) was even more effective in his second major league start, allowing three hits, striking out eight and walking none, throwing 57 of his 73 pitches for strikes.
“He has so much poise," Nationals manager Dave Martinez said. "He’s ready. He gets the ball, ready to get back on the mound. I watched him today. He threw a ground ball. The play was made and he got right on the mound and was holding his glove up as if, ‘hey, come on, give me the ball, like I’m ready to get back on there’. It was cool to watch. He understands what he wants to do.”
Parker mixed his 85-87 mph splitter, 81-82 mph curveball and 92 mph four-seam fastball. He struck out Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña a combined four times. Dylan Floro and Matt Barnes each added a scoreless inning for Washington.
Parker was thrilled to be able to throw the splitter for strikes, something that did not come as easy against the Dodgers.
“100 percent, yeah," Parker said. "We were able to get in there for more swings and misses. They were more competitive pitches. Going to keep working on it, seeing if we can keep it where it is at.”
Astros right-hander Hunter Brown replaced scheduled starter Cristian Javier, who was scratched from Sunday’s series finale with neck discomfort. Javier was placed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to April 14, and right-hander Spencer Arrighetti was called up from Triple-A Sugar Land.
Manager Joe Espada said they have not decided yet on an MRI for Javier.
“Neck discomfort, started a few days ago,” Espada said. “He tried to work through it but just couldn’t happen. This kind of just came out of nowhere. So, we are going to see what happens here.”
Brown allowed three runs and three hits and a walk in the first but then settled down, lasting four innings when his pitch count reached 84.
“Even in the first I felt like made some good pitches," Brown said. "Came to the outing prepared. Kind of did what I wanted to and it just didn’t fall our way there.”
García Jr.’s two-run single to center field highlighted the three-run first inning for the Nationals.
“We try to score every inning,' Garcia Jr. said through a translator. "But definitely when we score the first inning it gives you a different kind of sense of confidence throughout the game and it carries on through the games a different feeling.”
Joey Meneses had a bases-loaded two-run single to right field off Shawn Dubin in the fifth to make it 5-0. Nick Senzel hit his first home run of the season in the sixth to close out the scoring.
The Astros' tailspin continues, having lost five of their past six and nine of their past 12.
“It is not ideal in the situation that we are in but we are in this situation,” Espada said. “And we got to fight through this. We have guys in there who are capable of giving us innings and some of them are doing that. We are going back to playing the style of baseball that everyone sees the Astros play. We feel pretty good about the guys that we have in there to get us some good innings."
TRAINER’S ROOM
Astros left-hander Framber Valdez threw again Sunday and has a chance of starting one of the games in Chicago his week. “We will see how he feels,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “Once we see how he feels, we will start talking about the possibilities if he can pitch in Chicago or not.”
Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz said he is about “90 percent” recovered from the flu that placed him on the 10-day injured list on April 12. Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Ruiz will go on a rehab assignment this week to play a couple of games before returning to the club.
UP NEXT
Houston travels to Chicago to begin a three-game series against the Cubs on Tuesday. Espada confirmed JP France and Justin Verlander will start two of the games, but did not specify the order. Spencer Arrighetti, who was called up for Javier, is an option for the opener.
Washington has a day off before hosting the L.A. Dodgers on Tuesday night. Left-hander Patrick Corbin (0-3, 8.06 ERA) faces the Dodgers for the second consecutive start.