BREAKING THE BANK?
Here's why we could see a shift in how the Houston Astros do business
Feb 10, 2023, 10:23 am
BREAKING THE BANK?
Coming off winning a World Series, the Astros did something no other team in their position has ever done. They replaced their general manager after not signing him to an extension. Owner Jim Crane and former GM James Click had philosophical differences. Crane is a gambler. He likes to swing for the fences and make splashes. Big moves to keep the train moving. Click is more of a penny-pinching methodical mover. He prefers to build through the draft, make minimal free agent moves, and take things slow. He saves money while building a contender. Crane likes to strike while the iron is hot, and be damned if it costs them long-term.
Finding someone who aligns with Crane's “go for it” mentality that can keep this avalanche rolling could prove to be difficult. Who'd want to work for an owner that got rid of his GM after winning a World Series? Enter Dana Brown. As the former Braves Vice President of Scouting (2019-2022), Brown is responsible for the Braves' core young talent (all homegrown, by the way) all being under team control through the next five to six seasons. Not only has he helped build a team that beat the Astros in the World Series in the 2021 season, he also helped them re-sign that homegrown core before they hit the open market and got priced out.
Brown is also “analytics savvy”, in Crane's words, and a former player. Former players hold a special place in Crane's baseball ideology. He has consulted with and hired special advisors like Reggie Jackson and Jeff Bagwell. Team manager Dusty Baker is a former player. So was his predecessor, AJ Hinch. Crane didn't become a billionaire by being dumb. He knows what works. When asked about Crane's apprehension at signing long-term contracts, Brown hinted at Crane having to “Fasten” his seatbelt and be ready.
Dana Brown made it pretty clear today that the Astros are exploring a number of contract extensions with their younger, arbitration eligible players. Asked if Jim Crane’s aversion to long-term deals could change, Brown replied “I told him ‘Fasten your seatbelt. It’s time.’”
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 9, 2023
This is a clear nod to Brown's penchant for re-signing young talent.
Enter Kyle Tucker. The guy once affectionately referred to as “Ted” because of his lefty swing, is up next. Yordan Alvarez was re-signed to a six-year, $115 million dollar deal last June. Getting him, the team's best hitter, at a shade less than $20 million a year in the prime of his career was brilliant. He'll be 31 in the last year of his deal in 2028. Tucker is 26 right now. If he's re-signed to a six-year deal starting next season, he'll be 32 in the last year of that contract. The thing is, at what value, or per year average, are we talking about with Tucker?
This is where Brown's expertise comes into play. I believe Tucker will get re-signed. He recently lost his arbitration case and is slated to make $5 million dollars this season.
However, Framber Valdez, Jeremy Pena, and a few others are all going to need to be re-signed too. Offering them contracts before they hit arbitration allows the team to get them locked in before they have to go to court and talk nasty to one another. That's where things go south when it comes to negotiations on both sides. That, or the player hits the open market and a bidding war ensues. I highly doubt Crane wants to overpay, despite his affinity for making big moves.
Point made in the story: Cristian Javier/Kyle Tucker/Framber Valdez are the focus for most, but the way Atlanta did business suggests that Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia and maybe even Hunter Brown could be on Dana Brown's extension radar - https://t.co/ypl4mpFimX
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 9, 2023
I expect Tucker to command around $25 million a year. His argument will be he's just as good a hitter as Yordan, but a much better defensive player. He could seek $30 million or so like George Springer got from the Blue Jays. However, I see him taking a decent offer from the Astros to stay in a winning organization. Alex Bregman took six years for $100 million before he got to arbitration or the open market. Jose Altuve got re-signed at a much higher rate, but he was a former AL MVP at that point. Times have changed. The price of the brick has definitely gone up. I believe the Astros will get their bricks at the right price before a drought hits. If not, they'll risk them going to Hamsterdam where the market will set the price.
The Houston Astros return to Daikin Park on Tuesday night looking to keep their momentum going as they host the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET, with Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.78 ERA) on the mound for Houston against Detroit’s Reese Olson (3-1, 3.29 ERA).
Winners of seven of their last ten, the Astros (15-13) have found their rhythm after a rocky start to the season. Their recent surge has been fueled by dominant pitching — a 2.35 ERA over the last 10 games — and improved production at the plate, including a .264 team batting average over that span. Houston has also outscored opponents by 18 runs during that stretch and boasts a solid 10-6 record at home.
While the offense has yet to fully catch fire, signs of life are emerging. Jeremy Peña continues to be a steady presence with five doubles and three homers, while Christian Walker has driven in six runs over his last 10 games, including three long balls. The Astros’ bats will be tested against a Tigers staff that leads the American League with a 2.86 ERA.
Houston’s Tuesday starter, Ryan Gusto, has been sharp through his first five outings, posting a 1.10 WHIP and 23 strikeouts. He’ll look to keep Detroit’s bats quiet, especially red-hot Zach McKinstry, who’s hitting .406 over his last 10 games, and slugger Spencer Torkelson, who already has eight homers this season.
The Tigers (18-11) may sit atop their division, but they’ve struggled away from home, going just 5-8 on the road. The Astros will look to capitalize and even the season series in their second matchup with Detroit.
With the offense trending upward and the pitching staff in a groove, Houston has a prime opportunity to keep building momentum in front of the home crowd.
Here's a sneak peek at the Astros lineup. Altuve is once again batting second after asking manager Joe Espada to move him down in the batting order. Zach Dezenzo is playing right field with Cam Smith getting the night off. Jake Meyers is back in center field and Mauricio Dubon is starting at second base.
Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot
A big test awaits
It appears the Astros may have tipped their hand regarding tomorrow's starting pitcher. Chandler Rome is reporting AJ Blubaugh is at Daikin Park today.
The Astros are listed as TBA for tomorrow. Blubaugh last pitched on April 23. Connect the dots. https://t.co/AqPtmMtESd
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 29, 2025
Following Tuesday night's game, Blubaugh has been officially announced as the starter.
AJ Blubaugh will start tomorrow’s game against the Tigers. It will be his major-league debut.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 30, 2025
Espada said Hayden Wesneski is not injured but needs more time to recover from his last start.
*ChatGPT assisted.
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