END IN SIGHT?
Here’s some important clarity, comps regarding a possible Kyle Tucker resolution with Astros
Feb 21, 2023, 12:09 pm
END IN SIGHT?
How crazy is this? I’m feeling sorry for someone who will be paid $5 million for playing a children’s game this year.
That’s how much Kyle Tucker will make for batting sixth and patrolling right field for the Astros in 2023.
Only $5 million. That’s right … only.
Tucker lost his arbitration case against the Astros this month. Tucker thought his salary should be $7.5 million. The Astros countered by offering $5 million. A three-person panel ruled in favor of the Astros. So that’s what Tucker will make.
Only $5 million.
There are two ways to look at this. First, baseball’s arbitration process is insane and cruel. If the two sides (player and team) can’t come to terms on a contract, it goes to arbitration where a three-person panel hears both sides, one at a time for an hour each, plus a 30-minute rebuttal. Then the panel decides in favor of the player or the owner. There’s no negotiating, no compromising, no Mr. In Between.
One side wins, the other side loses.
Here’s the cruel part. After the player or his agent argues why the player deserves to be paid his asking price, a representative for the team argues why the team’s lower salary offer is more appropriate. According to the rules of arbitration, the player must be in the room when the two sides present their case. In other words, the player sits there and listens to the team say, “you ain’t that good and here’s proof.”
Who wants to hear that from someone you work for? Imagine you’re up for your yearly review. You’re sitting in the executive conference room with the company president and v.p. of human resources. You’re hoping for a nice fat raise because you had a heck of a good year.
Then in walks your middle management supervisor and rattles off reasons why you don’t deserve a raise. You messed up on this. You failed at that.
He does this right to your face. That’s baseball arbitration. It gets personal.
The three-person panel has certain criteria to consider in making its decision: the player’s on-field performance, the team’s success, attendance, the player’s special accolades and what other players with similar experience are earning.
And that’s why I’m shedding a metaphoric tear for Tucker.
The player’s on-field performance: Tucker crushed 30 home runs last year (for the second year in a row), drove in 107 runs, stole 25 bases (caught stealing only four times) and is one of the best fielding right fielders in baseball.
Team’s success: the Astros won the World Series for crying out loud!
Team’s attendance: the Astros averaged 33,197 fans at Minute Maid Park in 2022, an increase of nearly 8,000 fans per game over 2021.
Special accolades: Tucker made the American League All-Star team and won his first Gold Glove. He also smacked two home runs in the World Series and caught the final fly ball that started the victory celebration.
Here’s the clincher. How did Tucker’s asking price compare to other right fielders with similar experience?
As we noted, Tucker played 150 games, hit 30 dingers, drove in107 runs, stole 25 bags and is one of the best fielders in MLB. He was asking for $7.5 million for this season. OK, his salary was $764,200 in 2022, but what does that have to do with anything? He’s 26 years old, durable, entering his prime years, and already one of the top best players in the game.
Let’s compare Tucker to other right fielders with similar, or close to similar experience.
Mike Yastrzemski played 148 games and hit .214 with 17 homers and 57 RBI for the Giants last year. His career batting average is .242. Yastrzemski will make $6.1 million this season. The only place where Yastrzemski is more valuable than Tucker is on a Scrabble board.
Randal Grichuk hit .259 with 19 homers and 73 RBI for the Rockies last season. His career batting average is .247. He will make $10.3 million this year.
Hunter Renfroe hit .255 with 29 homers and 72 RBI for the Brewers last year. That’s impressive – almost Tucker’s numbers. Renfroe will make $11.9 million this year, more than twice Tucker’s pay.
Max Kepler hit .227 with nine home runs for the Twins last year. He is a career .232 batter. He will make $8.5 million this year.
Tucker didn’t hide his disappointment while talking with the media at spring training this week.
“It’s a little tough,” he told reporters. “We’ll see where it goes from here. The outcome wasn’t really what we were hoping for and I don’t think it was the right one. I wanted to fight for what my value was.”
Kyle Tucker is one of the Astros most important players now and a key to coming years. Although he’s not pleased how his arbitration case was decided, he will play, and play hard this season. He made it clear that he still loves the Astros, his teammates and playing in Houston.
Of course, the Astros can make his hurt feelings go away by offering a long-term contract with a big fat raise. Which I’m predicting they will do. With lots of zeroes and commas in the number. The Astros are smart. They know what’s good for them.
This week started on a high note for Astros fans as they were able to see Lance McCullers return and pitch in a game for the first time since 2022. McCullers looked good, only needing 13 pitches to get through the inning, and didn't allow any runs.
If McCullers continues on this path without any setbacks, we wouldn't be surprised if he's pitching for the big league club at the end of April or early May.
However, the outlook isn't nearly as positive for Luis Garcia, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Garcia was expected to throw a live BP on Thursday, but those plans have now changed. According to multiple reports, Garcia is dealing with elbow soreness and will now see team doctors for further evaluation.
Luis Garcia faced hitters in October and, almost all winter, was considered ahead of Lance McCullers Jr. in their rehab schedules. It's unclear how things have derailed. The Astros reiterated this week they will not make any member of their medical staff available for interviews https://t.co/rrBg6EaG7j
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) March 20, 2025
This isn't the first time Garcia has dealt with a setback in his recovery. As Chandler Rome mentions in the post above, Garcia was expected to be ready to return before McCullers. However, complications have apparently forced the Astros to slow down Garcia's rehab, making his status for this season even more uncertain.
Fortunately for Houston, they weren't counting on Garcia or McCullers to start the season in the rotation. But, they were hoping to have both return at some point this year to add more depth to the roster.
If Garcia is shutdown from throwing for several weeks, even in a best-case scenario, it's hard to imagine he'll be ready to contribute over the next three months. The Astros would be wise to play it safe with Garcia, the last thing they want to happen is for him to need another surgery.
This also serves as a reminder that pitchers often require more than the typical 12–18 months to recover. Which is why counting on Cristian Javier to contribute this season, feels like a big ask for a player that had Tommy John surgery in June.