How returning Houston Astros players impact trade, competitive dynamics
STONE COLD 'STROS
02 July 2024
Help is on the way. But not right away. Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Astros are officially back on track, climbing two games over .500 after beating the Blue Jays in the series opener on Monday. It's been impressive to see the team go on a run with several key players out of the mix due to injury.
And by the looks of how things currently stand, it doesn't appear any reinforcements will be arriving before the All-Star break. Astros manager Joe Espada told the flagship station on Tuesday that the club is going to be cautious with Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander.
Tucker is expected to start running soon, and Verlander is already soft tossing from sixty feet. But based on Espada's comments, we shouldn't expect Tucker and JV back before the break. They're hoping that when they do return, they'll be fully ready to play the rest of the season without any “hiccups.”
With Tucker out for likely another two weeks, we should get to see more from Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Trey Cabbage, and Joey Loperfido. All of which have had some big moments in recent days.
Espada also said Luis Garcia is scheduled to make a two inning start on Thursday with the Double A club. Lance McCullers could also be ready to return in early August (fingers crossed).
Fortunately for the Astros, Shawn Dubin pitched well in his spot start in New York. Espada told the flagship that Dubin has a good shot at making another start, depending on the state of the bullpen heading into the Twins game on Friday.
It was once believed Houston would have to look outside the organization for pitching help, and they still might. But don't expect a move to happen anytime soon. The Astros depth is holding up, so other teams don't hold all the leverage on GM Dana Brown if he's interested in making a deal.
Speaking of which, the Astros have been rumored to have interest in Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
And while we know Jim Crane loves to make a splash, it's hard to believe he would agree to exceeding the second tax threshold to secure the Blue Jays slugger.
Between Mauricio Dubon, Jon Singleton, and Joey Loperfido, first base doesn't feel like a priority. In the end, the Astros may view a trade as unnecessary with the returns of Verlander, Tucker, Garcia, Jake Bloss, and McCullers. Which could mean a very quiet trade deadline for Houston.
Considering the lack of depth in the farm system, this could be very beneficial in the big picture.
Finally, when looking at the schedule leading up to the All Star break, there are some great opportunities for the 'Stros. They can gain ground on the Twins in the Wild Card race, and push the Rangers further down the standings in the final series before the break.
And let's not forget the series with the division-leading Mariners coming out of the break.
Don't miss the video above as we break it all down!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And be on the lookout for bonus episodes on Thursdays!
- It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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