THE PALLILOG
How early evidence points to early Astros heavyweight main event
Feb 23, 2023, 7:23 pm
The Astros face the Mets this Saturday! Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images.
Houston Astros ALCS hype: Rising to the next level
The next major sign post on the road to the Astros’ regular season arrives Saturday with the spring training opener. If predicting the 2023 World Series matchup you could do a lot worse than casting your lot with an Astros-Mets Fall Classic. The Astros will meet the Mets in a decidedly lesser matchup Saturday at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. As fun as it might be to have just-turned-40 years old Justin Verlander throw his first pitch as a Met against the Astros, he won’t be making the bus trip south. In fact, the minimum number of legit Mets required to be in West Palm Beach figure to be on hand since the Mets are splitting their squad for the day with more notables certainly staying in Port St. Lucie for their home preseason opener.
So no Verlander mound sighting Saturday at the Astros game. Of much more significance, no Lance McCullers Jr. sighting on the mound at an Astros game for some time to come. This is not a surprise given Lance’s injury plagued career, but it’s still a bummer. Unless you’re Hunter Brown that is, since Brown now has a clear runway to fly in the Astros’ starting rotation out of the gate. McCullers is in season two of the five year 85 million dollar contract extension he signed in March 2021 that kicked in last season. Simple math tells you that’s 17 million dollars per season. Last season he made eight starts. They are calling it a mild elbow muscle strain, but the Astros have been publicly overly optimistic re: injuries in the past. We shall see. If McCullers can be healthy to join the rotation by May 1 that would be fine. He’s obviously just not built to be a durable workhorse. Only once in his career has McCullers answered the bell for more than 22 starts in a season (2021), only once has he thrown 130 innings in a season (also 2021). And that workload wrecked the majority of his 2022.
Hunter Brown flashed phenomenally in his first taste of the big leagues. Albeit over just 20 1/3 innings, a 0.89 earned run average seems decent. The simplest factor that will determine Brown’s ceiling is his ability to throw strikes. His stuff is unquestioned, but walking 45 batters in 106 innings (his numbers at AAA Sugar Land last year) is a tough ratio with which to be elite. There’s a good chance you saw the side-by-side clip in which Brown’s windup looked like a carbon copy of Justin Verlander’s.
Hunter Brown vs. (his idol) Justin Verlander, Mechanics. pic.twitter.com/x8AKa1Q90C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 6, 2022
There is a virtual zero chance Brown becomes Verlander. Brown has never shown the command of Verlander which has helped JV ascend near the level of Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver, two of the greatest power/control pitchers ever. Still, even if Brown peaks as a mid-rotation starter, the Astros have tremendous multi-year value with Brown ineligible for salary arbitration until the 2026 season.
Hunter Brown is 24 years old. When Verlander was 24 he went 18-6 for the Tigers and made his first All-Star team. In Clemens’s 24-year-old season, he won 20 games and his second consecutive Cy Young Award. When Seaver was 24 he won 25 games and led the Miracle Mets to the 1969 World Series title.
Slim and trim
Good to hear Martin Maldonado dropped about 15 pounds in the offseason. He won’t be stealing bases or legging out many infield hits, but if it helps him be a little more mobile behind the plate, that’s a good thing. Maldonado led the Major Leagues in passed balls last season. Along with age and playing through a hernia that was surgically repaired in the offseason, carrying extra weight didn’t make Maldy’s job any easier. In what is likely not entirely a coincidence re: the weight loss, Maldonado is in the last year of his contract. He turns 37 in August. If there is more juice to be squeezed from his career beyond 2023, being in better shape can only aid the cause.
Bad to hear Yordan Alvarez’s left hand is bothering him some, though it seems much more minor than McCullers's situation. The Cuban Missile Launcher had an issue with each hand during the course of last season.
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Capsules of American League West teams, listed in order of finish last year:
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Houston Astros
2024: 88-73, first place, lost to Detroit in Wild Card Series.
Manager: Joe Espada (second season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. New York Mets.
He’s Here: 1B Christian Walker, 3B Isaac Paredes, INF Luis Guillorme, RHP Hayden Wesneski.
He’s Outta Here: 3B Alex Bregman, RF Kyle Tucker, RHP Ryan Pressly.
Top Hitters: DH Yordan Alvarez (.308, 35 HRs, 86 RBIs, .959 OPS), C Yainer Diaz (.299, 16, 84, 29 2Bs), LF Jose Altuve (.295, 20, 65, 31 2Bs, 94 runs), 1B Christian Walker (.251, 26, 84, .803 OPS with Arizona), SS Jeremy Pena (.266, 15, 70, 28 2Bs).
Projected Rotation: LH Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), RH Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49), RH Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80), RH Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53), RH Hayden Wesneski (3-6, 3.86).
Key Relievers: LH Josh Hader (8-8, 3.80 ERA, 34 saves), RH Bryan Abreu (3-3, 3.10, 1 save), RH Tayler Scott (7-3, 2.23), LH Bennett Sousa (0-0, 4.00 in 2023), RH Kaleb Ort (1-1, 2.55, 1 save).
Outlook: The Astros should contend for a fifth straight AL West title despite trading outfielder Tucker and losing longtime third baseman Bregman in free agency. They made a major upgrade at first base with the addition of Walker after failing to find consistency there last season after the release of José Abreu. It will be interesting to see how Paredes fares in replacing Bregman and how Altuve’s move to left field will go after the veteran superstar played second base exclusively for his first 14 seasons. Valdez returns to lead a rotation that will start the season with several young arms but that could get a boost in the summer with the expected returns of Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia after both players had Tommy John surgery last year. General manager Dana Brown is confident that this team can have a bounce-back year and make another deep playoff run after losing to Detroit in the Wild Card round last season.
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Seattle Mariners
2024: 85-77, second place.
Manager: Dan Wilson (first full season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Athletics.
He’s Here: INF Donovan Solano, INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Yimi García, 3B Josh Rojas, 3B Luis Urías, 1B Justin Turner.
Top Hitters: CF Julio Rodríguez (.273, 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, .734 OPS, all career lows), C Cal Raleigh (.220, career-high 34, career-high 100). SS J.P. Crawford (career-low .202, 9, 37 in 105 games), DH Mitch Garver (.172, 15, 51), 2B Jorge Polanco (.212, 16, 45).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.64 ERA, 175 Ks in 175 1/3 IP), RH Logan Gilbert (9-12, 3.23, 220 Ks in major league-high 208 2/3 IP, major league-best 0.887 WHIP), RH Bryce Miller (12-8, 2.94), RH Bryan Woo (9-3, 2.89 in 22 starts), RH Emerson Hancock (4-4, 4.75 in 12 starts).
Key Relievers: RH Andrés Muñoz (3-7, 2.12 ERA, 22/27 saves, 77 Ks in 59 1/3 IP), RH Trent Thornton (4-3, 3.61), RH Colin Snider (3-4, 1.94), RH Troy Taylor (0-0, 3.72), LH Taylor Saucedo (2-0, 3.49, 3 saves).
Outlook: Seattle has finished with winning records in four straight seasons for the first time but has made the playoffs just once in that span, in 2022, when it was swept by Houston in the Division Series. The Mariners went 21-13 last year after Wilson replaced Scott Servais as manager on Aug. 22. The manager swap is likely the biggest change heading into opening day from 2024. Seattle’s most notable offseason additions included signing Solano and acquiring Mastrobuoni from the Chicago Cubs. The Mariners hope for a rebound by Rodríguez, who had just four homers and 21 RBIs through June. The lack of offense was a team-wide problem: Seattle hit .224, 29th among the 30 teams, ahead only the 121-loss Chicago White Sox. Right-hander George Kirby (13-10, 3.35, 172 Ks, 19 walks, MLB-low 1.084 walks per 9 innings) is likely to open the season on the injured list because of right shoulder inflammation, leading to an opening for Hancock to join the rotation.
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Texas Rangers
2024: 78-84, third place.
Manager: Bruce Bochy (third season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Boston.
Here’s Here: 1B Jake Burger, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Chris Martin, LHP Hoby Milner, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Jacob Webb.
He’s Outta Here: C Carson Kelly, OF Travis Jankowski, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP José Leclerc, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates.
Top Hitters: SS Corey Seager (.278, 30 HRs, 74 RBIs, .864 OPS), RF Adolis García (.224, 25, 85, 177 Ks), 2B Marcus Semien (.237, 23, 74), 1B Jake Burger (.250, 29, 76 with Marlins), DH Joc Pederson (.275, 23, 64 with Diamondbacks), OF Wyatt Langford (.253, 16, 74, 19 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80 ERA, 166 Ks in 170 2/3 IP), RH Jon Gray (5-6, 4.47), LH Cody Bradford (6-3, 3.54), RH Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.69 in three starts), RH Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.97).
Key Relievers: RH Chris Martin (3-1, 3.45 ERA, 2 saves in 45 appearances with Boston), RH Luke Jackson (4-3, 5.09 in 52 games with Giants and Braves), RH Jacob Webb (2-5, 3.02 in 60 appearances for Orioles), LH Hoby Milner (5-1, 4.73 in 61 appearances for Brewers), LH Robert Garcia (3-6, 4.22 in 72 appearances for Nationals), RH Dane Dunning (5-7, 5.31 in 26 games, 15 starts).
Outlook: The starting rotation is in good shape with Eovaldi re-signed, and two-time Cy Young Award winner deGrom and Mahle both making late-season debuts last year after recovering from elbow surgery. There is no defined closer after Yates left in free agency and with Josh Sborz rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but Martin joins his hometown team for a prominent role at the back end of a restructured bullpen. Burger and Pederson add pop to an offense that last year hit 57 fewer homers and scored one run less per game than when winning the franchise's first World Series title with Bochy in 2023. These Rangers may not be far off from at least having a shot at repeating a unique pattern for Bochy, who won three World Series crowns with San Francisco from 2010-14. After each of those first two titles, the Giants missed the playoffs the following year before coming back to win another one. Texas still has Semien, Seager and Jung on the infield. García seeks a bounce-back season in the outfield, likely joined out there by young standouts Langford and Evan Carter.
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Athletics
2024: 69-93, fourth place.
Manager: Mark Kotsay (fourth season).
Opening Day: March 27 at Seattle.
He’s Here: RHP Luis Severino, 3B Gio Urshela, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RH Jose Leclerc, INF Luis Urias, LHP Jacob Lopez.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Ross Stripling, 3B Abraham Toro, LHP Alex Wood, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Austin Adams, OF Daz Cameron, 3B J.D. Davis, SS Nick Allen, 1B Ryan Noda.
Top Hitters: DH Brent Rooker (.293, 39 HRs, 112 RBI, .927 OPS), C Shea Langeliers (.224, 29, 80, .739 OPS), OF Lawrence Butler (.262, 22, 57, .807 OPS), OF JJ Bleday (.243, 20, 60, .762 OPS), 2B Zack Gelof (.211, 17, 49, 25 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA with the New York Mets), LH JP Sears (11-13, 4.38), LH Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 3.27 with Tampa Bay), RH Osvaldo Bido (5-3, 3.41), RH Joey Estes (7-9, 5.01) OR RH Mitch Spence (8-10, 4.58).
Key Relievers: RH Mason Miller (2-2, 2.49, 28/31 saves, 14.4 Ks/9 IP), RH Jose Leclerc (6-5, 4.32, 1 save with Texas), LH T.J. McFarland (2-4, 3.81), RH Tyler Ferguson (4-2, 3.68, 2 saves).
Outlook: The A’s begin a temporary stay in the Sacramento area this season. They will play at least the next three seasons at a Triple-A stadium as they wait for their new home to be built in Las Vegas. Their final season in Oakland was emotional and showed some signs of progress with a 19-win improvement. The A’s increased their spending this offseason as they needed a higher payroll in order to get a full share in revenue sharing. Severino, Butler and Rooker all got deals worth at least $60 million after the franchise had handed out one deal that rich ever before this season. They should be competitive but still likely lack the depth of talent to compete for the postseason.
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Los Angeles Angels
2024: 63-99, fifth place.
Manager: Ron Washington (second season).
Opening day: March 27 at Chicago White Sox.
He’s Here: LHP Yusei Kikuchi, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Kyle Hendricks, C Travis d’Arnaud, 3B Yoán Moncada, INF Kevin Newman, SS Tim Anderson.
He’s Outta Here: 2B Brandon Drury, C Matt Thaiss, RHP Griffin Canning, LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Matt Moore.
Top Hitters: RF Mike Trout (.220, 10 HRs, 14 RBIs in 29 games), OF Taylor Ward (.246, 25, 75, .748 OPS), C Logan O’Hoppe (.244, 20, 56), SS Zach Neto (.249, 23 , 77, .761 OPS, 5.1 WAR), DH Jorge Soler (.241, 21, 64 with Giants and Braves).
Projected Rotation: LH Yusei Kikuchi (9-10, 4.05 ERA, 206 Ks with Blue Jays and Astros), LH Tyler Anderson (10-15, 3.81, 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 WAR), RH Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.42, 97 Ks in 113 innings), LH Reid Detmers (4-9, 6.70, spent three months at Triple-A Salt Lake), RH Kyle Hendricks (4-12, 5.92 for Cubs).
Key Relievers: RH Kenley Jansen (4-2, 3.29, 27/31 saves with Red Sox), RH Ben Joyce (2-0, 2.08, 33 Ks in 34 2/3 innings), RH Ryan Zeferjahn (0-0, 2.12, 18 Ks in 17 innings), RH Chase Silseth (0-1, 6.75 in two appearances).
Outlook: The Angels finished 2024 at rock bottom, losing a club-record 99 games and extending the majors’ longest streaks to nine consecutive losing seasons and 10 straight non-playoff seasons. The sole sign for optimism was solid play from youngsters O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Joyce and Nolan Schanuel. They’re all back to keep building, although Neto will start on the injured list after right shoulder surgery. Trout is healthy again after four consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the three-time AL MVP is moving from center to right field to preserve his health. Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell should be the primary center fielders. Anthony Rendon is already guaranteed to miss extended playing time for the fourth straight season after the $245 million third baseman announced he needs hip surgery. The rotation is headlined by newcomer Kikuchi, and longtime Dodgers closer Jansen could form a potent late-game combination with the fireballing Joyce.