THE PALLILOG
Getting late early: How critical series against Twins could define Astros season
May 31, 2024, 9:39 am
The Astros host Carlos Correa and the Twins this weekend at Minute Maid Park. Composite Getty Image.
The late, great Yogi Berra once said “it gets late early out here,” referring to having to deal with afternoon shadows when playing left field at Yankee Stadium late in his career. We can adapt that Yogi-ism to the Astros’ season. There are still more than a hundred games to be played, but the clock is ticking on the Astros’ getting their you-know-what together to the level of a playoff team. It could be getting late early here. Coming off a bad but not catastrophic loss of three out of four games in Seattle, the Astros remain within reasonable striking distance at five and a half games back of the American League West leading Mariners. Thursday wasn’t quite a must win but having gotten it for the difference between five and a half vs. seven and a half back is significant beyond the literal two games difference in the standings.
The Mariners’ starting pitching is presently obviously better than the Astros' starting pitching, though quality starts from Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti this week (albeit against Seattle’s feeble lineup) offer some hope. Seattle’s offense is inferior, but could improve via trade if the Mariners’ skin-flinty ownership authorizes spending some money to trade for a bat or two. The Mariners’ payroll is roughly 100 million dollars less than the Astros’. Seattle handling Houston to win five of the seven meetings so far this season means the Mariners take the tiebreaker by winning just two of the six remaining games. It’s unlikely right now that the Astros finish ahead of the second place Texas Rangers in the AL West much less overtake the Mariners.
Still, the Astros roaring from behind and winning this sub-mediocre division absolutely remains in play. If that is not to happen, that leaves pursuit of one of three wild card spots. Two of them are already extreme long shots. The Astros are a whopping eleven and a half games behind the Baltimore Orioles and nine and a half back of the surprising Kansas City Royals. Minnesota presently holds the third spot and that is why if the Astros fall on their faces this weekend, another Yogi-ism, “it’s not over ‘til it’s over,” will ring a bit hollow. The Astros are six and a half games back of the Twins as Carlos Correa and teammates visit Minute Maid Park for three games. Getting swept wouldn’t mean it’s quite last rites time, but gathering some priest phone numbers wouldn’t be unwise. Winning at least two of three from the Twins isn’t exactly essential, but the Astros can’t be dropping many more series at home this season, especially versus teams they hope to catch.
The offense needs a spark
Joe Espada continues to shortsightedly start 34-year-old Jose Altuve at second base virtually every game (55 of 57 games). All players will have both ebb and flow along the way, but within the last month Altuve has lost 60 points off of his batting average and more than 200 points off his OPS. He’s frankly been terrible for most of May with a .215 average and .549 OPS over his last 22 games. In conjunction with not hitting well, Altuve having drawn just two walks over those 22 games sticks out as well. Altuve has never struck out more than 91 times in a season. He is on pace to strike out 127 times this year. I repeat from my last column: Mauricio Dubon should get one start per week at second base.
If I told you that a healthy Yordan Alvarez would have a month in which he drove in only four runs, no way you’d have believed it. Maybe not even if I told you that Yordan had to bat right-handed for the month. Yet here we are. May expires Friday night and Yordan sits with a puny four runs batted in. A notable part of it is Altuve getting on base so infrequently. A more notable part is Alvarez’s woeful season numbers with runners in scoring position, .167 batting average with just 8 hits in 48 at bats. One way to get an RBI is to homer. Yordan has connected for just two dingers this month.
On the brighter side Jose Abreu returned to raise his batting average from .099 all the way to .111! Yeah.
So Altuve and Alvarez have both been substantially subpar this month. Alex Bregman’s season numbers upticked some this week but remain lousy, Yainer Diaz has done a bang-up Martin Maldonado impression at the plate for about six weeks now, and the Astros are 5-12 in one run games. They have already lost five games they led after seven innings (they lost only six such games all last season), yet they are still only five and a half games out of first. Pretty amazing. Pretty lucky. The Astros start the weekend on pace to finish 71-91. At the Mariners’ current pace, the Astros would need 87 wins to take the AL West. That would require a .590 winning percentage the rest of the way, which over 162 games produces 95 wins.
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What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
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